我国货币供应量对房地产市场价格的影响研究

发布时间：2018-06-13 22:17

本文选题：货币供应量 + 房地产市场价格　；参考：《郑州大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：近十多年来,我国房地产的市场价格呈现出迅速上涨的趋势,房地产价格由2010年6月份的每平方米9042元上涨到2016年11月份的每平方米12938元,增幅约43.1%,许多地方的房地产价格已经远远超出当地居民的住房负担能力。与此同时,货币供应量各指标在此期间也快速增长。从货币供应量的角度来说,货币供应量的增加会通过金融加速器效应来放大市场上的资金量,过多的资金会借助不同渠道进入房地产领域,而近些年来房地产市场的投资回报率较高以及投资环境进一步完善也致使大批外资涌入市场中。我国货币供应量的快速增长是助推房地产市场价格不断攀升的重要原因。首先本文归纳总结了国内外研究学者对货币供应量和房地产市场价格的有关文献,研究发现不同学者借助不同的计量模型分析了货币供应量和房地产价格两者之间的关系,得到了大概一致的研究结论,也就是货币供应量的增加会引起房地产价格的上升。然后本文在梳理了我国货币供应量和房地产市场价格历年变动的情况下,以货币供应量对房地产市场价格影响的一般机理为基础,利用2010年6月-2016年11月的月度数据,建立了货币供应量、百城价格指数的向量自回归模型和基于插入利率数据的广义线性模型。通过研究发现,相比其他货币供应量月度指标QM、M2来说,QM—指标对百城价格指数的影响更为显著,而且货币供应量月度指标QM—对百城价格指数的解释力度更强,因此借助货币供应量月度指标QM—的统计数据能够增强对房地产市场价格波动的预测能力。最后,在一般机理分析和实证分析的基础上,提出应密切关注货币供应量月度指标QM—和房地产市场价格的波动情况,控制货币供应量的增速,同时通过其他宏观调控政策和货币政策的有效配合,来建立房地产市场调控的长效机制,推动我国房地产市场合理、健康有序的发展。
[Abstract]:Over the past decade or so, the market price of real estate in China has shown a rapid upward trend. The real estate price has risen from 9042 yuan per square meter in June 2010 to 12938 yuan per square metre in November 2016. Real estate prices in many places are already far beyond the affordability of housing for local residents, up about 43. 1%. At the same time, the money supply indicators during this period also rapid growth. From the point of view of money supply, the increase in money supply will amplify the amount of money in the market through the financial accelerator effect. Too much money will enter the real estate sector through different channels. In recent years, the high rate of return on investment in real estate market and the further improvement of investment environment have led to a large influx of foreign capital into the market. The rapid growth of money supply is an important reason for the rising of real estate market price. Firstly, this paper summarizes the literature on money supply and real estate market price, and finds that different scholars analyze the relationship between money supply and real estate price with the help of different econometric models. There is probably a consistent conclusion that an increase in money supply will lead to a rise in real estate prices. Then, this paper combs the change of money supply and real estate market price over the years, based on the general mechanism of the influence of money supply on real estate market price, using the monthly data from June 2010 to November 2016. A vector autoregressive model of money supply, a 100-city price index and a generalized linear model based on inserted interest rate data are established. Through the research, it is found that QM- index has more significant influence on the 100-city price index than other monthly money supply index QM-2, and QM-, the monthly money supply index, has a stronger explanation for the 100-city price index. Therefore, the statistics of QM-, a monthly measure of money supply, can enhance the ability to predict the volatility of real estate prices. Finally, on the basis of general mechanism analysis and empirical analysis, the paper puts forward that the monthly money supply index QM- and the fluctuation of real estate market price should be paid close attention to control the growth of money supply. At the same time, through the effective cooperation of other macro-control policies and monetary policies, the long-term mechanism of real estate market regulation and control is established to promote the rational, healthy and orderly development of China's real estate market.
【学位授予单位】：郑州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F299.23;F822.2

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