陕西省城乡经济社会一体化动力机制研究

发布时间：2019-01-30 10:52

【摘要】：进入21世纪的第二个十年以来,陕西省的经济发展迎来全面转型期,增速放缓,改革走到了攻坚克难的十字路口,需全面深化,在新常态景下要实现经济社会快速发展的目标,有赖于释放广大农村的经济增长潜力、产业后发优势等,而要释放这些潜力,必须加速推进城乡经济社会一体化发展。推进其发展,需要战略的整体谋划、路径的深入探寻,而这一切的首要前提是对其动力机制进行准确把握,才能据此制定有针对性的对策。本文运用系统动力学方法构建陕西省城乡经济社会一体化动力机制模型并进行仿真分析,具体研究内容和主要结论如下:(1)从经济一体化、社会一体化两个角度剖析陕西省城乡经济社会一体化的发展现状,在此基础上分析其存在的问题并找出导致该问题出现的原因。结果表明:陕西省经济社会的快速发展为城乡统筹奠定了夯实的物质基础,但依然存在城乡居民收入差距有待缩小、城乡产业结构有待优化、城乡教育的公平性有待提升、城乡医疗资源配置有待均衡、城乡生活方式的二元格局有待改变等问题;出现上述问题的原因在于城镇辐射能力有限、工业反哺力度不足、农业生产效益较低、信息化带动作用不强。(2)在对四化协同推进陕西省城乡经济社会一体化的作用机理进行解析的基础上,运用格兰杰因果检验客观判断动力机制内部变量间的因果关系,据此绘制因果关系图将动力机制的概念模型表现出来。结果表明:动力机制中的“源”(四化变量)与“汇”(城乡经济社会一体化变量)正方向变动;四化主要通过影响农民收入水平、农村非农产业发展水平、农民文化水平、农村基础设施水平进而对城乡经济社会一体化产生推动作用。(3)通过绘制系统流图、估计变量式组构建仿真模型,在此基础上进行预测和政策模拟,结果表明:在无调控状态下,陕西省的城乡收入差距、城乡文化差距、城乡基础设施差距在未来一段时期均呈缓慢下降态势,城乡产业融合水平、城乡经济社会一体化水平呈缓慢上升趋势;在有调控状态下,陕西省城乡经济社会一体化水平的增长速度有所加快,且发现农业产业化、农业科技化、城乡人口迁移、工业科技、城乡产业转移、信息技术、工业发展、信息资源、信息产业发展对其推动效应依次递减。
[Abstract]:Since entering the second decade of the 21st century, the economic development of Shaanxi Province has ushered in a comprehensive transformation period, the growth rate has slowed down, the reform has reached the crossroads where it is difficult to tackle difficult problems, it needs to be comprehensively deepened, and the goal of rapid economic and social development is to be realized under the new normal situation. It depends on releasing the economic growth potential of the vast rural areas and the advantages of industrial latecomer, but in order to release these potentials, it is necessary to accelerate the development of economic and social integration between urban and rural areas. In order to advance its development, it is necessary to plan the whole strategy and explore the path deeply, and the first premise of all this is to grasp its motive mechanism accurately, so as to formulate corresponding countermeasures accordingly. In this paper, the dynamic mechanism model of urban and rural economic and social integration in Shaanxi Province is constructed with the method of system dynamics. The specific research contents and main conclusions are as follows: (1) from the perspective of economic integration, On the basis of analyzing the present situation of the economic and social integration of urban and rural areas in Shaanxi Province from two angles of social integration, this paper analyzes the existing problems and finds out the causes of the problems. The results show that the rapid development of economy and society in Shaanxi Province has laid a solid material foundation for the overall planning of urban and rural areas, but there still exists the income gap between urban and rural residents to be narrowed, the industrial structure of urban and rural areas to be optimized, and the equity of urban and rural education to be improved. The allocation of medical resources in urban and rural areas needs to be balanced, and the dual pattern of urban and rural lifestyle needs to be changed. The reasons for the above problems lie in the limited radiation capacity of cities and towns, the insufficiency of industrial feedback, and the low efficiency of agricultural production. (2) on the basis of analyzing the mechanism of promoting the integration of urban and rural economy and society in Shaanxi Province, Granger causality test is used to objectively judge the causality between the internal variables of the dynamic mechanism. The conceptual model of dynamic mechanism is represented by drawing causality diagram. The results show that the "source" and "sink" in the dynamic mechanism are changing in a positive direction. The four modernizations mainly affect the income level of farmers, the development level of non-agricultural industries in rural areas, the level of farmers' culture, the level of rural infrastructure, and then promote the integration of urban and rural economy and society. (3) by drawing the system flow map, The simulation model of estimating variable group is constructed, and the prediction and policy simulation are carried out on this basis. The results show that under the condition of no regulation and control, the income gap between urban and rural areas, the cultural gap between urban and rural areas in Shaanxi Province, The gap between urban and rural infrastructure is decreasing slowly in the coming period. The level of industrial convergence between urban and rural areas and the level of economic and social integration between urban and rural areas are rising slowly. Under the state of regulation and control, the level of economic and social integration between urban and rural areas in Shaanxi Province has accelerated, and it has been found that agricultural industrialization, agricultural science and technology, urban and rural population migration, industrial science and technology, urban and rural industrial transfer, information technology, industrial development, Information resources, the development of information industry to its promotion effect in turn decline.
【学位授予单位】：西安理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F299.27;F327

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