人民币汇率变动对我国就业的影响研究
发布时间：2018-09-05 10:17
【摘要】：汇率是国民经济中的重要金融政策工具,反映了一国货币相对于另一国货币的购买力,不仅是一国经济实力的反映,而且影响一国对外贸易甚至就业状况。自2005年7月21日起,我国开始实行以市场供求为基础、参考一篮子货币进行调节、有管理的浮动汇率制度,人民币汇率长期保持稳步升值。但2015年以来,金融市场出现了较大动荡,人民币对美元汇率大幅波动,呈现贬值趋势。2016年10月1日,人民币正式加入国际货币基金组织(SDR),这是推动人民币国际化取得的重大成就,表明人民币在国际金融市场上的地位上进一步上升。目前我国经济增长速度由原来的高速增长步入常态化发展阶段,经济下行压力较大。就业作为民生之本,关系着国家和社会的安定稳固,而我国新增就业人口逐年增加,在经济下行压力下,就业形势越发严峻。因此在新经济形势下,研究人民币汇率对我国就业的影响,化解当前就业形势严峻的难题,具有重要现实意义。本文研究人民币汇率变动对我国就业的影响,从理论和实证两方面深入分析。理论方面,首先梳理了关于汇率和就业的相关理论基础,并对我国汇率和就业的现状进行了简介,其次分析了我国汇率影响就业的传导路径,即人民币汇率会通过出口贸易传导路径、外商直接投资传导路径和资源配置传导路径对就业产生影响。实证分析方面,以2001-2015年我国31个省份(市、区)的相关数据作为研究对象,建立面板模型,首先从全国整体层面实证分析了人民币汇率变动对我国就业的影响,研究发现人民币汇率变动会引致就业量反向变动;其次通过地区层面探究人民币实际汇率变动对东中西部地区就业的影响及其差异;最后从行业层面探究该影响及在不同行业间的差异。研究结果表明,人民币实际有效汇率变动对我国东、中、西部地区就业影响存在较大差异:人民币汇率变动对东部和中部地区就业会呈现较明显的负向冲击效应,但对西部地区就业影响不显著。从行业层面来看,人民币实际汇率变动对交通运输业以及住宿和餐饮业就业影响不显著,但对其他几个行业就业影响都是显著的,汇率升值会拉动金融行业就业增长,抑制农林牧渔业、制造业、建筑业、批发零售业的就业增长。
[Abstract]:Exchange rate is an important financial policy tool in the national economy, which reflects the purchasing power of one country's currency relative to another country's currency. It is not only a reflection of a country's economic strength, but also affects a country's foreign trade and even employment situation. Since July 21, 2005, China began to implement a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand, with reference to a basket of currencies. The RMB exchange rate has been steadily appreciated for a long time. However, since 2015, the financial markets have experienced considerable turbulence. The RMB has fluctuated sharply against the US dollar, showing a trend of depreciation. On October 1, 2016, The formal entry of the renminbi into the (SDR), is a major achievement in promoting the internationalization of the renminbi, indicating that the yuan's position in international financial markets has risen further. At present, China's economic growth rate from the original high-speed growth into a normal stage of development, economic downward pressure is greater. Employment, as the foundation of people's livelihood, relates to the stability and stability of the country and the society. However, the new employment population in China is increasing year by year. Under the downward pressure of the economy, the employment situation is becoming more and more severe. Therefore, under the new economic situation, it is of great practical significance to study the impact of RMB exchange rate on employment in our country and to resolve the serious problem of current employment situation. This paper studies the impact of RMB exchange rate change on employment in China, and analyzes it theoretically and empirically. In theory, it firstly combs the relevant theoretical basis of exchange rate and employment, introduces the current situation of exchange rate and employment in China, and then analyzes the transmission path of exchange rate affecting employment in China. That is, RMB exchange rate will influence employment through export trade transmission path, foreign direct investment transmission path and resource allocation transmission path. In the empirical analysis, taking the data of 31 provinces (cities and districts) from 2001 to 2015 as the research object, the panel model is established. Firstly, the paper empirically analyzes the impact of RMB exchange rate change on employment in China from the overall level of the whole country. It is found that the change of RMB exchange rate will lead to the reverse change of employment volume. Secondly, the influence of the real exchange rate of RMB on employment in the eastern, western and western regions and its differences are explored at the regional level. Finally, from the industry level to explore the impact and the differences between different industries. The results show that the real effective exchange rate of RMB has great difference on employment in the east, middle and west of China: the change of RMB exchange rate will have a negative impact on employment in the eastern and central regions, and the change of RMB exchange rate will have a negative impact on employment in the eastern and central regions of China. However, the impact on employment in the western region is not significant. At the industry level, the change in the real exchange rate of the RMB has no significant impact on the employment of transportation, accommodation and catering industries, but it has a significant impact on employment in several other industries. The appreciation of the exchange rate will stimulate the growth of employment in the financial sector. Agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, manufacturing, construction, wholesale and retail employment growth.
【学位授予单位】：南昌大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.6;F249.2
本文编号：2223976
[Abstract]:Exchange rate is an important financial policy tool in the national economy, which reflects the purchasing power of one country's currency relative to another country's currency. It is not only a reflection of a country's economic strength, but also affects a country's foreign trade and even employment situation. Since July 21, 2005, China began to implement a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand, with reference to a basket of currencies. The RMB exchange rate has been steadily appreciated for a long time. However, since 2015, the financial markets have experienced considerable turbulence. The RMB has fluctuated sharply against the US dollar, showing a trend of depreciation. On October 1, 2016, The formal entry of the renminbi into the (SDR), is a major achievement in promoting the internationalization of the renminbi, indicating that the yuan's position in international financial markets has risen further. At present, China's economic growth rate from the original high-speed growth into a normal stage of development, economic downward pressure is greater. Employment, as the foundation of people's livelihood, relates to the stability and stability of the country and the society. However, the new employment population in China is increasing year by year. Under the downward pressure of the economy, the employment situation is becoming more and more severe. Therefore, under the new economic situation, it is of great practical significance to study the impact of RMB exchange rate on employment in our country and to resolve the serious problem of current employment situation. This paper studies the impact of RMB exchange rate change on employment in China, and analyzes it theoretically and empirically. In theory, it firstly combs the relevant theoretical basis of exchange rate and employment, introduces the current situation of exchange rate and employment in China, and then analyzes the transmission path of exchange rate affecting employment in China. That is, RMB exchange rate will influence employment through export trade transmission path, foreign direct investment transmission path and resource allocation transmission path. In the empirical analysis, taking the data of 31 provinces (cities and districts) from 2001 to 2015 as the research object, the panel model is established. Firstly, the paper empirically analyzes the impact of RMB exchange rate change on employment in China from the overall level of the whole country. It is found that the change of RMB exchange rate will lead to the reverse change of employment volume. Secondly, the influence of the real exchange rate of RMB on employment in the eastern, western and western regions and its differences are explored at the regional level. Finally, from the industry level to explore the impact and the differences between different industries. The results show that the real effective exchange rate of RMB has great difference on employment in the east, middle and west of China: the change of RMB exchange rate will have a negative impact on employment in the eastern and central regions, and the change of RMB exchange rate will have a negative impact on employment in the eastern and central regions of China. However, the impact on employment in the western region is not significant. At the industry level, the change in the real exchange rate of the RMB has no significant impact on the employment of transportation, accommodation and catering industries, but it has a significant impact on employment in several other industries. The appreciation of the exchange rate will stimulate the growth of employment in the financial sector. Agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, manufacturing, construction, wholesale and retail employment growth.
【学位授予单位】：南昌大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.6;F249.2
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