消费者住房偏好、政府调控压力与房价增长

发布时间：2018-06-15 20:41

本文选题：房价增长率 + 消费者住房偏好　；参考：《江西财经大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来热点城市房价涨幅巨大,消费者购房压力不断增加,因此“高房价”成为公众热议的话题。2016年12月召开的中央经济工作会议提出“房子是用来住的,不是用来炒的”。为遏制房价过快上涨,抑制消费者的住房投机性需求,近几年政府陆续采取了一系列措施调控楼市,但调控效果甚微。国内外学者对我国房价上涨的影响因素研究较多,主要集中于地价以及其它宏观经济变量对房价的影响研究,而对消费者的微观购房行为和地方政府对房价的调控关注较少。在此背景下,本文就消费者住房偏好和政府调控压力对房价增长的影响进行了系统的理论分析和实证研究。从理论上,本文构建了住房需求函数和住房供给函数。一方面,本文借鉴柯布-道格拉斯效用函数构造消费者住房偏好变量,进而构建文章的住房需求函数,研究消费者住房偏好对房价的影响。另一方面,地方政府作为土地供给的垄断者,可能为了提高当地经济增长等目的提高房价,但同时房价的快速上涨,无论从中央政府层面还是老百姓满意度层面都给地方政府带来了抑制房价过度上涨的压力。本文从地方政府调控房价的角度构造了政府调控压力变量,进而构建住房供给函数。通过住房需求和住房供给之间的均衡,本文就消费者住房偏好和政府调控压力这两个变量对房价增长的影响进行实证研究。从实证上,本文选取2005—2015年的35个大中城市房价作为研究对象,考察样本城市中消费者住房偏好和政府调控压力对房价增长的影响。通过实证研究可以发现:(1)消费者住房偏好增大会导致房价涨幅增大,而政府调控压力的增大在一定程度上抑制了房价的过快上涨。(2)政府调控压力和消费者住房偏好对房价增长存在显著的影响,且在东部,中部和西部三个地区差异十分明显。(3)本文将样本城市依据政府调控压力大小分组进行实证研究,发现只有在政府调控压力大的组中,消费者住房偏好显著地影响房价增长,而且政府调控压力大的组中消费者住房偏好变量参数值也较大,即在政府调控压力大的城市,消费者住房偏好对房价增长的影响更大。(4)消费者者住房偏好和政府土地供给存在显著的负向关系,即地方政府很可能会随着消费者住房偏好的增强而减少土地供应量。本文建议,政府应合理地引导消费者的住房需求,调整各产业的良性发展,使房价回归理性增长水平。
[Abstract]:In recent years, housing prices in hot cities have gone up dramatically, and the pressure on consumers to buy homes has been increasing, so "high house prices" have become a hot topic among the public. A central economic work conference held in December 2016 suggested that "houses are for living, not for speculation." In recent years, the government has taken a series of measures to control the property market, but it has little effect. Scholars at home and abroad have a lot of research on the influencing factors of the rise of house prices in China, mainly focusing on the land price and other macroeconomic variables on the impact of housing prices, but the micro-purchase behavior of consumers and the regulation and control of housing prices by local governments are less concerned. In this context, this paper makes a systematic theoretical analysis and empirical research on the impact of consumer housing preferences and government regulatory pressures on housing price growth. Theoretically, this paper constructs housing demand function and housing supply function. On the one hand, this paper uses Cobb-Douglas utility function to construct the consumer housing preference variable, and then constructs the housing demand function of this paper to study the impact of consumer housing preference on housing prices. On the other hand, local governments, as monopolists of land supply, may raise house prices in order to increase local economic growth, etc., but at the same time, housing prices are rising rapidly. Whether from the central government level or the satisfaction level of ordinary people, local governments have brought pressure to curb the excessive rise in house prices. This paper constructs the pressure variable of government regulation from the angle of local government regulating house price, and then constructs the housing supply function. Through the balance between housing demand and housing supply, this paper makes an empirical study on the impact of consumer housing preference and government regulatory pressure on housing price growth. From the empirical point of view, this paper selects 35 large and medium-sized cities from 2005 to 2015 as the research object, and investigates the influence of consumer housing preference and government regulation pressure on the housing price growth in the sample cities. Through empirical research, we can find that the increase in consumer housing preferences will lead to an increase in house prices. However, the increase of government regulation pressure to a certain extent has restrained the excessive rise in house prices. (2) Government regulation pressures and consumer housing preferences have a significant impact on house price growth, and in the east, In this paper, the sample cities are grouped according to the size of the government control pressure. It is found that consumer housing preference significantly affects the housing price growth only in the groups under the heavy government control pressure. Moreover, the parameter values of consumer housing preference variables in groups under heavy government regulation and control pressure are also larger, that is, in cities where government regulation pressure is high, (4) there is a significant negative relationship between consumer housing preference and government land supply, that is, local government may reduce land supply with the increase of consumer housing preference. This paper suggests that the government should reasonably guide the consumer's housing demand, adjust the benign development of various industries, and make the house prices return to the level of rational growth.
【学位授予单位】：江西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F299.23

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