交通基础设施投资促进区域经济增长的阶段性差异研究

发布时间：2018-05-27 05:17

本文选题：交通基础设施投资 + 区域经济发展　；参考：《北京交通大学》2017年博士论文

【摘要】：本文试图回答的主要问题是:在处于不同经济发展阶段的区域中,交通基础设施投资对经济增长的促进作用是否存在差异,什么原因导致了这种差异的产生?对这一问题的研究有助于实现交通基础设施投资与区域经济的协调发展,对我国各地区交通基础设施规划和建设工作具有一定的指导意义。学者们长期以来一直非常关注交通基础设施投资对区域经济增长的促进作用,然而对促进作用阶段性差异的研究尚显不足。从亚当·斯密的《国富论》到保罗·克鲁格曼开创的新经济地理学都在关心交通基础设施和区域经济增长的关系问题。自从Aschauer (1989)将公共投资从总资本中分离出来,作为一个独立变量引入新古典经济学的总产出函数并进行计量经济分析之后,国内外学者在交通基础设施投资对经济增长的促进作用问题上进行了大量研究。其中一些研究已经注意到,在不同区域及其不同经济发展阶段,交通基础设施投资对经济增长的促进作用存在着差异。然而,已有研究对这一问题进行的深入分析还比较少,有必要进行更细致的探讨。为了深入分析交通基础设施投资促进区域经济增长的阶段性差异,论文基于杨小凯的新兴古典经济学分析范式,在区域竞争力理论和分工理论的基础上,首先探讨了交通基础设施投资对区域经济增长促进作用阶段性差异的形成原因和影响因素。之后,为了对我国各省交通基础设施投资促进区域经济增长的阶段性差异进行实证检验,论文又在区域竞争力理论指导下,借鉴已有研究对中国各省经济发展阶段的划分方法,构建了划分中国省域经济发展阶段的指标体系,并利用主成分分析方法,对中国各省的经济发展阶段进行了测度。最后,基于各省所处的不同经济发展阶段,建立了计量经济模型,从规模和结构变化两个角度对交通基础设施投资促进经济增长的阶段性差异进行了实证分析。通过理论分析发现,交通基础设施投资对经济增长的促进作用会受到经济规模、交通基础设施存量和其他投资回报率等因素的影响。其与经济规模和分工水平正相关,与交通基础设施存量负关系,与其他投资之间存在竞争性和替代性。交通基础设施投资投资之外的其他投资的经济回报越高,交通基础设施投资的经济成本越高,交通基础设施投资对经济增长的促进作用会越低。反之,当交通基础设施设施建设投资之外其他投资的经济回报率较低时,交通基础设施投资对经济增长的相对贡献便得以凸显,交通基础设施投资对经济增长的促进作用可以得到增强。随着区域经济发展阶段的演进,交通基础设施投资对经济增长的促进作用呈倒U型变化趋势。当区域处于要素导向阶段时,交通基础设施投资对区域经济增长的促进作用处于中等水平;当区域进入投资导向阶段时,交通基础设施投资对经济增长的促进作用明显提高;到转型阶段时,交通基础设施投资对经济增长的促进作用趋于下降;到创新导向阶段时,交通基础设施投资对经济增长的促进作用则比较微弱。不同运输方式和技术等级的交通基础设施投资对区域产业分工和经济增长的影响不同。低等级公路投资有利于区域内产业分工,铁路和高等级公路投资有利于区域间产业分工。在处于要素导向阶段的区域中,铁路和高速公路投资对比较优势产业的促进作用高于投资导向阶段和转型阶段的区域,低等级公路投资对非比较优势产业的促进作用低于转型阶段的区域。从交通基础设施投资结构对区域经济增长的影响角度看,铁路投资对创新导向阶段和转型阶段区域的经济增长的促进作用更强。低等级公路投资对投资导向阶段和要素导向阶段区域的经济增长的促进作用更强。论文的核心创新点在于探讨了交通基础设施投资对区域经济增长促进作用的推算方法、影响因素及其阶段性差异。论文将波特的区域经济发展阶段理论和分工理论结合起来,用分工结构演化解释区域竞争力的阶段性变化。同时,将交通基础设施投资和其他产业投资的替代关系引入了新兴古典经济学模型。在此基础上,论文在替代性视角下讨论了交通基础设施投资的最优规模问题,并在交通基础设施投资的最优规模基础上提出交通基础设施投资对经济增长促进作用的计算方法。论文还对不同分工结构条件下,交通基础设施投资对经济增长促进作用的影响因素进行了数值模拟分析,探讨了交通基础设施投资对经济增长促进作用表现出阶段性差异的理论原因。论文基于波特的经济发展阶段理论构建指标体系对中国各省所处的经济发展阶段进行划分,并建立计量经济模型对不同经济发展阶段的省份交通基础设施资本存量的产出弹性进行了估计,进而推算出了中国各省交通基础设施投资对经济增长的促进作用,证明了交通基础设施投资对经济增长促进作用阶段性差异的存在,也构成了本文的创新点。
[Abstract]:The main questions of this article are as follows: in the areas of different economic development stages, whether there is a difference in the promotion of the investment of transportation infrastructure to the economic growth, what is the cause of this difference? The transportation infrastructure planning and construction work in various regions of China has a certain guiding significance. Scholars have long been paying great attention to the role of transportation infrastructure investment in promoting regional economic growth. However, the research on the phase difference of promoting the role of transportation is still insufficient. From Adam J's "Guo Fu" to Paul Krugman The new economic geography is concerned about the relationship between the traffic infrastructure and regional economic growth. Since Aschauer (1989) separates the public investment from the total capital, as an independent variable introducing the total output function of the neoclassical economics and econometric analysis, the domestic and foreign scholars invest in the transportation infrastructure. A large number of studies have been carried out on the promotion of economic growth. Some of these studies have noticed that there are differences in the promotion of the investment of traffic infrastructure on economic growth in different regions and stages of economic development. However, the in-depth analysis of this problem is still relatively small and it is necessary to carry out more detailed analysis. On the basis of Yang Xiaokai's new classical economics analysis paradigm, this paper, based on the theory of regional competitiveness and the theory of division of labor, first discusses the stage differences in promoting the growth of regional economic growth on the basis of the theory of regional competitiveness and the division of labor theory. In order to make an empirical test on the phase difference of the regional economic growth in China's provincial transportation infrastructure investment, the paper, under the guidance of the regional competitiveness theory, drew on the division method of the economic development stage of China's provinces and constructed the division of the economic development stage in China. The index system and the method of principal component analysis are used to measure the economic development stage of China's provinces. Finally, based on the different economic development stages of each province, the econometric model is set up. From the two angles of scale and structure change, the phase difference between the investment of infrastructure investment to promote economic growth is empirically analyzed. Through theoretical analysis, it is found that the promotion of traffic