转型期中国省际经济波动对经济增长的空间溢出效应

发布时间：2018-06-21 05:03

本文选题：空间溢出效应 + 经济波动　；参考：《统计研究》2017年05期

【摘要】：本文基于中国31个省市1979—2012年的数据,采用动态空间杜宾模型,实证分析转型期中国省际经济波动对经济增长的空间溢出效应及其形成机制,得出结论如下:经济波动在淘汰本地区低效率投资项目和企业、优化投资结构、从而对本地区经济增长产生正向直接效应的基础上,因受中国地区间激烈竞争和产业同构的影响,会吸引邻近地区的优质资源,对这些地区的投资结构产生不利影响,进而对经济增长产生负向空间溢出效应。并且,从动态视角的检验发现,相比于短期,两种效应在长期的作用更大。本文关于经济波动对经济增长空间溢出效应的研究对于解释中国经济波动与经济增长的关系机理,以及对于区域经济协同发展、加快国内市场一体化相关政策的制定具有重要意义。
[Abstract]:Based on the data of 31 provinces and cities in China from 1979 to 2012, using the dynamic spatial Dobbin model, this paper empirically analyzes the spatial spillover effect of interprovincial economic fluctuation on economic growth and its formation mechanism in the transitional period of China. The conclusions are as follows: the economic fluctuation is based on the elimination of inefficient investment projects and enterprises in the region and the optimization of the investment structure, thus having a positive and direct effect on the regional economic growth. Due to the influence of fierce competition and industrial isomorphism among regions in China, it will attract high-quality resources from neighboring regions, adversely affect the investment structure of these regions, and then produce negative spatial spillover effects on economic growth. Furthermore, from the dynamic point of view, it is found that the two effects are more important in the long term than in the short term. This paper studies the spatial spillover effect of economic fluctuation on economic growth. It explains the mechanism of the relationship between economic fluctuation and economic growth in China, as well as the coordinated development of regional economy. It is of great significance to speed up the formulation of policies related to the integration of the domestic market.
【作者单位】：教育部重点研究基地中国人民大学应用统计科学研究中心;中国人民大学统计学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重大项目“经济社会公共数据空间标准化与空间统计应用研究”(11&ZD157),国家社会科学基金青年项目“基于分位数回归的时空数据分析及应用研究”(12CTJ008)资助
【分类号】：F127;F224

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