住房财富效应的地区差异性研究

发布时间：2018-06-09 05:25

本文选题：房地产市场 + 住房财富效应　；参考：《湘潭大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：自1998年住房商品化改革以来,我国房价经历了一个十分迅速的增长过程。一方面是飙涨的房价,另一方面则是日益下滑的居民消费,我国居民消费率近十年来一直处于下降趋势,与发达国家相比仍然处于较低水平。在房价持续上涨、消费萎靡和我国经济发展进入“新常态”的大背景下,探讨房价波动对居民消费的影响及其背后隐含的经济学机理对于构建扩大居民消费需求的长效机制和成功跨越“中等收入陷阱”具有重要意义。再者,由于我国地区经济发展水平的巨大差异,房价变动所带来的住房财富效应往往存在较强的区域特征,住房财富效应的地区差异给房价调控和房地产政策的制定提出了巨大挑战,深入的考察住房财富效应的区域差异及其原因对于制定因地制宜的调控政策十分重要。本文基于消费经济理论、住房财富效应理论,利用35个大中城市2004年-2014年的宏观年度数据,借助FMOLS和门限面板回归等面板数据模型研究我国房改10多年以来的城市住房财富效应及其差异性。本文的主要研究结论如下:(1)整体来看,实证结果表明正向的住房财富效应是存在的,房价的上涨会使得居民消费增加,表明住房财富效应对居民消费能够产生正向效应。(2)从区域层面来看,东中西部城市的住房财富效应存在显著差异,东部城市的正向住房财富效应最为强烈,西部城市次之,而中部城市的住房财富效应是负向不显著的。(3)门限面板回归的结果表明,在不同的经济发展水平下,住房财富效应存在明显差异,表明房价变动所带来的财富效应对于居民消费的影响存在区间效应。本文从区域和经济发展水平差异的视角考察了住房财富效应的存在性及其地区差异性,并就如何制定差异化的房地产市场调控政策提出了具有针对性的政策建议。本文的研究结论为制定具有差异性和针对性的房地产调控政策和信贷政策提供了理论和数据支撑,对于促进我国房地产市场的平稳发展和居民消费的提升具有十分重要的现实意义。本文从宏观角度分析我国自住房改革以来各大中城市住房财富效应的存在性,特别是对地区差异性的研究是重点。根据现有文献地理区域主观划分样本存在的不足,本文以城市人均实际GDP水平作为门限变量,通过门限面板回归考察经济发展水平的差异对住房财富效应的影响;本文收集了35个大中城市的相关经济数据,构建面板数据模型,通过FMOLS模型解决了可能存在的内生性问题,使估计结果更为准确,实证结果也更具有说服力。
[Abstract]:Since the housing commercialization reform in 1998, China's housing prices have experienced a very rapid growth process. On the one hand, it is the soaring house price, on the other hand, the resident consumption is declining day by day. The consumption rate of our country has been on the downward trend in the past ten years, and it is still at a low level compared with the developed countries. Against the backdrop of rising house prices, sluggish consumption and the entering of a "new normal" in China's economic development, It is of great significance to explore the impact of house price fluctuation on residents' consumption and the underlying economic mechanism to construct a long-term mechanism to expand the consumption demand of residents and to successfully cross the "middle income trap". Furthermore, because of the huge difference in the level of regional economic development in China, the housing wealth effect brought about by the change of house prices often has strong regional characteristics. The regional difference of housing wealth effect poses a great challenge to the regulation of house price and the formulation of real estate policy. It is very important to investigate the regional difference of housing wealth effect and its causes in order to make the adjustment and control policy according to local conditions. Based on the theory of consumption economy and the theory of housing wealth effect, this paper uses the macro-annual data of 35 large and medium-sized cities from 2004 to 2014. With the help of FMOLS and threshold panel regression panel data model, this paper studies the urban housing wealth effect and its difference in China's housing reform for more than 10 years. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) as a whole, the empirical results show that the positive housing wealth effect exists, and that the rise of house prices will increase residents' consumption. It shows that housing wealth effect can produce positive effect on residents' consumption. (2) from the regional level, there are significant differences in housing wealth effect between east, west and west cities, while the positive housing wealth effect is the strongest in eastern cities, followed by western cities. However, the return of the threshold panel of the housing wealth effect of the central city is not significant. The results show that there are obvious differences in the housing wealth effect under the different economic development level. It shows that the wealth effect brought by the change of house price has an interval effect on residents' consumption. This paper examines the existence of housing wealth effect and its regional differences from the perspective of regional and economic development level differences, and puts forward targeted policy recommendations on how to formulate differentiated real estate market regulation and control policies. The research conclusions of this paper provide theoretical and data support for the formulation of different and targeted real estate regulation policies and credit policies. It is of great practical significance to promote the steady development of real estate market and the promotion of resident consumption. This paper analyzes the existence of housing wealth effect in large and medium-sized cities since the housing reform in China from a macro perspective, especially the research on regional differences is the focus. According to the shortcomings of the existing literature on the subjective division of geographical samples, this paper takes the actual GDP level of urban per capita as the threshold variable, through the threshold panel regression to investigate the impact of economic development level on the impact of housing wealth; This paper collects the relevant economic data of 35 large and medium-sized cities, constructs the panel data model, solves the possible endogenous problems by FMOLS model, makes the estimation results more accurate and the empirical results more convincing.
【学位授予单位】：湘潭大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F299.23

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