电网企业物资需求预测技术研究及应用

发布时间：2018-06-01 21:12

本文选题：电网物资 + 物资需求预测　；参考：《华北电力大学(北京)》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着电力体制改革的进一步深化,国家电网公司“三集五大”建设的全面推进,物资集约化管理理念的提出,给电网企业物资管理提出了更高的要求。电网企业物资需求预测作为物资管理流程的信息起始点,是提升集约化管理水平的关键环节,而物资需求预测的准确性与及时性制约着物资管理水平的发展。对电网企业物资需求进行精准预测,一方面可以避免因多报而造成的资金积压、库存积压等现象,有效的提高物资集约化管理水平,另一方面对于提高电网企业核心竞争力也有着重要的意义,合理、科学的进行物资需求预测已逐步成为电网企业提升管理、谋求发展的重要课题。论文从物资需求计划的概念、内容、特点、制定方法等方面对物资需求计划进行了详细阐述。通过对国内外管理实践和技术应用实践分析,根据国际通行的预测方法和工具,对物资需求预测进行模型设计。在深入调研省级电网企业的基础上,针对其公司当前生产运营状况,构建出与之相适应的物资需求预测模型,促进物资需求计划更加科学合理高效,做到物资供应及时、成本消耗降低、仓储管理科学,促进物资管理水平的提升,进而深化公司物力集约化管理。通过建立物资需求管理的“三模型”,即物资需求影响因素模型、物资需求预测模型和物资类别匹配关系模型,形成一套差异化的年度物资需求预测模型体系,提高物资需求的准确性和及时性,提高采购效率和资金利用率。依据W省电网企业物资类别分类,运用相应的预测模型验证历史数据,对比需求预测的准确性,在此基础上预测未来两年的物资需求,最后得出结论并展望物资需求预测的应用前景,为辅助省级电网企业物资需求计划工作提供参考依据。
[Abstract]:With the further deepening of the reform of power system, the construction of "three sets and five big" in State Grid Company has been carried out in an all-round way, and the idea of intensive material management has been put forward, which has put forward higher requirements for the material management of power grid enterprises. As the information starting point of the material management process, the material demand forecast of the power grid enterprise is the key link to enhance the intensive management level, and the accuracy and timeliness of the material demand forecast restrict the development of the material management level. Accurate forecasting of the material demand of power grid enterprises can, on the one hand, avoid the overstock of funds and stocks caused by overreporting, and effectively improve the level of intensive material management. On the other hand, it is of great significance to improve the core competitiveness of power grid enterprises. Reasonable and scientific forecasting of material demand has gradually become an important subject for grid enterprises to enhance management and seek development. In this paper, the concept, content, characteristics and methods of material demand planning are described in detail. Based on the analysis of management practice and technology application practice at home and abroad, the model design of material demand forecasting is carried out according to the international common forecasting methods and tools. On the basis of in-depth investigation of provincial power grid enterprises, in view of the current production and operation situation of the company, a material demand forecasting model is constructed to promote more scientific, reasonable and efficient material demand planning, so that the material supply can be timely. The cost consumption is reduced, the storage management is scientific, the material management level is promoted, and the material resources intensive management of the company is deepened. Through the establishment of "three models" of material demand management, that is, material demand influencing factor model, material demand forecasting model and material category matching model, a set of differentiated annual material demand forecasting model system is formed. Improve the accuracy and timeliness of material requirements, improve procurement efficiency and fund utilization. According to the material classification of W province power grid enterprises, the historical data are verified by the corresponding forecasting model, and the accuracy of demand prediction is compared, and then the material demand in the next two years is predicted. Finally, the conclusion is drawn and the application prospect of material demand prediction is forecasted, which provides a reference for provincial power grid enterprises to plan material demand.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学(北京)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F426.61;F251

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