中国经济增长的动力转换与政策选择
发布时间：2018-07-29 20:19
【摘要】：研究目标:探究经济增长动因结构及转换趋势。研究方法:基于中国1980~2014年三次产业的时间序列数据,构造结构指数生产函数,采取指数分析与对数分析相结合的方法进行实证研究。研究发现:2008年以来全要素生产率贡献缩减是经济增长大幅减速的最主要因素;要素规模增长率下降与产出弹性缩减的双重挤压导致资本和劳动力规模贡献下滑;资本和劳动生产率增长双减速是造成全要素生产率大幅下降的主导因素;全要素生产率增长动力从以产业要素生产率的提升为主转向以产业之间要素配置结构的优化为主。研究创新:从三次产业的要素规模和效率进行考察,三个层次层层推进,为经济增长动力及其变迁轨迹分析创造更加广阔的拓展空间。研究价值:揭示了中国经济增长变迁的动因结构以及最新转换趋势,为旨在推动国民经济又快又好发展的政策设计提供了新的科学决策参考。
[Abstract]:Research objective: to explore the structure of economic growth drivers and the trend of transformation. Methods: based on the time series data of three industries in China from 1980 to 2014, the structural index production function was constructed and the empirical study was carried out by combining exponential analysis with logarithmic analysis. It is found that the reduction of total factor productivity contribution is the most important factor in the sharp deceleration of economic growth since 2008, and that the reduction of factor scale growth rate and the reduction of output elasticity lead to the decline of the contribution of capital and labor force. The double deceleration of the growth of capital and labor productivity is the leading factor that causes the sharp decline of the total factor productivity, and the motive force of the total factor productivity growth changes from the promotion of the industrial factor productivity to the optimization of the allocation structure of the factors among industries. Research and innovation: from the factor scale and efficiency of the three industries, the three levels are pushed forward layer by layer, to create a broader expansion space for the analysis of economic growth power and its vicissitude track. Research value: it reveals the driving force structure and the latest transformation trend of China's economic growth, and provides a new scientific decision-making reference for the policy design aimed at promoting the rapid and sound development of the national economy.
【作者单位】： 中国工商银行丽水分行;
【分类号】：F124;F224
[Abstract]:Research objective: to explore the structure of economic growth drivers and the trend of transformation. Methods: based on the time series data of three industries in China from 1980 to 2014, the structural index production function was constructed and the empirical study was carried out by combining exponential analysis with logarithmic analysis. It is found that the reduction of total factor productivity contribution is the most important factor in the sharp deceleration of economic growth since 2008, and that the reduction of factor scale growth rate and the reduction of output elasticity lead to the decline of the contribution of capital and labor force. The double deceleration of the growth of capital and labor productivity is the leading factor that causes the sharp decline of the total factor productivity, and the motive force of the total factor productivity growth changes from the promotion of the industrial factor productivity to the optimization of the allocation structure of the factors among industries. Research and innovation: from the factor scale and efficiency of the three industries, the three levels are pushed forward layer by layer, to create a broader expansion space for the analysis of economic growth power and its vicissitude track. Research value: it reveals the driving force structure and the latest transformation trend of China's economic growth, and provides a new scientific decision-making reference for the policy design aimed at promoting the rapid and sound development of the national economy.
【作者单位】： 中国工商银行丽水分行;
【分类号】：F124;F224
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