新疆城市综合承载力研究

发布时间：2018-11-05 11:35

【摘要】：我国城市正处在快速发展的过程中,随着城市化水平的不断提高,城市人口增长过快,城市规模不断扩大,城市资源告急,城市环境质量下降等一系列问题也随之产生。这些城市问题已经影响到城市的可持续发展,城市综合承载力是衡量城市可持续发展的标准,因此城市综合承载力引起了人们的高度关注。本文以新疆14个地州市的中心城市为研究靶区,将研究区分为北疆、南疆、东疆三大区,北疆代表城市:乌鲁木齐市、克拉玛依市、昌吉市、博乐市、塔城市、伊宁市和阿勒泰市7个城市,南疆代表城市库尔勒市、阿克苏市、和田市、阿图什市和喀什市5个城市,东疆代表城市吐鲁番市和哈密市2个城市。基于2006-2015年10年间的数据,选取资源、生态环境和社会经济三个一级指标,水资源、土地资源、生态、资源、社会和经济6个二级指标,25个具体指标构建城市综合承载力的评价指标体系。首先通过变异系数法和熵权法的综合赋权法计算出各指标层的权重。其次运用非线性加权综合评价法和TOPSISI模型分别测度新疆14个地州市中心城市的综合承载力水平和承载质量,分析城市综合承载力水平是否与承载力质量一致。然后运用协调度对城市综合承载力系统的内部结构进行分析。分别评价北疆、南疆和东疆三个研究区的城市综合承载力,主要研究成果包括以下几个方面:(1)通过综合指数法构建新疆14个地州市中心城市的综合承载力指数模型,分析2006-2015年间城市综合承载力的变化趋势。结果表明:无论是北疆城市、南疆城市还是东疆城市的综合承载力水平都普遍存在波动上升的趋势,但是整体承载水平不是很高,其中北疆城市、南疆城市和东疆城市综合承载力水平提高的平均波动值分别是0.31,0.32,0.28。(2)运用TOPSISI模型分析新疆城市综合承载力的质量,研究结果表明:整体上新疆城市承载力质量的变化趋势与承载力水平基本保持一致,都呈现出波动上升的趋势。其中北疆城市、南疆城市、东疆城市的城市综合承载力的贴近度都更加偏离负理想解,逐渐靠近正理想解,表明随着时间的变化城市综合承载力的质量都在不断地变好。(3)在时间序列上14个地州市的中心城市之间的综合承载力的差异在波动中先扩大后减小,在空间分布上,呈现出东疆城市优于北疆城市,北疆城市优于南疆城市的布局。在北疆城市中克拉玛依市的各项承载力都比较高,南疆则是库尔勒市的承载力较高,东疆城市中吐鲁番市与哈密市的承载力不相上下,吐鲁番市的综合承载能力略优于哈密市。(4)根据评价指标体系的科学性、完整性、可操作性等原则,构建新疆城市综合承载力评价指标体系。城市综合承载力内部以资源承载力、生态环境承载力、社会经济承载力三大系统进行解构,研究结果表明:制约新疆14个地州市中心城市承载力的主要因素是不尽相同的,且各个城市综合承载力的优势承载因素也不同。(5)运用协调度分析城市综合承载力的内部协调程度,结果表明:新疆14个地州市的中心城市综合承载力各系统层指标的协调度均达到良好协调,其中库尔勒市属于优质协调,其它城市均属于良好协调。说明新疆各城市内部均能达到良好协调,系统内部协调性好。城市综合承载力三个子系统,生态环境承载力和社会经济承载力子系统属于良好协调,最差的是资源承载力属于一般协调。说明新疆14个城市间的综合承载力系统的协调发展建设程度较低,城市综合承载力各系统均需要进一步加强它的协调建设,尤其要重视资源承载力子系统的协调建设。
[Abstract]:China's cities are in the process of rapid development, along with the increasing urbanization level, the urban population has been growing rapidly, the city scale is expanding, the city resources are urgent, the urban environmental quality decline and so on a series of problems. These urban problems have affected the sustainable development of the city, the comprehensive bearing capacity of the city is the standard to measure the sustainable development of the city, so the comprehensive carrying capacity of the city has caused the people's high concern. Based on the central city of 14 cities in Xinjiang, this paper divides the study into three regions of North Xinjiang, South Xinjiang, East Xinjiang, and the representative cities of North Xinjiang: Urumqi, Karamay City, Changji City, Bolle City, Tcity, Yining City and Aletai City 7 cities. South Xinjiang represents the city of Korla city, Aksu city, Hetian city, Atush city and Kashgar city in 5 cities, east Xinjiang represents city of Turpan city and cantoncity 2 cities. Based on the data from 2006 to 2015, resources, ecological environment and socio-economic indicators, water resources, land resources, ecology, resources, social and economic indicators, and 25 concrete indicators were selected to construct the evaluation index system of urban comprehensive bearing capacity. Firstly, the weights of each index layer are calculated by the method of coefficient of variation and the comprehensive weighting method of entropy weight method. Secondly, using the nonlinear weighted comprehensive evaluation method and TOPSIS model to measure the comprehensive bearing capacity and bearing quality of the cities in 14 prefectures and cities in Xinjiang, and analyze whether the comprehensive bearing capacity of cities is consistent with the quality of bearing capacity. Then the internal structure of the urban comprehensive bearing capacity system is analyzed with the coordination degree. The comprehensive bearing capacity of the cities in the three research areas of North Xinjiang, South Xinjiang and East Xinjiang is evaluated. The main research results include the following aspects: (1) constructing the comprehensive