资本账户开放对就业的门槛效应研究

发布时间：2018-06-19 04:40

本文选题：资本账户开放 + 就业　；参考：《世界经济研究》2017年11期

【摘要】：文章通过理论机制分析认为,资本账户开放通过经济增长、通货膨胀和经常账户波动三个渠道对一国的就业率产生影响。鉴于此,文章使用多门槛面板回归模型,对66个样本国家进行多层嵌套分组并分析了不同类型国家资本账户开放与就业的非线性关系。研究发现:首先,资本账户开放对就业确实存在门槛效应,且在人均GDP水平、通胀水平和经常账户余额三个门槛变量上都存在显著的双门槛效应;其次,资本账户开放对就业的影响与经常账户余额之间呈现非单调的关系;最后,不同类型国家资本账户开放的就业效应存在显著差异,为了提高就业率,一些新兴经济体可以适当推进资本项目的开放,对于部分发达国家应当加强对跨境资本流动的管制,而我国则应在逐步放开资本账户的同时维持经常账户的盈余以及深化金融市场的发展。
[Abstract]:Through the theoretical mechanism analysis, this paper argues that the opening of capital account has an impact on the employment rate of a country through three channels: economic growth, inflation and current account fluctuation. In view of this, the multi-threshold panel regression model is used to group 66 sample countries into multi-layer nested groups and the nonlinear relationship between capital account opening and employment in different types of countries is analyzed. It is found that: first, the capital account opening does have a threshold effect on employment, and there are significant double-threshold effects on the per capita GDP level, inflation level and current account balance. There is a non-monotonous relationship between the impact of capital account opening on employment and current account balances. Finally, there are significant differences in the employment effects of capital account opening in different types of countries, in order to increase the employment rate. Some emerging economies can appropriately promote the opening of capital accounts, and some developed countries should tighten controls on cross-border capital flows. China should keep the surplus of current account and deepen the development of financial market while liberalizing the capital account step by step.
【作者单位】：深圳大学经济学院;
【基金】：深圳市十三五规划一般课题项目“深圳市高新技术产业全要素生产率研究”(项目编号:135B012)资助
【分类号】：F249.1;F831.6

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