晋城市城镇保障性住房需求研究

发布时间：2018-05-21 10:00

本文选题：晋城市 + 保障性住房　；参考：《山西财经大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：住房成为目前备受政府和社会各界关注的民生问题,一方面是受房地产市场经济发展过热的影响,另一方面是由于近几年各地商品房去库存现象居多,而城镇中低收入者住房需求尚得不到满足。政府为了解决城镇中低收入群体的住房困难,组织建设保障性住房,为其提供住房保障。保障性住房的建设和发展不仅关系到我国城镇中低收入人群的基本生活,也会对当地房地产经济的兴衰产生影响。当前我国经济发展迅速,伴随城镇化水平的不断上升,大量农村居民迁入城市,城市用地也日趋紧张,房地产经济过热,导致商品住宅价格也不断上涨。然而居民支付能力有限,住房资源紧缺,致使城市居民住房需求得不到满足,从而对保障性住房的需求越来越迫切。本文首先阐述了住房保障的相关理论,探讨衡量了影响晋城市城镇居民保障性住房需求的指标体系,分别选取5类宏观经济因素中具有显著代表性的指标。结合当地九年的原始数据,运用灰色关联度的方法,找出与保障性住房需求变化曲线相似度较大的指标,确定为关联性显著的影响因素。最后根据关联系数高低,得出结论,政府供给能力,居民收入水平,房地产业的投资额是影响城镇保障性住房需求的主要因素。本文在对当前保障性住房需求预测方面的研究成果进行提炼创新后,从城镇人口规模和居住水平改善两个不同角度预测了保障性住房的刚性需求和弹性需求。以九年原始数据作为实证研究基础,运用GM(1,1)模型,得出城镇人口数量的预测值和人均住房建筑面积的预测值,根据相关法规和当地的居民家庭结构的特点,测算了2016年至2020年间每年的保障性住房需求套数和总面积。
[Abstract]:Housing has become a livelihood issue of great concern to the government and all walks of life. On the one hand, it is affected by the overheated development of the real estate market economy, and on the other hand, it is due to the fact that in recent years there has been a large number of commercial housing destocking in The housing needs of urban low-and-middle-income people can not be met. In order to solve the housing difficulties of urban low-and middle-income groups, the government organizes the construction of affordable housing and provides housing security for them. The construction and development of indemnificatory housing is not only related to the basic life of low- and middle-income people in cities and towns, but also has an impact on the rise and fall of local real estate economy. With the rapid economic development of our country, with the rising of urbanization level, a large number of rural residents moved into the city, urban land is also increasingly tense, the real estate economy overheated, leading to the rising prices of commercial housing. However, because of the limited ability to pay and the shortage of housing resources, the housing needs of urban residents can not be met, so the demand for affordable housing is becoming more and more urgent. This paper first expounds the relevant theories of housing security, discusses and measures the index system that affects the housing demand of urban residents in Jincheng city, and selects five kinds of macroeconomic factors which have significant representative indicators. Based on the local nine years' original data and the method of grey correlation degree, the author finds out the index which is similar to the change curve of the supportable housing demand, and determines that it is a significant influence factor of relevance. Finally, according to the correlation coefficient, it is concluded that the government supply capacity, the income level of residents and the investment of real estate industry are the main factors that affect the demand for affordable housing in cities and towns. After refining and innovating the research results of the current research on the demand for affordable housing, this paper forecasts the rigid demand and the elastic demand of the supportable housing from two different angles: the size of the urban population and the improvement of the housing level. Based on nine years' original data and using GM1 / 1) model, the forecast value of urban population and per capita housing construction area is obtained. According to the relevant laws and regulations and the characteristics of local residents' family structure, the forecast value of urban population and per capita housing construction area is obtained. This paper calculates the number and total area of the annual housing demand from 2016 to 2020.
【学位授予单位】：山西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F299.23;D632.1

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