棚户区改造项目融资风险评价研究

发布时间：2018-11-08 17:41

【摘要】：随着城市化进程的快速发展,城市内部老城区的发展步伐落后于城市新区的发展速度,老城区的很多房屋由于年久失修,配套基础设施不齐全等问题而亟待改造,这些危房旧房组成了大面积的棚户区,对棚户区的改造是一项比较复杂的系统工程,其面临拆迁困难,安置补偿成本大,对资金需求规模较大,融资风险问题成为整个项目改造的关键问题。使用科学的方法对融资风险进行识别评价,不仅能对项目融资整体风险水平有更清楚的认识,而且能对风险的控制具有指导性意义。本论文在国内外研究成果和实地调研的基础上,以棚户区改造项目融资问题为研究对象,首先在公共物品理论和项目融资理论基础上对项目融资运作流程进行分析,界定了棚户区的含义,确定了项目融资的主要参与者,创新了棚户区改造项目融资模式;结合风险评价理论和风险识别理论,以融资风险评价流程为线索,运用了定性研究与定量分析相结合方法,识别了对项目融资有影响的风险因素,并对这些风险因素进行研究分析。本论文在分析棚户区改造项目融资过程中存在的主要影响因素的基础上,着重研究每个影响因素的影响机理,建立了适用于棚户区改造项目融资风险评价的指标体系。运用了风险价值模型(VaR)对融资风险进行评估,模拟分析了财务风险和市场风险的变化时对项目融资的影响。结合层次分析法(AHP)构建了基于灰色系统理论和模糊数学理论的灰类模糊理论评价方法,设计调查问卷获得指标数据。最后以哈尔滨市DW棚户区改造项目为例,针对主要风险因素对项目融资的影响程度进行研究,得出了项目融资的整体风险水平情况。针对棚户区改造项目融资风险问题,从项目公司角度和政府相关部门角度提出风险应对策略。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of the urbanization process, the pace of the development of the old urban area lags behind that of the new urban district. Many houses in the old urban area are in urgent need of transformation because of the problems of old disrepair, incomplete supporting infrastructure, and so on. These dilapidated old houses form a large area of shantytowns. The transformation of shantytowns is a more complex systematic project. It faces difficulties in demolition and relocation, has a large cost of resettlement and compensation, and requires a large scale of funds. The financing risk problem becomes the key problem of the whole project transformation. The use of scientific methods to identify and evaluate the financing risks can not only have a clearer understanding of the overall risk level of project financing, but also have a guiding significance for risk control. Based on the domestic and foreign research results and field research, this paper takes the shantytown reconstruction project financing as the research object. Firstly, on the basis of public goods theory and project financing theory, this paper analyzes the project financing operation process. It defines the meaning of shantytown, determines the main participants of project financing, and innovates the financing mode of shantytown reconstruction project. Combined with risk evaluation theory and risk identification theory, the paper uses qualitative research and quantitative analysis to identify the risk factors that have an impact on project financing, taking the financing risk evaluation process as a clue and combining qualitative research with quantitative analysis. And these risk factors are studied and analyzed. Based on the analysis of the main influencing factors in the process of shantytown reconstruction project financing, this paper focuses on the influence mechanism of each factor, and establishes an index system suitable for evaluating the financing risk of shantytown reconstruction project. The risk value model (VaR) is used to evaluate the financing risk, and the influence of the change of financial risk and market risk on project financing is simulated and analyzed. The evaluation method of grey fuzzy theory based on grey system theory and fuzzy mathematics theory is constructed based on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The questionnaire is designed to obtain the index data. Finally, taking the DW shantytown reconstruction project in Harbin as an example, this paper studies the influence of main risk factors on project financing, and obtains the overall risk level of project financing. Aiming at the problem of financing risk of shantytown reconstruction project, this paper puts forward the risk countermeasures from the angle of project company and relevant government departments.
【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F299.27

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