房价波动、平均消费倾向与商品零售价格--基于省际面板数据的实证分析

发布时间：2018-06-11 09:54

本文选题：房价 + 平均消费倾向　；参考：基于省际面板数据的实证分析

【摘要】：利用2000-2014年31个省、市、自治区的面板数据,实证分析了房价、平均消费倾向和商品零售价格之间的关系。结果显示:在不同经济区域内,房价上涨对各类商品零售价格的确存在不同的影响;房价波动对居民消费倾向的改变在不同的经济区域有显著差异;整体来说,平均消费倾向与生活类商品零售价格显著负相关。房价的持续上涨会抵销居民可支配收入上升的效应,购房压力使得居民消费能力难以跟上商品零售价格增长速度。文章从定量分析中得出政策含义,认为需要通过控制房价过快上涨才能提高居民的消费水平。
[Abstract]:Using panel data of 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions from 2000 to 2014, the paper empirically analyzes the relationship among house price, average consumption tendency and retail price. The results show that: in different economic regions, the rise of house prices does have different effects on the retail prices of all kinds of commodities; the fluctuation of house prices has a significant difference in the change of consumption tendency of residents in different economic regions; as a whole, The average consumption tendency is negatively correlated with the retail price of living goods. The continued rise in house prices will offset the effect of rising disposable income and the pressure to buy homes makes it difficult for residents to keep up with the growth rate of retail prices. This paper draws the policy meaning from the quantitative analysis, and thinks that the residents' consumption level can be improved only by controlling the housing price rising too fast.
【作者单位】：湘潭大学商学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金一般项目“我国家庭债务增长的经济社会效应与可持续性研究”(项目批准号:14BJL029) 湖南省社科规划办项目“中国家庭债务与财政支出冲击的动态效应研究”(项目批准号:16YBA335)
【分类号】：F299.23;F713.55;F726

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