中国城镇化发展对生态环境的影响研究

发布时间：2018-05-20 00:36

本文选题：城镇化发展 + 生态环境　；参考：《吉林大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：城镇化是经济增长的强大支持动力,这一观点在学术界已经得到论证。在过去30多年,“高投入、高消耗、高增长、高排放、高污染”的发展模式虽然显著推进了我国城镇化的发展进程,但这种粗放型的发展道路给生态环境也带来了沉重的负担,我国正面临着资源约束趋紧、环境污染严重、生态系统退化的严峻形势。因此,城镇化发展的质量和生态环境逐渐成为学者和政策制定者关注的问题。经济发展的前提是保持良好的生态环境,因此现阶段深入研究两者之间的影响机制,有助于未来走出一条可持续的发展道路,同时将给我国城镇化和经济发展提供有益的参考,也具有一定的理论价值和实践意义。本文首先在借鉴以往学者相关理论和研究方法的基础上,以国际学术界较为流行的PSR框架为基础,应用因子分析法合成了我国生态环境综合指数,并以此分析历史发展状况。分析表明,我国的生态环境综合指数总体上呈现逐年增长的走势,经济进入新常态之后增速趋缓。其次,本文的实证分析选取了城镇化进程中人口城镇化、经济城镇化,分别代表总体发展速度和质量,建立TVP-VAR模型分析人口城镇化、经济城镇化和生态环境之间的时变特征。研究结果表明:人口城镇化对生态环境可以产生积极的作用,即根据目前所处的状态,人口向城镇地区转移将减少生态环境的负荷;另一方面,经济城镇化却对生态环境产生长期的负面影响,不利于人类经济和生活的可持续发展。进一步,本文结合中国经济发展的实际情况进行分析,得出中国城镇化发展对生态环境的最终动态影响是两者的合力作用,且在不同时期有不同的表现形式:经济新常态之前表现为经济城镇化占据主导地位;国家经济增速放缓后,经济城镇化所导致的负面影响呈现减小的趋势。第三,基于上述研究结论,本文提出相应的对策建议:调整我国现有的产业结构,实现产业升级,形成污染防治与环保技术开发并举的综合治理体系;同时户籍制度改革工作仍然是城镇化发展的重点,未来经济发展要力图在城镇化发展过程中实现经济增长和环境保护的双赢。本文的研究特点在于:一方面,本文充分考虑了生态环境这一指标的内涵,合成生态环境指数,较为全面准确地衡量我国生态环境的综合发展水平;另一方面,鉴于经济变量联动作用的动态性,本文使用了时变参数向量自回归(TVP-VAR)模型,从人口城镇化和经济城镇化的双重视角出发,捕捉城镇化发展对生态环境影响的时变特征,并指出二者的合力作用最终决定了城镇化对生态环境的影响。
[Abstract]:Urbanization is a powerful support for economic growth, this view has been demonstrated in academia. In the past 30 years or so, the development model of "high input, high consumption, high growth, high emission and high pollution" has significantly promoted the development process of urbanization in China, but this extensive development road has also brought a heavy burden to the ecological environment. Our country is facing the severe situation of resource restriction, environment pollution and ecosystem degradation. Therefore, the quality of urbanization and ecological environment has gradually become the concern of scholars and policy makers. The premise of economic development is to maintain a good ecological environment. Therefore, a thorough study of the mechanism of influence between the two at this stage will help to find a sustainable development path in the future, and at the same time will provide a useful reference for the urbanization and economic development of our country. Also has certain theory value and the practice significance. Based on the relevant theories and research methods of previous scholars, this paper, based on the popular PSR framework in the international academic circles, applies factor analysis method to synthesize the comprehensive index of ecological environment in China, and to analyze the historical development of the index. The analysis shows that the comprehensive index of ecological environment in our country is increasing year by year, and the growth rate of economy has slowed down after entering the new normal. Secondly, the empirical analysis of this paper selects population urbanization, economic urbanization, representing the overall development speed and quality, respectively, and establishes TVP-VAR model to analyze the time-varying characteristics between population urbanization, economic urbanization and ecological environment. The results show that: population urbanization can play a positive role in the ecological environment, that is, according to the current situation, the transfer of population to urban areas will reduce the load of ecological environment; on the other hand, However, economic urbanization has a long-term negative impact on the ecological environment, which is not conducive to the sustainable development of human economy and life. Further, this paper analyzes the actual situation of China's economic development, and concludes that the final dynamic impact of urbanization on the ecological environment is the combined effect of the two. And there are different forms of expression in different periods: before the new normal economy, the economic urbanization occupies the dominant position; after the national economic growth rate slows down, the negative influence caused by the economic urbanization shows a decreasing trend. Third, based on the above research conclusions, this paper puts forward the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions: adjust the existing industrial structure of our country, realize the industrial upgrading, and form a comprehensive management system of pollution prevention and environmental protection technology development; At the same time, the reform of household registration system is still the focus of urbanization development. In the future, economic development should strive to achieve a win-win situation between economic growth and environmental protection in the process of urbanization development. The research features of this paper are as follows: on the one hand, this paper fully considers the connotation of the ecological environment index, synthesizes the ecological environment index, and measures the comprehensive development level of our country's ecological environment more comprehensively and accurately; on the other hand, In view of the dynamic interaction of economic variables, this paper uses the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive TVP-VARmodel to capture the time-varying characteristics of the impact of urbanization on ecological environment from the dual perspective of population urbanization and economic urbanization. Finally, it is pointed out that the effect of urbanization on ecological environment is determined by their combined effect.
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X22;F299.21

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