房价上涨有助于提高政府财政收入吗？

发布时间：2018-05-28 05:02

本文选题：房价 + 政府财政收入　；参考：《浙江大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来,我国房价快速上涨,房地产业保持高速发展的态势,在国民经济的比重也越来越大。地方政府热衷于发展房地产业,将其视为本地区支柱产业,认为房价上涨有助于本地区财政收入增加。但是,最近文献研究和经验观察告诉我们,房价上涨除带来正面效应之外,负面效应也日益显现。因此,我们不禁要问,房价上涨有助于提高政府财政收入吗?为了回答这一问题,.本文参考现有文献,首先从理论上探讨房价上涨对政府财政收入的影响机制,并提出五个基本假说。假说1:不考虑中央与地方分成机制,将中央和地方政府视为一个整体,房价对政府总财政收入存在正向效应,但随着时间推移,这一效应逐渐减弱,长期甚至消失;假说2:房价对制造业、其他服务业税收收入存在正向效应,但随着时间推移,这一效应逐渐减弱,长期甚至消失;假说3:房价对房地产业财政收入存在正向效应,但随着时间推移,这一效应逐渐减弱,长期依然为正;假说4:考虑中央与地方分成机制,房价对地方政府财政收入存在正向效应,但随时间推移,这一效应逐渐减弱,长期依然为正;假说5:房价对政府财政收入的影响存在区域异质性,表现为在房地产发展水平高的地区,房价的负效应可能会更加明显。其次,本文使用1998-2014年中国省级面板数据,从整体政府、地方政府和关联产业三个层面,对上述假说进行实证检验。结果表明,上述假说均被证实。特别地,本文有两大重要发现:第一,在长期,房价上涨不会影响政府总财政收入,但会增加地方政府财政收入,这从根本上回答了为何中央政府大力调控房地产,而地方政府却不愿配合中央执行房价调控政策这一重大问题。第二,房价上涨对政府财政收入的影响存在区域异质性。从长期来看,对于房地产发展水平高的地区,房价上涨不仅无法增加其地方财政收入,还会减少其政府总财政收入;对于房地产发展水平低的地区,房价上涨并不会对其地方财政收入和政府总财政收入产生影响。上述发现表明中央应当采取分区域的房价调控政策,特别是要加强对房地产发展水平高地区的调控。
[Abstract]:In recent years, China's housing prices are rising rapidly, the real estate industry maintains a rapid development trend, and the proportion of the real estate industry in the national economy is increasing. Local governments are keen to develop real estate as a pillar industry in the region, arguing that rising house prices will help increase revenue in the region. However, recent literature studies and empirical observations tell us that, in addition to the positive effects, the negative effects of rising house prices are becoming increasingly apparent. So we can't help asking, can rising house prices help raise government revenue? In order to answer this question. Referring to the existing literature, this paper first discusses theoretically the mechanism of the effect of house price rise on the government's fiscal revenue, and puts forward five basic hypotheses. Hypothesis 1: the central and local governments are regarded as a whole without considering the mechanism of central and local division, and the housing price has a positive effect on the total fiscal revenue of the government, but with the passage of time, this effect gradually weakens, and even disappears for a long time; Hypothesis 2: there is a positive effect of house price on the manufacturing industry and other service industry tax revenue, but with the passage of time, this effect gradually weakens, even disappears for a long time; hypothesis 3: housing price has positive effect on real estate revenue. However, over time, this effect gradually weakens and remains positive for a long time. Hypothesis 4: considering the mechanism of central and local division, housing prices have a positive effect on local government revenue, but over time, this effect gradually weakens. Hypothesis 5: there is regional heterogeneity in the influence of house price on government revenue, which shows that the negative effect of house price may be more obvious in areas with high real estate development level. Secondly, using the provincial panel data from 1998 to 2014, this paper empirically tests the hypothesis from three levels: the overall government, the local government and the related industry. The results show that all these hypotheses have been confirmed. In particular, this paper has two important findings: first, in the long run, rising house prices will not affect the total government revenue, but will increase local government revenue. This fundamentally answers why the central government has made great efforts to control real estate. But the local government is unwilling to cooperate with the central government to carry out the housing price control policy this important question. Second, the impact of rising house prices on government revenue exists regional heterogeneity. In the long run, for areas with high levels of real estate development, rising house prices will not only fail to increase their local fiscal revenues, but will also reduce their total government revenue; for areas with low levels of real estate development, Rising house prices will not have an impact on local revenue and total government revenue. The above findings suggest that the central government should adopt sub-regional housing price control policies, especially to strengthen the regulation and control of areas with high real estate development level.
【学位授予单位】：浙江大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F299.23;F812.41

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