中国区域物流发展水平评价及时空演变研究

发布时间：2018-07-27 12:38

【摘要】：现代物流业作为一种融合了运输、仓储、货代、信息等产业的复合型服务业,已成为社会经济发展中的重要环节,在吸纳就业、促进生产、拉动消费等方面有着重要作用。作为一种基础性、战略性产业,现代物流业的合理、健康发展,对产业结构调整、转变经济发展方式等有着重要的促进作用,能够促进经济的快速发展,增强经济发展实力。为了鼓励物流业发展,各级政府相继出台了一系列政策和措施,并着手对区域物流布局进行优化,促进物流的区域一体化发展。伴随着电子商务、快递业的迅速发展,互联网消费市场也不断繁荣,这些都促进了物流业的发展。与此同时,我国的社会物流总费用占GDP比重却远远高于美、日等发达国家,也高于部分发展中国家,高额的物流成本严重制约了我国物流业的健康发展,造成相关行业运输成本上升,同时也影响到经济的稳步发展。当前,世界经济疲软,我国经济发展也进入了新常态,经济增速减缓,产能过剩,经济结构面临优化升级,创新驱动逐步超越要素、投资驱动成为主要发展动力。与此同时,我国适时提出了“一带一路”战略,确定了与沿线国家主要的合作重点,并对国内主要区域和城市进行了战略定位,使我国的社会经济发展得遇新的突破口和增长点,经济社会经济的发展离不开物流业的积极服务。因此,我国物流业将迎来巨大的发展机遇,各级政府对现代物流业的重视程度逐年提升,投入力度不断加大。但对全国的物流水平、差异程度、空间布局等的发展状况和演变过程缺乏详尽的了解和认知,所以很有必要对我国的区域物流发展状况进行合理研究。对于区域物流的科学评价,有利于认识和把握区域物流的发展现状及规律,为物流业发展制定科学合理的区域布局优化方案及有效的政策措施。鉴于此,本文以中国大陆31个省级行政区为研究对象,选取2000、2005、2010和2015年四个时间断面来研究我国区域物流发展水平及时空演变规律。本研究的主体包括以下四个部分:首先,基于对国内外有关区域物流的文献梳理及相关理论研究,结合我国经济及物流发展基本情况,从经济实力、基础设施、物流规模、产业政策、信息水平和物流人才六个方面,选取24个指标构建了我国区域物流发展水平的评价体系。其次,对我国区域物流发展的现状进行研究,发现全国物流发展水平的区域差异特征明显,具体表现在东部沿海省区物流发展水平高,中西部地区物流发展水平低下。东部省区在经济实力、基础设施、物流规模、产业政策、信息水平和物流人才等方面均有较高的发展水平,发展较为均衡,而中西部省区在这些方面均缺乏优势,但发展潜力较大。再次,对我国区域物流发展及时空演变进行研究,发现我国区域物流发展迅速,但区域间的物流发展速度差异明显,且区域物流发展的总体差异呈减小趋势。从2000-2015年,全国物流发展水平的平均值由2000年的0.0493上升到2015年的0.2646,16年间增长了5.38倍,物流发展迅速;区域物流发展水平的变异系数由2000年的0.7646逐步降至2015年的0.6902,总体差异呈减小趋势,区域间物流发展水平呈均衡发展态势;区域物流发展水平从高到低由沿海向内陆依次递减空间布局,其趋势不断加强,且表现出较强的集聚性,沿海省区与长江沿线省区形成了“T”字型的物流空间布局结构,且在此“T”字型轴线上产生了五个大的物流圈,即珠三角物流圈、长三角物流圈、环渤海物流圈、长江中游物流圈和成渝物流圈,沿海的区域物流逐步由“轴”发展成为更具活力的“带”。但全国区域物流发展的全局空间自相关性不太明显,全局Moran’s I指数从2000年的0.2115降至2015年的0.1641,区域物流发展的集聚性呈现减弱态势。最后,运用障碍度模型,从经济实力、基础设施、物流规模、产业政策、信息水平和物流人才方面分析了影响我国区域物流发展的障碍因素,发现经济实力、物流规模、基础设施是主要的障碍因素,且其障碍度随时间发展略有上升的趋势。产业政策、信息水平、物流人才是次要障碍因素,其中信息水平、产业政策的障碍度略有下降。另外,进出口贸易总额、国民生产总值是经济发展因素中的主要障碍因子。港口货物吞吐量、机场货邮吞吐量是物流规模因素中主要的障碍因子。单位面积内河航道里程、单位面积公路营运里程是基础设施方面的主要障碍因子。互联网普及率是信息水平因素中主要的障碍因子。而产业政策、物流人才对区域物流发展的障碍相对较小,但仍起着不可忽视的关键性作用。
[Abstract]:Modern logistics industry, as a combination of transportation, warehousing, freight forwarding, information and other industries, has become an important link in the social and economic development. It plays an important role in absorbing employment, promoting production and stimulating consumption. As a basic, strategic industry, the rational and healthy development of modern logistics industry and the industrial knot. In order to encourage the development of the logistics industry, governments at all levels have introduced a series of policies and measures in order to encourage the development of the logistics industry. And we also begin to optimize the distribution of regional logistics and promote the regional integration of logistics. The rapid development of business, express industry and the continuous prosperity of the Internet consumption market have promoted the development of the logistics industry. At the same time, the proportion of the total cost of social logistics in our country is far higher than that of the United States, and the developed countries such as Japan are also higher than some developing countries. The high logistics cost seriously restricts the healthy development of the logistics industry in our country, and the high cost of logistics has seriously restricted the healthy development of the logistics industry in our country. At present, the world economy is weak, the economic development of our country has also entered the new normal, the economic growth is slowing down, the economic structure is overcapacity, the economic structure is facing the optimization and upgrading, the innovation driven step by step is the key factor and the investment drive has become the main driving force. Meanwhile, China is timely. The strategy of "one area and one road" is put forward, the main focal point of cooperation with the countries along the line is determined, and the strategic positioning of the major regions and cities in China is carried out so that the social and economic development of our country will meet the new breakthrough and growth point. The development of economic and social economy can not be separated from the active service of the logistics industry. Therefore, the logistics industry in our country will usher in a huge amount. With the opportunity of development, the government at all levels has paid more attention to the modern logistics industry, and the investment is increasing. However, there is no detailed understanding and cognition about the development and evolution of the national logistics level, the degree of difference and the spatial distribution, so it is necessary to make a reasonable Study on the development of