政府投资工程项目风险评价研究

发布时间：2018-09-01 17:54

【摘要】：自改革开放以来,中国经济得到了长足的发展,每年以7%以上的增速发展了几十年,GDP总量已经跃居世界第二,仅次于美国,被誉为“中国速度”。政府投资工程项目作为拉动国内经济的“三驾马车”之一,在GDP的增长过程中扮演着重要的角色,并且随着中国城镇化进程的不断推进以及高铁等大型基建项目的不断建设,政府投资工程项目将在我国GDP增速的组成中发挥越来越重要的作用,并将成为稳定而持续的输出。与此同时,由于各方面的原因,政府投资工程项目在实施过程中存在着大量的风险,包括项目自身的风险和贪污腐败等人为风险,对国家和人民造成了重大的损失。因此,为了完善我国政府投资项目的风险管理体系,建立政府投资项目的评价指标体系是十分有必要的。本文首先对国内外关于政府投资工程项目方面的研究进行了综述。然后,本文根据文献,结合实际情况对政府投资工程项目的风险评价建立指标体系,指标体系包括决策风险、管理风险、政治政策风险、经济风险、自然环境风险和项目技术风险,采用AHP—TOPSIS法对工程项目的风险进行评价,并进行实例分析。最后对改善我国政府投资工程项目的风险管理体系提出相关建议并对未来的研究进行了展望。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has been greatly developed, with an annual growth rate of more than 7%, the GDP has leapt to the second place in the world, second only to the United States, known as "China's speed". As one of the "troika" to stimulate the domestic economy, government-invested engineering projects play an important role in the process of GDP growth, and with the continuous advancement of China's urbanization process and the continuous construction of large-scale infrastructure projects such as high-speed rail, Government investment projects will play a more and more important role in the composition of China's GDP growth rate and will become a stable and sustained output. At the same time, due to various reasons, there are a large number of risks in the process of implementation of government-invested engineering projects, including the risks of the project itself, corruption and other man-made risks, which have caused great losses to the country and the people. Therefore, in order to perfect the risk management system of government investment projects, it is necessary to establish the evaluation index system of government investment projects. Firstly, this paper summarizes the research on government investment projects at home and abroad. Then, according to the literature, combined with the actual situation, this paper establishes an index system for the risk evaluation of government investment projects. The index system includes decision-making risk, management risk, political policy risk, economic risk. Natural environment risk and project technical risk are evaluated by AHP-TOPSIS method, and an example is analyzed. Finally, some suggestions are put forward to improve the risk management system of government investment projects in China, and the future research is prospected.
【学位授予单位】：武汉纺织大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F283

【参考文献】