大型PPP项目平稳演化风险非线性回归测度模型及实证分析

发布时间：2018-12-14 16:48

【摘要】：运用非线性回归计量方法研究大型PPP项目风险受宏观环境、微观环境、主体能力及合作关系等多种因素影响而平稳演化的规律。首先,通过案例分析找出大型PPP项目风险演化的主要驱动变量;其次,构建风险非线性回归计量模型并将其变形、简化为线性回归模型;最后,结合实例对模型参数进行估计和检验。通过研究发现,无突变因素情况下,项目风险与影响变量之间存在稳定均衡的非线性关系,宏观环境对风险变化的影响最为显著。
[Abstract]:The nonlinear regression method is used to study the rule that the risk of large PPP project evolves smoothly under the influence of many factors such as macro environment, micro environment, principal ability and cooperative relationship, etc. Firstly, the main driving variables of risk evolution of large PPP project are found out by case analysis; secondly, the risk nonlinear regression model is constructed and transformed into a linear regression model. Finally, the model parameters are estimated and tested with an example. It is found that there is a stable equilibrium nonlinear relationship between the project risk and the influence variables without catastrophe factors, and the influence of macro environment on the risk change is the most significant.
【作者单位】：中南大学商学院;湖南城市学院城市管理学院;温州大学商学院;
【基金】：国家社会基金项目“我国海外重大基础设施投资项目风险防控机制与应对策略研究”(14AZD127) 国家自然科学基金项目“房地产征用补偿极端争议的组合性均衡评价及其实验研究”(G0106) 湖南省自然科学基金项目“重大基础设施项目复杂风险演化机理与组合性均衡评价研究”(2015JJ2025)
【分类号】：F224;F283

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