regional logistics in China. The scientific evaluation of regional logistics is beneficial to understanding and grasping the current situation and law of regional logistics development, making a scientific and rational regional layout optimization scheme and effective policy measures for the development of the logistics industry. In view of this, this paper takes 31 provincial administrative regions in mainland China as the research object, and selects four time sections of 200020052010 and 2015 to study The main body of this study includes the following four parts: first, based on the literature of regional logistics at home and abroad and related theoretical research, combined with the basic situation of China's economic and logistics development, from economic strength, infrastructure, logistics scale, industrial policy, information level and logistics Six aspects of talent, select 24 indicators to build the evaluation system of the development level of regional logistics in China. Secondly, the current situation of regional logistics development in China is studied. It is found that the regional difference characteristics of the national logistics development level is obvious, which is manifested in the high level of logistics development in the eastern coastal provinces, and the low level of logistics development in the central and western regions. The eastern provinces have a high level of development in economic strength, infrastructure, logistics scale, industrial policy, information level and logistics talents. The development of the central and western provinces is more balanced, but the central and western provinces are lack of advantages in these areas, but the development potential is great. The regional logistics development is rapid, but the regional logistics development speed difference is obvious, and the overall difference of regional logistics development is decreasing. From 2000-2015 years, the average value of the national logistics development level increased from 0.0493 in 2000 to 2015 in 0.2646,16, and the flow of material flow developed rapidly; the variation of regional logistics development level From 0.7646 in 2000 to 0.6902 in 2015, the overall difference is decreasing, the level of regional logistics development shows a balanced development trend, and the development level of regional logistics is gradually decreasing from the high to low from the coastal to the inland, and the trend is constantly strengthened, and it shows a strong agglomeration. The coastal provinces and provinces along the Yangtze River are formed. The "T" type of logistics space layout structure, and on this "T" axis produced five large logistics circles, namely the Pearl River Delta logistics circle, the Yangtze River Delta logistics circle, the Bohai logistics circle, the logistics circle of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and the Chengdu Chongqing logistics circle, the coastal regional logistics gradually developed into a more dynamic "belt" by the "axis". The global spatial autocorrelation of logistics development is not very obvious, the global Moran 's I index has dropped from 0.2115 in 2000 to 0.1641 in 2015, and the agglomeration of regional logistics development is weakened. Finally, the impact of the obstacle model is analyzed from the aspects of economic strength, infrastructure, logistics scale, production policy, information level and logistics personnel. The obstacle factors of the development of regional logistics in China have found that the economic strength, the logistics scale, the infrastructure are the main obstacle factors, and the obstacles are slightly rising with time. Industrial policy, information level, logistics personnel are secondary barriers, the level of information and the barriers of industrial policy have slightly decreased. In addition, import and export trade Total gross national product (GNP) is the main obstacle factor in economic development factors. Port cargo throughput, airport and postal throughput are the main obstacle factors in logistics scale factors. The mileage of river channel in unit area, road operating mileage per unit area is the main obstacle factor in infrastructure. The Internet popularity rate is the level of information. The main obstacle factor of the factors is the industrial policy. The logistics talents have relatively little obstacles to the development of regional logistics, but they still play a key role that can not be ignored.
【学位授予单位】：西南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F259.27

【参考文献】