infrastructure investment on economic growth will be influenced by economic scale, the stock of transportation infrastructure and other factors of return on investment. It is positively related to the scale of economy and the level of division of labor, and has a negative relationship with the stock of traffic infrastructure, and there is a competitive and alternative relationship with other investment. The higher the economic returns of other investment in transportation infrastructure investment, the higher the economic cost of investment in transportation infrastructure, the lower the promotion of investment in infrastructure investment to economic growth. Conversely, the investment of transportation infrastructure investment is low when the investment of other investment is lower than the investment of infrastructure facilities. The relative contribution of the economic growth to the economic growth can be highlighted, and the promotion of the infrastructure investment to the economic growth can be enhanced. With the evolution of the regional economic development stage, the promotion of the transportation infrastructure investment to the economic growth is inverted U trend. When the region is in the factor oriented stage, the investment of the transportation infrastructure is invested. The promotion role of the regional economic growth is at the middle level; when the region enters the investment oriented stage, the investment of transportation infrastructure investment promotes the economic growth obviously; in the transition stage, the promotion role of transportation infrastructure investment to economic growth tends to decrease; to the innovation oriented stage, the investment of transportation infrastructure investment is The effect of economic growth is relatively weak. The impact of transportation infrastructure investment with different transport modes and technical levels on regional industrial division of labor and economic growth is different. Low grade highway investment is beneficial to industrial division of labor within the region. The investment of railway and high grade highway is beneficial to inter regional industrial division of labor. In the region, the promotion of the investment of railway and highway to the comparative advantage industry is higher than that in the investment oriented and transition stages. The promotion of low grade highway investment to the non comparative advantage industry is lower than that in the transition stage. The promotion of economic growth in the innovation oriented and transition stages is stronger. Low grade highway investment has a stronger role in promoting economic growth in the investment oriented stage and the factor oriented stage. The core innovation of this paper is to discuss the calculation method of the promotion effect of transportation infrastructure investment to regional economic growth. In this paper, the thesis combines Potter's theory of regional economic development and division of labor theory and the division of labor structure to explain the stage changes of regional competitiveness. At the same time, the alternative relationship between the investment of transportation infrastructure and other industrial investment is introduced into the new classical economics model. On this basis, the thesis is on the basis of this paper. The optimal scale of investment in traffic infrastructure is discussed in the alternative perspective, and a calculation method for the promotion of transportation infrastructure investment to economic growth is put forward on the basis of the optimal scale of transportation infrastructure investment. The influence factors are analyzed by numerical simulation, and the theoretical reasons for the stage difference between the investment of traffic infrastructure investment and the promotion of economic growth are discussed. Based on the theory of Potter's economic development stage, the thesis divides the economic development stage of China's provinces and establishes the econometric model for different classics. The output elasticity of the capital stock of the provincial traffic infrastructure in the economic development stage is estimated, and then the promotion effect of the transportation infrastructure investment on the economic growth in all provinces of China has been calculated, which proves the existence of the phase difference in the promotion of the transportation infrastructure investment to the economic growth, and also constitutes the innovation point of this article.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F224;F124;F512.3

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