“双排车”禁行政策对乘用车运输的影响分析
发布时间：2018-08-09 19:42
【摘要】：为进一步治理车辆非法改装和超限超载现象,关于“全面禁止乘用车非法改装运输车辆'双排车'上路运行”的相关政策陆续出台并实施。政策实施保障了驾驶者生命和财产安全,公路、桥梁的寿命增加,减少了资源浪费等。但另一方面,更多的运力需求意味着运输成本的增加;运送次数的增加也会增加二氧化碳的排放,造成环境压力。由此来看,“双排车”禁行政策的实施会对乘用车运输系统的各方面产生不同影响。在政策实施后,乘用车运输各个方面的具体变化是本文要研究的主要问题。本文首先对“双排车”禁行政策的四个相关文件进行解读。随后,将乘用车运输系统分为代表乘用车运输企业利益的经济子系统、代表城市化进程和民众利益的社会子系统以及体现低碳发展的环境子系统,并详细分析了政策实施下乘用车运输各子系统内部因素变化的关系。在定性分析的基础上,运用系统动力学的方法构建乘用车运输系统仿真模型,用一种更加直观的定量方式来分析系统内部变量的关系和变化。然后以C物流公司为实例进行调研,根据收集的数据对乘用车运输系统进行政策模拟和系统仿真。通过仿真后各变量呈现的数据和变化趋势,具体分析政策的实施对运输车辆、系统中各方面成本、高速公路拥挤程度、道路维护情况以及碳排放等方面带来的具体影响。最后针对政策实施后产生不利影响的方面,提出合理的建议。本文主要结论如下:政策的实施,使乘用车运输的各方面成本有增加也有减少,但总成本的增加导致政策实施后期C公司利润的大幅下降;政策实施降低了事故的发生,并使基础设施维护成本降低,但一定程度上增加了高速公路的拥堵程度;政策的实施增加了碳排放。最后,针对政策实施产生的影响,分别从乘用车运输企业运输成本与价格、改善运输道路基础设施及道路拥堵情况、减少碳排放量等方面提出了相关建议,给乘用车运输企业提供系统优化的方向,也给社会以及后续政策的调整和指定提供参考。
[Abstract]:In order to further control the phenomenon of illegal refitting and overloading of vehicles, the related policies on "banning the illegal refitting of passenger cars and transporting vehicles on the road" have been issued and implemented one after another. The implementation of the policy ensures the safety of the driver's life and property, increases the life span of roads and bridges, and reduces the waste of resources. On the other hand, more demand for capacity means higher transport costs; an increase in the number of shipments will also increase carbon dioxide emissions, creating environmental pressures. Therefore, the implementation of the "double-row" ban policy will have a different impact on all aspects of passenger vehicle transportation system. After the implementation of the policy, the specific changes in various aspects of passenger transport are the main problems to be studied in this paper. This article first of all to "double row" ban policy four related documents to carry on the interpretation. Subsequently, the passenger transport system is divided into economic subsystem representing the interests of passenger transport enterprises, social subsystem representing the process of urbanization and the interests of the public, and environmental subsystem reflecting low-carbon development. The relationship between internal factors of passenger vehicle transportation subsystem is analyzed in detail. On the basis of qualitative analysis, the simulation model of passenger vehicle transportation system is constructed by using the method of system dynamics, and the relationship and variation of system internal variables are analyzed in a more intuitive and quantitative way. Then take C logistics company as an example to carry on the policy simulation and the system simulation to the passenger vehicle transportation system according to the collected data. Based on the data and trend of the variables after simulation, this paper analyzes the impact of the policy on transport vehicles, system costs, highway congestion, road maintenance and carbon emissions, and other aspects of the specific impact of the implementation of the policy on transport vehicles, system costs, highway congestion, road maintenance, and carbon emissions, and so on. Finally, some reasonable suggestions are put forward in view of the adverse effects after the implementation of the policy. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: the implementation of the policy increases and decreases the cost of passenger vehicle transportation, but the increase of total cost leads to the sharp decline of company C's profits in the later stage of policy implementation, and the implementation of policy reduces the occurrence of accidents. It also reduces the cost of infrastructure maintenance, but to some extent increases the congestion of the highway, and the implementation of the policy increases the carbon emissions. Finally, in view of the impact of the implementation of the policy, this paper puts forward some relevant suggestions from the aspects of transport costs and prices of passenger transport enterprises, improving transport road infrastructure and road congestion, reducing carbon emissions, and so on. It provides the direction of system optimization for passenger transport enterprises, and also provides reference for the adjustment and designation of social and subsequent policies.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F259.23
本文编号：2175115
[Abstract]:In order to further control the phenomenon of illegal refitting and overloading of vehicles, the related policies on "banning the illegal refitting of passenger cars and transporting vehicles on the road" have been issued and implemented one after another. The implementation of the policy ensures the safety of the driver's life and property, increases the life span of roads and bridges, and reduces the waste of resources. On the other hand, more demand for capacity means higher transport costs; an increase in the number of shipments will also increase carbon dioxide emissions, creating environmental pressures. Therefore, the implementation of the "double-row" ban policy will have a different impact on all aspects of passenger vehicle transportation system. After the implementation of the policy, the specific changes in various aspects of passenger transport are the main problems to be studied in this paper. This article first of all to "double row" ban policy four related documents to carry on the interpretation. Subsequently, the passenger transport system is divided into economic subsystem representing the interests of passenger transport enterprises, social subsystem representing the process of urbanization and the interests of the public, and environmental subsystem reflecting low-carbon development. The relationship between internal factors of passenger vehicle transportation subsystem is analyzed in detail. On the basis of qualitative analysis, the simulation model of passenger vehicle transportation system is constructed by using the method of system dynamics, and the relationship and variation of system internal variables are analyzed in a more intuitive and quantitative way. Then take C logistics company as an example to carry on the policy simulation and the system simulation to the passenger vehicle transportation system according to the collected data. Based on the data and trend of the variables after simulation, this paper analyzes the impact of the policy on transport vehicles, system costs, highway congestion, road maintenance and carbon emissions, and other aspects of the specific impact of the implementation of the policy on transport vehicles, system costs, highway congestion, road maintenance, and carbon emissions, and so on. Finally, some reasonable suggestions are put forward in view of the adverse effects after the implementation of the policy. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: the implementation of the policy increases and decreases the cost of passenger vehicle transportation, but the increase of total cost leads to the sharp decline of company C's profits in the later stage of policy implementation, and the implementation of policy reduces the occurrence of accidents. It also reduces the cost of infrastructure maintenance, but to some extent increases the congestion of the highway, and the implementation of the policy increases the carbon emissions. Finally, in view of the impact of the implementation of the policy, this paper puts forward some relevant suggestions from the aspects of transport costs and prices of passenger transport enterprises, improving transport road infrastructure and road congestion, reducing carbon emissions, and so on. It provides the direction of system optimization for passenger transport enterprises, and also provides reference for the adjustment and designation of social and subsequent policies.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F259.23
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