安徽省城乡协调发展水平的测度及其经济效应研究

发布时间：2018-06-08 13:12

本文选题：城乡协调发展 + 经济增长　；参考：《安徽工业大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：进入21世纪,中国经济快速增长与城乡发展不协调并存的局面引起了政界和学术界的广泛关注。城乡发展失衡的格局不仅限制了农村社会经济的发展,农业和农村的落后也将严重制约着工业、城市乃至整个国民经济的长期性发展。在此背景下,调整城乡关系,打破城乡失衡格局,在保障经济健康、稳定增长的同时缩小城乡发展差距,是中国当前乃至今后一段时期内发展的主旋律。然而,城与乡的发展差距有多大?城乡协调发展关系的构建是否更有利于经济持续增长?地域差异是否又决定城乡协调程度及其经济效应不同?当前安徽省整体经济发展水平及城乡发展水平远低于发达地区,区域内部城乡差距也持续扩大。鉴于此,本文以安徽省为例测算了各地区城乡综合发展水平和城乡协调发展水平,并在此基础上对其经济增长效应进行对比分析,以期找出适合安徽省城乡发展的路径。为准确区分城乡高水平均衡发展与低水平均衡发展的差别,本文从系统科学角度出发,基于城镇与农村两个子系统构建了全面衡量城乡协调发展水平的指标体系,并分别从时序和空间两个维度对安徽省各地区的城乡综合发展水平及城乡协调发展水平进行定量分析。测算结果表明,城镇群内部及农村群内部的综合发展水平差距逐渐拉大,且城镇群的表现尤为明显;各市城乡综合发展水平差别较大,既有城乡均衡发展水平较高的城市,也有城乡均衡发展阶段低水平的城市,甚至还出现了城乡极化发展的城市;各市城乡协调发展水平整体不高且空间差异显著,但总体趋好呈现梯度递增变化;城乡协调分项指标处于上升趋势,协调发展程度由高到低依次为生态建设、人口结构、居民生活、经济发展和社会服务。根据前文研究,再分别构建以城镇综合发展水平、农村综合发展水平和城乡协调发展水平为解释变量的经济增长模型,综合采用静态面板回归模型、动态面板回归模型以及面板门限回归模型进行实证分析。结果显示,城镇综合发展水平、农村综合发展水平和城乡协调发展水平对经济增长的影响均显著为正,但城乡协调发展的经济增长效应要明显大于城乡各自独立发展的经济增长效应;进一步探究发现,城乡协调发展水平对经济增长的影响具有非线性的双重门限特征,表现为中协调发展水平区间的经济增长效应高于高协调发展水平区间和低协调发展水平区间的经济增长效应。因此,本文的研究结论为城乡协调发展战略实施提供了强有力的理论支撑,同时建议要以经济发展和社会服务为重点方向、采取差别化政策分类推进城乡协调发展。
[Abstract]:In the 21st century, the rapid economic growth and the incoordination of urban and rural development in China have aroused the widespread concern of political and academic circles. The imbalance of urban and rural development not only limits the development of rural social economy, but also restricts the long-term development of industry, city and even the whole national economy. In this context, adjusting the relationship between urban and rural areas, breaking the pattern of imbalance between urban and rural areas, and narrowing the gap between urban and rural development while ensuring the healthy and stable growth of the economy are the main melody of the development of China at present and in a period of time to come. However, how big is the gap between urban and rural development? Is the construction of harmonious development relationship between urban and rural areas more conducive to sustained economic growth? Does regional difference determine the degree of urban-rural coordination and its economic effects? At present, the overall level of economic development and the level of urban and rural development in Anhui Province are far lower than those in developed regions, and the gap between urban and rural areas within the region continues to expand. In view of this, this paper takes Anhui Province as an example to calculate the comprehensive development level of urban and rural areas and the level of coordinated development of urban and rural areas, and on the basis of this comparative analysis of its economic growth effect, in order to find out the path suitable for the development of urban and rural areas in Anhui Province. In order to accurately distinguish the difference between urban and rural high level balanced development and low level balanced development, this paper sets up an index system to measure the level of urban and rural coordinated development based on the two subsystems of urban and rural from the perspective of system science. The comprehensive level of urban and rural development and the level of coordinated development of urban and rural areas in Anhui Province are analyzed quantitatively from two dimensions of time series and space. The results show that the gap between the level of comprehensive development within urban groups and rural groups is gradually widening, and the performance of urban and rural groups is particularly obvious, the level of urban and rural comprehensive development varies greatly, and there is a higher level of urban and rural balanced development of cities. There are also cities with low level of balanced development in urban and rural areas, and even cities with urban and rural polarization; the overall level of coordinated development between urban and rural areas is not high and the spatial differences are significant, but the overall trend of development is gradually increasing. The sub-index of coordination between urban and rural areas is on the rise. The order of coordinated development from high to low is ecological construction, population structure, residents' life, economic development and social services. According to the previous research, the economic growth model with the level of urban comprehensive development, the level of rural comprehensive development and the level of coordinated development of urban and rural areas as the explanatory variables are constructed respectively, and the static panel regression model is adopted synthetically. Dynamic panel regression model and panel threshold regression model are analyzed empirically. The results show that the comprehensive development level of cities and towns, the comprehensive development level of rural areas and the level of coordinated development of urban and rural areas have significantly positive effects on economic growth. However, the economic growth effect of coordinated development of urban and rural areas is obviously greater than that of independent development of urban and rural areas, and it is found that the influence of coordinated development level of urban and rural areas on economic growth has nonlinear double threshold characteristics. The economic growth effect of the middle coordinated development level is higher than that of the high coordinated development level and the low coordinated development level. Therefore, the conclusion of this paper provides a strong theoretical support for the implementation of urban-rural coordinated development strategy. At the same time, it is suggested that we should take economic development and social services as the key direction and adopt differentiated policies to promote the coordinated development of urban and rural areas.
【学位授予单位】：安徽工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F299.27;F327

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