bearing capacity index model of the urban center cities in 14 prefectures in Xinjiang through the comprehensive index method; The trend of urban comprehensive bearing capacity during 2006-2015 was analyzed. The results show that the overall bearing capacity is not very high, but the whole bearing level is not very high, in the north Xinjiang city, the south Xinjiang city or the east Xinjiang city, but the whole bearing level is not very high, among which the Beijiang city, The average fluctuation values of comprehensive bearing capacity of urban and eastern Xinjiang were 0. 31, 0. 32, 0. 28, respectively. (2) Using TOPISI model to analyze the quality of the comprehensive bearing capacity of Xinjiang city, the research results show that the change trend of the quality of the urban bearing capacity in Xinjiang is basically consistent with the bearing capacity level, and the trend of fluctuation rise is presented. Among them, the close degree of urban comprehensive bearing capacity of Beijiang city, Nanjiang city and east Xinjiang is more deviated from the negative ideal solution, gradually close to the positive ideal solution, indicating that the quality of the comprehensive bearing capacity of the city is changing continuously over time. (3) The difference of the comprehensive bearing capacity between the central cities of the 14 cities in the time series is reduced in the fluctuation, and in the spatial distribution, it shows that the east Xinjiang city is better than the Beijiang city, and the north Xinjiang city is superior to the layout of the south Xinjiang city. In the northern Xinjiang city, the bearing capacity of Karamay City is relatively high, and south Xinjiang is the capacity of Kuerle City. The capacity of Turpan City in East Xinjiang is equal to that of hami city, and the comprehensive bearing capacity of Turpan City is slightly better than that of hami city. (4) To construct comprehensive evaluation index system of urban comprehensive bearing capacity in Xinjiang according to the principles of scientific, completeness and operability of evaluation index system. The results show that the main factors which restrict the urban carrying capacity of 14 prefectures and cities in Xinjiang are different. and the advantages of the comprehensive bearing capacity of each city are different. (5) Using the coordination degree to analyze the internal coordination degree of the urban comprehensive bearing capacity, the results show that the coordination degree of each system level indicator of the central city comprehensive bearing capacity of 14 cities in Xinjiang is well coordinated, among which Korla City belongs to high-quality coordination, and other cities belong to good coordination. It is pointed out that the interior of all cities in Xinjiang can achieve good coordination, and the internal coordination of the system is good. The three subsystems of urban comprehensive bearing capacity, the ecological environment carrying capacity and the social economic bearing capacity subsystem belong to good coordination, and the worst is that the resource carrying capacity belongs to general coordination. It is pointed out that the coordinated development degree of the comprehensive bearing capacity system between 14 cities in Xinjiang is low, and each system of the comprehensive bearing capacity of the city needs to further strengthen its coordination construction, especially the coordination and construction of the resource carrying capacity subsystem.
【学位授予单位】：新疆大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F299.27

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