基础设施公私合作制（PPP）的影响因素实证研究

发布时间：2018-06-05 10:35

本文选题：基础设施 + 公私合作制　；参考：《江西财经大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：我国的经济改革开放至今的四十多年里经历了飞速的发展,在这个过程中,基础设施的供给不足长期以来一直制约着我国经济持续稳定发展,其中,严重短缺的基础设施有:环境保护类设施、城市基本建设设施、交通建设设施、水利设施等。我国基础设施的供给缺乏主要有以下几点缘由:首先,最直接的原因是我过长期以来资金投入严重不足,其次,本质原因是基础设施项目本身的特性——投资资金所需规模太大、投入建设至建设完成周期太长、投资回报率较低等,这两个原因使得长期以来基础设施制约着我国经济增长的难以突破的“瓶颈”。一方面,基于长期传统的“单一政府投资”中,公共部门为建设设施筹备资金会遇到各种弊端,例如影子成本、资金的使用效率低下、地方融资平台资金使用的严重浪费和巨大债务风险使得政府难以接承传统模式的基础设施投资、建设和运营。另一方面,“单一私有化”也存在不同程度的弊端——交易成本过高,政府监管困难,不完全契约导致的容易造成再谈判甚至违约风险。如何有效解决这些难题,并且发展出一条选择适合我国国情的基础设施投融资道路是当前迫切需要解决的课题。PPP融资模式,它通过吸引社会资本参与提供公共产品和服务,促进政府部门和私人部门的有效整合,充分发挥双方的公共和私人的优势,避免两者的弊端,从而实现社会福利的最大化和资源的最优配置。在“单一化”投资建设基础设施难以为继的形势下,PPP模式可以拓宽资金来渠道,缓解政府的财政压力,化解地方政府债务风险,促进政府职能转变,提高资金使用效率,提高公共物品的供给效率,因此成为中国的基础设施投资和融资是最好的选择之一。基于PPP融资模式在基础设施建设中的优势,中国也加紧提高PPP相关法律制度与组织建设,但是,我们不难发现,尽管近年来这一模式取得了成功,在引入PPP项目的过程中,各种问题已经显现在基础设施发展公私伙伴关系中。首先,并非所有发展中国家都能通过这一路线在基础设施项目中吸引所需的私人伙伴和投资。其次,PPP项目的落地率较低,甚至失败。最后,通过世界银行(World Bank)的统计数据,我们可以发现,各个发展中国家的基础设施PPP项目发展情况——包括PPP项目吸引的私人投资的项目个数、参与金额及项目融资成功与否等存在明显差异,这些差异存在的具体原因,值得我们探究。综上,为了能够保证我国的PPP项目有效完成,本文试图研究通过研究发展中国家吸引私人合作伙伴投资基础设施的影响因素,通过研究此问题,找出促使我国PPP融资模式效率提升的政策建议。本文从政府财政约束、区域政治环境、宏观经济环境、潜在市场规模、社会法律制度五大方面,以PPP项目的个数和金额作为被解释变量,首先以全球范围内的87个国家作为研究对象,选用了国家资源出口、各国人口、各国人均GDP、通货膨胀率、进口总储量、政府有效性、政治稳定、规制质量、法律体制、等作为指标,利用横截面单元1996-2014年的样本组成面板数据,考察全球范围的各国PPP融资模式影响因素,结果发现:政府财政约束、潜在市场规模和管制环境对基础设施公私伙伴关系的影响显著为正,可能是因为管制环境的完善将吸引私有企业积极参与基础设施项目。但是宏观经济的风险对基础设施公私伙伴关系的影响显著为负,可能是因为通货膨胀将成为私有企业参与基础设施项目的重要担忧。其次,针对中国的PPP影响因素,本文以30个省份为横截面单元(西藏除外),利用各横截面单元2012—2015年的样本组成面板数据,以政府负债、各国人口、各国人均GDP、通货膨胀率、市场化改革、财政分权、资本市场发达程度采用多元回归分析方法考察这些因素的具体作用效果。结果发现:政府财政约束、潜在市场规模宏观经济的稳定性是影响基础设施公私伙伴关系的重要因素。研究结果还表明,财政分权和资本市场发达程度也是施行基础设施公私伙伴关系的重影响因素。潜在市场规模越大表示需求越大,越有可能实施PPP项目;宏观经济越稳定表示项目实施风险越小,越有可能实施PPP项目;财政越分权表示地方政府的自主性越大,越有可能实施PPP项目;资本市场越不发达表示融资渠道狭窄,越有可能实施PPP项目。最后,根据国内外的PPP融资模式发展现状,以及本文的实证分析,文章提出了几点政策建议,转变政府职能,清晰界定政府定位加强宣传引导,鼓励公众参与推进PPP模式完善法律和政策体系,保障PPP顺利实施建立多层次的资本市场,改善投融资环境加快专门的管理机构建设。
[Abstract]:In the past more than 40 years, China's economic reform and opening up has experienced a rapid development. In this process, the shortage of infrastructure has long been restricting the sustained and stable development of our economy. Among them, the serious shortage of infrastructure, such as environmental protection facilities, urban infrastructure facilities, traffic construction facilities, water conservancy facilities, etc. The lack of infrastructure supply in China is mainly due to the following reasons: first, the most direct reason is that I have been seriously inadequate in capital investment for a long time. Secondly, the essential reason is the characteristics of the infrastructure project itself - the size of investment funds is too large, the construction period is too long, and the return on investment is low, these two For a long time, the infrastructure restricts the difficult "bottleneck" of China's economic growth. On the one hand, on the basis of the long-term traditional "single government investment", the public sector will meet various drawbacks for the construction facilities for the construction facilities, such as the shadow cost, the inefficient use of funds, and the strict use of local financing platforms. Heavy waste and huge debt risk make it difficult for the government to invest in infrastructure investment, construction and operation. On the other hand, "single privatization" also has some drawbacks - high transaction costs, difficulties in government regulation, and the risk of renegotiation and even breach of contract caused by incomplete contracts. How to effectively solve this problem Some problems, and the development of an infrastructure investment and financing road, which is suitable for our country's conditions, is an urgent need to solve the problem of.PPP financing model. By attracting social capital to provide public goods and services, promote the effective integration of government and private sectors, give full play to both the public and private advantages of both sides, and avoid the advantages of both the public and the private. In order to avoid the malpractice of the two, we can maximize the social welfare and optimize the allocation of resources. In the situation of the unsustainable infrastructure of "single" investment and construction, the PPP model can widen the financing channels, alleviate the financial pressure of the government, resolve the risk of local government debt, promote the transformation of government functions, improve the efficiency of the use of funds, and improve the efficiency of the use of funds. The efficiency of the supply of public goods is one of the best choices for China's infrastructure investment and financing. Based on the advantages of the PPP financing model in infrastructure