房地产投资对于中国东部地区轻工业的挤出效应研究

发布时间：2018-06-20 21:06

本文选题：轻工业 + 房地产投资　；参考：《江西财经大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来,我国房地产市场发展迅猛,带动上下游产业繁荣的同时也对我国GDP的增长产生了很大贡献,对我国工业企业的带动也不可否认。房地产企业的高速发展导致很多其他行业的企业也纷纷投身地产行业。2008年世界经济危机的爆发以及土地、劳动力、资金等要素成本不断攀升给中国工业企业带来了极大冲击甚至掀起了一场倒闭潮。而地产行业却依然保持着高速发展,其持续的高额利润吸引了来自TCL、格力、美的、海信、红豆、雅戈尔等诸多其他行业巨头的涌入。当前,我国工业发展面临极大挑战,尤其是温州、东莞等东部地区中小轻工业企业的倒闭潮更是引人深思,人们不禁要问工业企业的困境是否与房地产有关?房地产行业带动制造业发展的同时是否也给制造业带来了挤出效应?相对薄弱的轻工业是否受到了房地产行业的冲击呢?如果存在挤出效应,其大小是多少?为了研究中国东部地区房地产投资对轻工业的挤出效应,本文选取了我国东部7省1999—2014年的面板数据作为回归模型。其中,房地产投资额占GDP比重作为自变量,轻工业产值占GDP比重作为因变量,人均消费、人口、经济增长、出口作为控制变量。根据中国东部地区1998年房地产市场化改革之后的房地产投资额和轻工业产值分别占GDP的比重,通过构建面板数据模型证明了二者之间确实存在显著的负相关关系—即存在挤出效应。根据回归结果,得出在我国东部,房地产投资对于轻工业的影响系数大约为-0.2。这个结果表明:当前阶段在我国东部地区确实存在房地产投资对轻工业的挤出效应,每1%的房地产投资额占GDP比重的增加会导致接近0.2%的轻工业产值占GDP比重减少。基于以上研究分析,本文提出以下几点政策建议:1.当地政府应该要警惕房地产行业所带来的挤出效应,正确出台措施打击房地产市场中的炒房团、投机者,制定差异化的房贷政策,抑制土地市场的过度繁荣。2.国家和地方政府应该考察和衡量区域内未来是否适合发展轻工业,如果适合,在发展房地产行业和轻工业时应该充分考虑到当地轻工业发展水平以及受房地产投资挤出效应的大小,协调地产行业和轻工业发展,控制房地产行业的过度发展。如果不适合也应该考虑产业转移的方式及成本。3.要根据当地行业发展和经济依存度具体情况的不同具体问题具体分析,制定符合地区协调发展的行业相关政策,加强房地产调控的时效性和针对性。4.金融危机过后,由于中国轻工业普遍是劳动密集型,技术含量、利润率水平相对较低,而劳动力和土地要素价格的不断增加,使得轻工业的发展更需要国家给予一定的政策扶持,不能因为房地产行业和土地市场当前的高额利润而忽视轻工业的重要性。5.优化产业布局和结构调整,因地制宜发展当地轻工业,促进产业升级,加大对职业教育的投入,加强企业与研发机构的合作,以科技创新盘活传统轻工业,促使制造大国向制造强国转型。6.正确制定和合理调整相应金融政策,引导其支持中小轻工业企业的发展。加快中小轻工业企业信用政策的完善和推进,促进金融机构与中小轻工业企业之间普惠金融体系和担保体系的建立。构建较为完善的,能够为中小轻工业企业提供金融服务的资本市场。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the rapid development of China's real estate market has contributed to the growth of the upstream and downstream industries and contributed greatly to the growth of China's GDP. The rapid development of the industrial enterprises in China has led to the rapid development of the real estate enterprises in many other industries as a result of the outbreak of the world economic crisis in the real estate industry in the.2008 year. And the rising cost of land, labor, capital and other factors has brought great impact and even a collapse in Chinese industrial enterprises. But the real estate industry continues to develop rapidly, and its continuous high profit attracts the influx of many other industry giants, such as TCL, GREE, America, Hisense, red bean, YOUNGOR and so on. China's industrial development is facing great challenges, especially in Wenzhou, Dongguan and other eastern regions, the collapse of small and medium light industrial enterprises is more thought-provoking. People can not help asking whether the plight of industrial enterprises is related to real estate? Whether the real estate industry leads to the development of manufacturing industry has also brought the extrusion effect to the manufacturing industry? Relatively weak light industry What is the impact of the real estate industry? If there is an extrude effect, how much is it? In order to study the effect of real estate investment on light industry in eastern China, this paper selects the panel data from 7 provinces in eastern China from 1999 to 2014 as a regression model. In this case, real estate investment accounts for the proportion of GDP as an independent variable. Industrial output value accounts for the proportion of GDP as the dependent variable, per capita consumption, population, economic growth and export as control variables. According to the proportion of real estate investment and light industrial output value of GDP in eastern China in 1998, real estate investment and light industrial output value respectively. By building panel data model, it is proved that there is a significant negative phase between the two. In the eastern part of China, the impact coefficient of real estate investment on light industry is about -0.2.. The result shows that there is real estate investment effect on light industry in the eastern part of China, and the increase of the proportion of 1% real estate investment in GDP will lead to the increase of the proportion of real estate investment in the eastern part of China. Close to 0.2% of the light industrial output value of GDP is reduced. Based on the above analysis, this paper puts forward the following policy suggestions: 1. the local government should be vigilant about the extrude effect brought by the real estate industry, correct the measures to crack down the real estate market, the speculators, the differential housing policy, and the suppression of the land market. .2. countries and local governments should examine and measure the suitability of the future for the development of light industry in the region. If suitable, the development of the real estate industry and light industry should take full account of the local light industry development level and the size of the real estate investment extrusion effect, coordinate the development of the real estate industry and light industry and control the real estate industry The overdevelopment of industry. If it is not suitable, the mode and cost of industrial transfer should be considered and the.3. should be analyzed in accordance with the specific problems of the local industry development and economic dependence, and formulate relevant policies to coordinate the development of the region, strengthen the timeliness of the real estate regulation and the targeted.4. financial crisis, because China's light industry is generally labor intensive, technology content and profit margin are relatively low, and the constant increase in the price of labor and land makes the development of light industry more needed by the state to give certain policy support, and the importance of.5. optimization can not be ignored because of the current high profit of the real estate industry and the land market and the importance of neglecting the importance of light industry. Industrial layout and structural adjustment, local light industry to develop local light industry, promote industrial upgrading, increase investment in vocational education, strengthen cooperation between enterprises and R & D institutions, invigorating traditional light industry with scientific and technological innovation, promoting the manufacturing power to transform.6. to manufacturing power correctly and rationally adjusting the corresponding financial policy, guiding it to support medium and small light light. The development of industrial enterprises, accelerating the improvement and promotion of the credit policy of small and medium light industrial enterprises, and promoting the establishment of the inclusive financial system and guarantee system between the financial institutions and the small and medium light industrial enterprises, and building a more perfect capital market for providing financial services for small and medium light industrial enterprises.
【学位授予单位】：江西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F299.23;F426.8

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