就业、城镇化、城乡收入差距与中国的人口增长
发布时间：2018-08-09 12:38
【摘要】：基于我国2000~2015年的省际面板数据,将31个省市按东、中、西三大区域划分,建立个体固定效应变系数模型分析了就业、城镇化、城乡收入差距等因素对我国人口增长的影响。结果表明:我国不同区域人口增长的影响因素存在较大差异,东部地区主要受城镇化、在岗职工工资的影响;中西部地区主要受就业、城镇化和在岗职工工资的影响;在总体上,就业和城镇化对人口增长起促进作用,而城乡收入差距对人口增长起阻碍作用,其影响程度依次递减。由于人口增长的影响因素存在地区差异,为了减缓目前我国人口增长缓慢,人口老龄化速度加快,劳动力日渐短缺的状况,国家和地方政府应该根据不同的区域特征制定不同的人口政策,促进人口增长,最大限度地减缓人口老龄化可能给我国的经济发展带来的负面影响。
[Abstract]:Based on the provincial panel data from 2000 to 2015 in China, 31 provinces and cities are divided into three regions: east, middle and west, and an individual fixed effect variable coefficient model is established to analyze the effects of employment, urbanization and income gap between urban and rural areas on the population growth in China. The results show that there are great differences in the influencing factors of population growth in different regions of China, the eastern region is mainly affected by urbanization and the wages of the employed workers, and the central and western regions are mainly affected by the employment, urbanization and the wages of the workers and staff on the job. On the whole, employment and urbanization promote population growth, while urban-rural income gap hinders population growth. Because there are regional differences in the influencing factors of population growth, in order to slow down the current population growth in China, the aging rate of the population is accelerating, and the labor force is becoming increasingly short. National and local governments should formulate different population policies according to different regional characteristics to promote population growth and to minimize the possible negative impact of population aging on China's economic development.
【作者单位】： 华侨大学经济与金融学院;湘潭大学数学与计算科学学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金面上项目“中国人口老龄化进程与劳动生产率:检验;预测与政策选择”(715703154) 华侨大学研究生科研创新能力培养计划项目“人口老龄化背景下养老产业的发展问题研究”
【分类号】：C924.2;F124.7;F249.2;F299.21
[Abstract]:Based on the provincial panel data from 2000 to 2015 in China, 31 provinces and cities are divided into three regions: east, middle and west, and an individual fixed effect variable coefficient model is established to analyze the effects of employment, urbanization and income gap between urban and rural areas on the population growth in China. The results show that there are great differences in the influencing factors of population growth in different regions of China, the eastern region is mainly affected by urbanization and the wages of the employed workers, and the central and western regions are mainly affected by the employment, urbanization and the wages of the workers and staff on the job. On the whole, employment and urbanization promote population growth, while urban-rural income gap hinders population growth. Because there are regional differences in the influencing factors of population growth, in order to slow down the current population growth in China, the aging rate of the population is accelerating, and the labor force is becoming increasingly short. National and local governments should formulate different population policies according to different regional characteristics to promote population growth and to minimize the possible negative impact of population aging on China's economic development.
【作者单位】： 华侨大学经济与金融学院;湘潭大学数学与计算科学学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金面上项目“中国人口老龄化进程与劳动生产率:检验;预测与政策选择”(715703154) 华侨大学研究生科研创新能力培养计划项目“人口老龄化背景下养老产业的发展问题研究”
【分类号】：C924.2;F124.7;F249.2;F299.21
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