满意度评估导向的积极就业政策优化问题研究
发布时间：2018-07-17 15:55
【摘要】：就业是民生之本,也是经济社会发展的永恒主题。为此,我国2002年启动了涵盖职业培训、职业介绍、小额担保贷款等诸多项目的积极就业政策,对于守住民生底线、维持社会稳定功不可没。近十年来每年几百亿的就业专项资金是否达到了预期效果、真正惠及了目标群体,需要对政策绩效进行科学准确的评估。但在实践上,我国长期仅仅关注就业率和收入指标,对满意度这一社会效益指标缺乏重视。在理论研究上,国内外学者针对积极就业政策这一领域的满意度评估尚为罕见,方法上也没有很好地控制个体自选择和地区异质性带来的内生性问题,同时尚未能形成多项目的评估体系,无助于个体在项目间的最优选择。基于此,本研究在Rubin因果模型框架下,以人力资本投资理论、自雇佣理论和幸福经济学理论为基础,借助2008年世界银行积极就业计划抽样调查和2014-2015补充调查数据,以职业培训和小额担保贷款项目为例,进行积极就业多项目的满意度评估。首先采用多层模型和倾向值匹配法同时控制个体及地区异质性造成的选择偏差,然后基于匹配后的平衡样本并综合宏微观信息,评估两项目满意度相对绩效,并探究个体特征、地区特征与项目自身特征三者影响满意度的不同机理。实证研究发现:1.积极就业项目实施并不是随机分配的,个体自选择和地区异质性对项目相对效应影响显著。个体层面上,工作单位在城市的、女性失业者更倾向于参加培训,年长、健康、城镇户口、中高学历、工作经验丰富、党员身份的人群更倾向选择小贷;地区层面上,失业率越高、就业支出增长率越高的地区则越青睐小贷项目。个体自选择和地区异质性分别使培训相对效果被低估0.09和0.04分,真实的两项目满意度差异接近0.24分。2.项目效果差异还来自于宏微观因素造成的反应差异。从项目平均相对绩效来看,微宏观变量作用于不同项目满意度的传导机制、方向及程度均有差别,城镇户籍、非党员身份等微观特征对小贷项目满意度有正向作用,对培训项目则是负向作用;高增长率、高失业率和收入分配公平等宏观层面因素对培训项目满意度有促进作用,对小贷项目满意度的影响则相反;小贷项目的较高满意度评价主要来源于个体工作信心的提升,培训项目则来自于生活水平的改善,且均不来源于收入的增加。从项目满意度边际效应来看,各因素影响力度大小由高满意度区间向低满意度区间呈逐渐减弱的趋势。3.年龄、性别、就业支出增长率等在进行项目选择时重点考虑的因素对满意度的影响并不显著,而影响满意度的经济增长率和不公平程度等因素对项目选择影响甚微,反映了政府进行项目对象事前甄选时没有遵循满意度导向,而可能是以就业率、收入等客观绩效为纲,“逆向分配”大大削弱了积极就业项目对社会维稳的作用。据此,提出三点政策建议:一是建立专业化的积极就业政策第三方评估机构,构筑宏微观信息相结合的多项目评估体系;二是完善各项目对象甄选机制,优化区域间组合分配,建立项目对象信息大数据库,精准施策;三是坚持政策评估的满意度导向,打造“回应型”政府,具体又包括畅通民意诉求渠道、建立有效回应机制和加强项目评估成果的转化。通过以上措施,助力资源最优配置和社会公平稳定的实现。
[Abstract]:Employment is the foundation of the people's livelihood and the eternal theme of economic and social development. In 2002, China started the active employment policy of many projects, including vocational training, career introduction, small guarantee loan and so on. It can not be ignored for keeping the bottom line of the people's livelihood and maintaining social stability. In the past ten years, there have been hundreds of billions of special employment funds per year. The expected effect, which really benefits the target group, needs a scientific and accurate assessment of the policy performance. However, in practice, our country is only paying attention to the employment rate and income index for a long time, and lack of attention to the social benefit index of satisfaction. In theoretical research, the domestic and foreign scholars are still evaluating the satisfaction of the positive employment policy in this field. It is rare to control the endogenous problems of individual self selection and regional heterogeneity, and not to form a multi project evaluation system, which is not conducive to the optimal choice between individuals. Based on this, the research is based on the theory of human capital investment, self employment theory and happiness economics under the framework of Rubin causality model. On the basis of the theory, with the use of the 2008 World Bank positive employment plan sampling survey and 2014-2015 supplementary survey data, the job training and small guarantee loan projects are taken as an example to evaluate the satisfaction of the positive employment multiple projects. First, the multi layer model and the tendency matching method are used to control the selection deviation caused by the individual and the regional heterogeneity simultaneously. Then, based on the matched balance sample and integrated macro and micro information, the relative performance of the two project satisfaction was evaluated, and the individual characteristics, the regional characteristics and the project self characteristics three affected the different mechanisms of satisfaction. The empirical study found that the implementation of 1. positive employment projects was not randomly assigned, individual self selection and regional heterogeneity were the same. The relative effect of the project is significant. On the individual level, the working unit is in the city, the female unemployed are more inclined to take part in the training, the years, the health, the urban residence, the high education, the working experience, the party members' status, more inclined to choose small loans; the higher the area level, the higher the unemployment rate and the higher the employment expenditure growth rate, the smaller the favor is smaller. The individual self selection and regional heterogeneity make the relative effectiveness of the training underestimated 0.09 and 0.04 points respectively, and the real two project satisfaction differences are close to 0.24.2.. The difference in the effect of the project is also derived from the response differences caused by macro and micro factors. From the average relative performance of the project, the micro macro variables play a role in the transmission of the satisfaction of different projects. The mechanism, the direction and the degree are different. The micro characteristics of the urban household registration and non party membership have positive effect on the satisfaction of the small loan projects, and the negative effect on the training projects. The macro level factors such as high growth rate, high unemployment rate and income distribution equity have a promoting effect on the satisfaction of the training projects, and the impact on the satisfaction of the small loan projects is the same. The higher satisfaction evaluation of the small loan projects mainly comes from the improvement of individual job confidence, and the training projects come from the improvement of the living standard and not from the increase of income. From the point of view of the marginal effect of the project satisfaction, the size of the influence of each factor is gradually weakened from the high degree of satisfaction to the low degree of satisfaction in.3. years. The factors such as age, sex, employment expenditure growth rate and so on are not significantly affected by the factors that focus on the selection of the project, but the economic growth rate and the unfair degree affecting the satisfaction have little influence on the project selection, which reflects that the government does not follow the satisfaction orientation in the selection of the project object before the project selection. On the basis of objective performance such as industry rate and income, "reverse distribution" greatly weakened the effect of active employment on social stability. Accordingly, three policy suggestions were put forward: first, the establishment of a professional positive employment policy third party evaluation institutions, the construction of a multi project evaluation system combined with macro and micro information; and two to improve the selection of various project objects. In order to optimize the distribution of interregional combination, establish a large database of project object information, and set up a precise policy, three is to adhere to the satisfaction orientation of the policy assessment, create a "response type" government, and specifically include the channel of unimpeded public opinion appeal, the establishment of an effective response mechanism and the transformation of the project evaluation into fruit. Through the above measures, the optimal allocation of resources is made. And the realization of social fairness and stability.