construction, China has also stepped up the PPP related legal system and organization construction. However, it is not difficult to find that this model has been successful in recent years, and the PPP item is introduced. In the course of this process, various problems have emerged in the public private partnership of infrastructure development. First, not all developing countries can attract the required private partners and investment in infrastructure projects through this route. Secondly, the PPP project's landing rate is low and even lost. Finally, through the statistics of the World Bank (World Bank) According to this, we can find that the development of infrastructure PPP projects in various developing countries, including the number of private investment projects attracted by the PPP project, the amount of participation and the success of the project financing, are obviously different. The specific reasons for the existence of these differences are worthy of our inquiry. To sum up, in order to guarantee the PPP project of our country This article tries to study the influence factors of developing countries to attract private partners to invest in infrastructure. Through the study of this problem, we find out the policy suggestions to promote the efficiency of PPP financing mode in China. This article is from the government financial constraints, regional political environment, macro economic environment, potential market scale, social legal system. The five main aspects, taking the number and amount of the PPP project as the explanatory variable, first taking the 87 countries in the global scope as the research object, selected the export of national resources, the population of the countries, the per capita GDP of each country, the rate of inflation, the total import reserves, the government effectiveness, the political stability, the quality of regulation, the legal system, and so on as the index and use cross section. The panel data of 1996-2014 years are made up of the panel data to examine the factors affecting the global PPP financing model. The results show that the government financial constraints, the potential market scale and the regulatory environment have a significant impact on the infrastructure public private partnership, which may be because the improvement of the regulatory environment will attract private enterprises to actively participate in the infrastructure. But the impact of macroeconomic risks on infrastructure and private partnerships is significantly negative, perhaps because inflation will be an important concern for private enterprises to participate in infrastructure projects. Secondly, in view of the PPP impact factors in China, this paper takes 30 provinces as cross sectional units (except Tibet) and uses cross section unit 2012. - in 2015, the samples were made up of panel data. The effects of the government debt, the population of various countries, the per capita GDP, the rate of inflation, the market-oriented reform, the fiscal decentralization and the development of the capital market were investigated by multiple regression analysis methods. The results showed that the financial constraints of the government, the stability of the potential market scale macroeconomic stability were The results also show that financial decentralization and capital market development are also a major factor in the implementation of public and private partnerships in infrastructure. The larger the potential market size is, the greater the demand, the more likely the PPP project is to be implemented; the more stable the macro economy is, the smaller the risk of the project implementation. The more likely the PPP project is to be implemented, the more decentralization of the local government, the greater the autonomy of the local government, the more possible the implementation of the PPP project; the less developed the capital market indicates that the financing channels are narrow and the more likely the PPP project will be implemented. Finally, according to the current situation of the development of the PPP financing mode at home and abroad, and the empirical analysis of this article, some policy suggestions are put forward. To change government functions, clearly define government positioning and strengthen publicity and guidance, encourage public participation in promoting the PPP model to improve the law and policy system, ensure the smooth implementation of the PPP implementation of a multi-level capital market, and improve the investment and financing environment to speed up the construction of special management institutions.
【学位授予单位】：江西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F283

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