城镇化进程对沙漠化逆转趋势影响的动态计量分析——以宁夏盐池县为例

发布时间：2018-05-18 23:33

本文选题：城镇化 + 沙漠化逆转趋势　；参考：《中国沙漠》2017年05期

【摘要】：以典型沙漠化逆转区宁夏盐池县为例,对2003—2013年城镇化与沙漠化逆转趋势进行综合测度,利用ADF单位根检验、Granger因果检验、脉冲响应函数及方差分解模型就城镇化进程对沙漠化逆转趋势的动态影响进行分析。结果表明:(1)2003年以来,盐池县城镇化水平逐步提高,沙漠化逆转综合指数基本保持在0.3以上。(2)作为人文驱动因素,城镇化综合水平虽不直接对沙漠化逆转趋势产生作用,但其分量指标却对沙漠化逆转趋势及逆转压力的产生、状态的表现和响应的形成产生冲击。(3)从长期预测来看,沙漠化逆转趋势及分量指标受自身冲击的影响随时间的推移而逐渐减小,城镇化对沙漠化逆转的解释能力正在逐步提升,人口迁移、经济增长、社会进步和城镇化发展对逆转趋势、压力、响应和状态的冲击影响分别维持在78%、58%、13%和9%的水平上。未来盐池县城镇化的发展应当以人口城镇化、经济城镇化作为关键突破点,以促进农户非农生计的可持续性,提高城镇化对生态环境的促进作用。
[Abstract]:Taking Yanchi County of Ningxia, a typical desertification reversal area, as an example, this paper comprehensively measures the trend of urbanization and desertification from 2003 to 2013, and uses ADF unit root test to test Granger causality test. Impulse response function and variance decomposition model were used to analyze the dynamic effect of urbanization on the trend of desertification reversal. The results show that the urbanization level of Yanchi County has gradually increased since 2003, and the comprehensive index of desertification reversal has been kept above 0.3) as a human driving factor. Although the comprehensive level of urbanization does not have a direct effect on the reverse trend of desertification, the comprehensive level of urbanization has no direct effect on the reverse trend of desertification. However, its component index has an impact on the trend of desertification and the formation of reverse pressure, state performance and response. The trend of desertification reversal and the impact of its component index on desertification gradually decrease with the passage of time. The ability of urbanization to explain desertification reversal is gradually improving, population migration and economic growth are increasing. The impact of social progress and urbanization on reversing trend, pressure, response and state were maintained at the level of 78% and 9% respectively. In the future, the development of urbanization in Yanchi County should take population urbanization and economic urbanization as the key breakthrough points, in order to promote the sustainability of farmers' non-agricultural livelihood and the promotion of urbanization to the ecological environment.
【作者单位】：中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院沙漠与沙漠化重点实验室;中国科学院大学;中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(41471436) 国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0500909)
【分类号】：F299.27;X171.1

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