基于城市空间增长模拟的城镇规模体系预测——以常州市为例

发布时间：2019-01-05 19:34

【摘要】：应用地理空间模型定量推演城市空间增长,进一步探索市域城镇等级体系结构和空间功能分区,提高建设用地演化模拟的应用导向性,是当前城市模拟研究的重点和难点。以常州市为对象,以约束性元胞自动机模型为基础,集成邻域思想、约束条件、空间聚类、Logistic回归、演化迭代等要点,构建城镇建设用地空间扩展的模拟预测模型和计算实验系统,探索基于城镇建设用地模拟的城镇规模体系情景分析方法。利用五期遥感影像解译数据为信息源,运用GIS空间分析方法进行建设用地适宜性评价;剖析城镇建设用地拓展的微观机制和地域演变模式,并通过引入城市规划和土地利用规划等规划因子,采用用地转换规则差异代替驱动因子差异来优化空间聚类算法,模拟和预测城镇建设用地总量和空间布局;在此基础上论证城乡建设用地增减挂钩政策的适用性,并基于人地挂钩机制预测各级城镇人口规模,为常州市相关空间规划和政策制定提供依据。
[Abstract]:It is the key and difficult point of the urban simulation research at present to quantitatively deduce the urban spatial growth by using the geo-spatial model, to further explore the hierarchy structure and spatial functional zoning of urban cities and towns, and to improve the application orientation of the evolution simulation of the construction land. Based on the constrained cellular automata model of Changzhou city, this paper integrates the idea of neighborhood, constraint conditions, spatial clustering, Logistic regression, evolution iteration, etc. A simulation and prediction model and a computational experimental system for the spatial expansion of urban construction land are constructed to explore the scenario analysis method of urban scale system based on the simulation of urban construction land. The GIS spatial analysis method is used to evaluate the suitability of construction land using the five periods of remote sensing image interpretation data as the information source. This paper analyzes the micro mechanism and regional evolution model of urban construction land development, and optimizes spatial clustering algorithm by introducing planning factors such as urban planning and land use planning, and using the difference of land conversion rules instead of driving factor difference. To simulate and predict the total amount and spatial distribution of urban construction land; On this basis, the applicability of urban and rural construction land linking policy is demonstrated, and the population size of cities and towns at all levels is predicted based on the human-land linkage mechanism, which provides the basis for the relevant spatial planning and policy formulation in Changzhou City.
【作者单位】：中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室;中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所;中国科学院大学;北京大学城市与环境学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(41690145)
【分类号】：F299.27

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