基于聚类方法的我国重点发展城市类型的选择研究

发布时间：2019-01-06 09:15

【摘要】：近年来,我国城市化率不断提高、中小城市在不断向大城市发展的同时有学者认为我国中小城市的数量规模不断减少是一种不稳定的状态,因为小城市数量的减少并没有从小城镇的发展得到数量上的补充,所以认为我国目前发展的目标应该是如何将小城镇发展为城市或重点发展中等城市,而不是继续重点发展大城市。同时由于"大城市病"的存在,反城市化现象也日益普遍,在美国已经成为人民选择定居的重要考虑因素,大有与城市化势均力敌的趋势,使得有学者认为大城市的发展应该得到一定的限制。将逐步对500万人口以上城市减少建设用地、划定永久基本农田的做法某种程度上与此观点具有一致性。对此,本文认为小城市的发展受到多项因素的制约,盲目地发展只会出现更多的问题,只有大城市的不断发展,才能逐步减少本地条件的制约,充分进行资源的整合,从而以一种更稳固、健康的方式发展。.为了研究影响不同类型城市综合水平的制约因素,选择更适合重点发展的城市类型,本文将我国地级以上城市按照综合指标用聚类分析方法分为四类,用因子分析方法得出各城市的综合因子得分,并以此为被解释变量对各类型城市作面板回归讨论影响因素在各个阶段对城市的作用,即从综合水平表现特征与影响因素两个方面进行对比。最终发现,城市综合发展水平越高,会在更少的方面受到制约,被制约的程度也逐步减小。同时还发现城市的发展过程中符合边际报酬先递增后递减的规律,边际报酬会在综合发展水平较高的城市类型达到最大,应该得到重点发展。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the urbanization rate of our country has been increasing, while the small and medium-sized cities are developing to the big cities, some scholars think that the decreasing of the number and scale of the small and medium-sized cities in our country is an unstable state. Because the reduction in the number of small cities has not been supplemented by the number of small towns, it is believed that the goal of our country's current development should be how to develop small towns into cities or focus on developing medium-sized cities. Instead of continuing to focus on developing big cities. At the same time, because of the existence of "the disease of big cities", the phenomenon of anti-urbanization is becoming more and more common. In the United States, it has become an important factor for people to choose to settle down, and there is a tendency to match the trend of urbanization. Some scholars believe that the development of large cities should be limited. The practice of gradually reducing construction land for cities with a population of more than 5 million and delineating permanent basic farmland is somewhat consistent with this view. In view of this, this paper holds that the development of small cities is restricted by many factors, blind development will only lead to more problems, only the continuous development of large cities can gradually reduce the constraints of local conditions and fully integrate resources. To develop in a more stable, healthy way. In order to study the restrictive factors affecting the comprehensive level of different types of cities and select the more suitable urban types for the key development, this paper classifies the cities above the prefectural level into four categories by cluster analysis according to the comprehensive index. By using factor analysis method, the comprehensive factor scores of each city are obtained, which is used as the panel regression of the explained variables to discuss the effect of the influencing factors on the city in each stage. Namely from the comprehensive level performance characteristic and the influence factor two aspects carries on the contrast. Finally, it is found that the higher the level of urban comprehensive development, will be restricted in less aspects, and the extent of constraints is gradually reduced. At the same time, it is found that in the process of urban development, the marginal returns increase first and then decrease, and the marginal returns reach the maximum in the urban types with higher comprehensive development level, which should be developed with emphasis.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F299.2

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