基于PVAR模型的长江中游城市群新型城镇化与科技创新关联性分析

发布时间：2018-11-04 21:04

【摘要】：基于2005—2014年长江中游城市群28个城市的面板数据,运用PVAR模型对新型城镇化与科技创新间的关联性进行估计,结果显示:科技创新有助于新型城镇化的发展,且近期的科技创新对新型城镇化的影响程度为正,较远期的科技创新会对新型城镇化的发展产生反向效果;新型城镇化的发展有利于科技创新,远期影响为正,中期影响效应变为负,近期又会由负转正。即科技创新与新型城镇化之间的动态关联关系具有时滞性,前期两者之间的互动效应为负,随时间的推移两者之间的影响由负转正;且新型城镇化对科技创新的影响效应强于科技创新对新型城镇化的影响效应,两者的互动关系存在较强的区域差异性。
[Abstract]:Based on the panel data of 28 cities in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River from 2005 to 2014, PVAR model is used to estimate the correlation between new urbanization and scientific and technological innovation. The results show that scientific and technological innovation contributes to the development of new urbanization. And the recent scientific and technological innovation has a positive impact on the new urbanization, and the long-term scientific and technological innovation will have a reverse effect on the development of the new urbanization. The development of new urbanization is beneficial to scientific and technological innovation. The long term effect is positive, the medium term effect becomes negative, and in the near future it will change from negative to positive. That is, the dynamic correlation between science and technology innovation and new urbanization has a time-delay, the interaction effect between the two is negative, and the influence between the two changes from negative to positive with the passage of time. The impact of new urbanization on scientific and technological innovation is stronger than that on new urbanization, and there are strong regional differences in the interaction between the two.
【作者单位】：武汉大学中国中部发展研究院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金青年基金项目“中国地级以上城市科技资源配置效率的时空演化机理与空间效应研究”(41501141) 中国博士后科学基金特别资助项目“区域绿色科技资源配置效率的收敛机制与空间溢出效应”(2016T90710) 湖北省软科学面上项目“长江中游城市群创新供需系统的时空协同演化及政策模拟”(2016ADC068) 武汉市软科学重点研究项目“武汉建设具有全球影响力的科技创新中心改革发展路径研究”(2016040306010200)
【分类号】：F124.3;F299.27

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