余命延长条件下养老保险制度选择的劳动力供给质量效用分析

发布时间：2018-10-04 22:55

【摘要】：由现收现付制向基金积累制转变的改革潮流是缓解人口老龄化对已有养老保险制度冲击的意愿体现。基金积累制的精算平衡解决了养老保险制度收不抵支的问题,却未能缓解宏观层面的长寿风险和微观层面的制度替代率下降,若考虑养老保险制度对劳动力供给质量的影响,这一变革潮流的合理性就更需斟酌了。本文选用包含人力资本投资决策的世代交替模型和内生经济增长模型,在余命延长条件下分析基金积累制、名义账户制、现收现付制等养老保险制度类型对理性个体人力资本投资决策的影响,进而分析其对单个劳动力素质和整体劳动力供给质量结构的作用。研究结果显示,在人口老龄化背景下,基金积累制和名义账户制可提高技术工人占比,优化劳动力供给质量结构;收入关联的现收现付制不仅有助于提高技术工人占比,还可以进一步提高技术工人的人力资本存量,也就是单个劳动力素质和整体劳动力供给质量结构均得到提高;与此同时,稳态经济增速取决于技术工人占比及其人力资本存量,这显示人口老龄化对经济增长有积极作用,收入关联的现收现付制优于其他养老保险制度,但由于非技术工人的单位养老金缴费更多,它不是精算公平的。研究结论从劳动力供给质量提升、经济增长的视角为养老保险制度结构调整提供新的依据。
[Abstract]:The reform trend from pay-as-you-go system to fund accumulation system is the willingness to alleviate the impact of aging population on the existing pension insurance system. The actuarial balance of the fund accumulation system solves the problem that the pension insurance system receives no excess, but fails to alleviate the macroscopical risk of longevity and the decline of the microcosmic system substitution rate. If the impact of the pension insurance system on the quality of labor supply is considered, The reasonableness of this trend of change is even more to be considered. This paper selects the intergenerational alternative model and the endogenous economic growth model including the investment decision of human capital to analyze the fund accumulation system and the nominal account system under the condition of remaining life extension. The influence of old-age insurance system, such as pay-as-you-go system, on rational individual human capital investment decision, and its effect on the quality of individual labor force and the structure of supply quality of labor force as a whole are analyzed. The results show that in the context of aging population, the accumulation of funds and nominal accounts can improve the proportion of skilled workers, optimize the quality structure of labor supply, and the pay-as-you-go system can not only help to increase the proportion of skilled workers. The stock of human capital of skilled workers, that is, the quality of individual workers and the overall quality structure of labor supply, can be further improved. At the same time, the steady economic growth rate depends on the proportion of skilled workers and their stock of human capital. This shows that the aging of the population has a positive effect on economic growth and that the pay-as-you-go system is better than other pension insurance systems, but it is not actuarial fair because unskilled workers pay more per unit pension. The conclusion provides a new basis for the adjustment of pension system structure from the perspective of improving the quality of labor supply and economic growth.
【作者单位】：上海工程技术大学管理学院;上海工程技术大学数理统计学院;
【基金】：国家哲学与社会科学重点项目:渐进式延迟退休年龄政策研究(16ASH013)
【分类号】：F249.2;F842.67

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