【学位授予单位】：中南财经政法大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F249.2
本文编号：2130167
[Abstract]:Employment is the foundation of the people's livelihood and the eternal theme of economic and social development. In 2002, China started the active employment policy of many projects, including vocational training, career introduction, small guarantee loan and so on. It can not be ignored for keeping the bottom line of the people's livelihood and maintaining social stability. In the past ten years, there have been hundreds of billions of special employment funds per year. The expected effect, which really benefits the target group, needs a scientific and accurate assessment of the policy performance. However, in practice, our country is only paying attention to the employment rate and income index for a long time, and lack of attention to the social benefit index of satisfaction. In theoretical research, the domestic and foreign scholars are still evaluating the satisfaction of the positive employment policy in this field. It is rare to control the endogenous problems of individual self selection and regional heterogeneity, and not to form a multi project evaluation system, which is not conducive to the optimal choice between individuals. Based on this, the research is based on the theory of human capital investment, self employment theory and happiness economics under the framework of Rubin causality model. On the basis of the theory, with the use of the 2008 World Bank positive employment plan sampling survey and 2014-2015 supplementary survey data, the job training and small guarantee loan projects are taken as an example to evaluate the satisfaction of the positive employment multiple projects. First, the multi layer model and the tendency matching method are used to control the selection deviation caused by the individual and the regional heterogeneity simultaneously. Then, based on the matched balance sample and integrated macro and micro information, the relative performance of the two project satisfaction was evaluated, and the individual characteristics, the regional characteristics and the project self characteristics three affected the different mechanisms of satisfaction. The empirical study found that the implementation of 1. positive employment projects was not randomly assigned, individual self selection and regional heterogeneity were the same. The relative effect of the project is significant. On the individual level, the working unit is in the city, the female unemployed are more inclined to take part in the training, the years, the health, the urban residence, the high education, the working experience, the party members' status, more inclined to choose small loans; the higher the area level, the higher the unemployment rate and the higher the employment expenditure growth rate, the smaller the favor is smaller. The individual self selection and regional heterogeneity make the relative effectiveness of the training underestimated 0.09 and 0.04 points respectively, and the real two project satisfaction differences are close to 0.24.2.. The difference in the effect of the project is also derived from the response differences caused by macro and micro factors. From the average relative performance of the project, the micro macro variables play a role in the transmission of the satisfaction of different projects. The mechanism, the direction and the degree are different. The micro characteristics of the urban household registration and non party membership have positive effect on the satisfaction of the small loan projects, and the negative effect on the training projects. The macro level factors such as high growth rate, high unemployment rate and income distribution equity have a promoting effect on the satisfaction of the training projects, and the impact on the satisfaction of the small loan projects is the same. The higher satisfaction evaluation of the small loan projects mainly comes from the improvement of individual job confidence, and the training projects come from the improvement of the living standard and not from the increase of income. From the point of view of the marginal effect of the project satisfaction, the size of the influence of each factor is gradually weakened from the high degree of satisfaction to the low degree of satisfaction in.3. years. The factors such as age, sex, employment expenditure growth rate and so on are not significantly affected by the factors that focus on the selection of the project, but the economic growth rate and the unfair degree affecting the satisfaction have little influence on the project selection, which reflects that the government does not follow the satisfaction orientation in the selection of the project object before the project selection. On the basis of objective performance such as industry rate and income, "reverse distribution" greatly weakened the effect of active employment on social stability. Accordingly, three policy suggestions were put forward: first, the establishment of a professional positive employment policy third party evaluation institutions, the construction of a multi project evaluation system combined with macro and micro information; and two to improve the selection of various project objects. In order to optimize the distribution of interregional combination, establish a large database of project object information, and set up a precise policy, three is to adhere to the satisfaction orientation of the policy assessment, create a "response type" government, and specifically include the channel of unimpeded public opinion appeal, the establishment of an effective response mechanism and the transformation of the project evaluation into fruit. Through the above measures, the optimal allocation of resources is made. And the realization of social fairness and stability.
【学位授予单位】：中南财经政法大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F249.2
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