新型城镇化的低碳发展路径研究

发布时间：2019-02-12 06:36

【摘要】：我国正处于新型城镇化建设和工业化的快速发展中,新型城镇化是我国未来发展的动力。但我国现行城镇化过程并非低碳,存在城镇建设用地粗放、资源消耗严重、道路交通高碳排放等问题。表明我国城镇化不仅非低碳,反而是高碳高能耗的。为了解决我国城镇化进程和碳减排之间的矛盾,对城镇碳排放量进行计算,并分析城镇碳排放的影响因素,为低碳绿色、以人为本的低碳城镇化道路提供基础。在文献分析的基础上,借鉴国外城镇化低碳发展的经验和教训,分析我国城镇化发展的高碳排放现状。并在收集整理各省能源消费数据的基础上,定量研究1995~2014年间30个省市的城镇碳排放量。通过对城镇化率和城镇碳排放的Eviews相关性分析,表明两者之间是长期协整的,进而对我国30个省市城镇碳排放的影响因素的区域差异进行研究。为研究区域差异,在影响因素分析中,按照城镇化水平将30个省市划分为高、中、低三组样本,采用STIRPAT模型进行分析。本文影响因素的选择依据模型,同时将产业结构作为独立的因子纳入模型中。结果表明,高水平样本组省市对人口因素和富裕程度因子最为敏感,中等水平样本组对收入水平和城镇化率最为敏感,而低水平样本组产业结构因子的系数是三组中最高的。表明,五种因素都对碳排放产生影响,但各因素在不同的城镇化水平下,敏感程度也各不相同。在STIRPAT模型分析的基础上,分别从宏观和微观的角度提出适合我国新型城镇化不同水平发展的低碳路径。宏观上要加强政府制度上的保障,微观上分别对三种不同水平的城镇化提出了不同的发展路径:高城镇化水平省市要顺应城市发展趋势,走平稳适度并消费低碳的城镇化;对中等水平的省市,要调控人口过快增长,走人与环境和谐和理性消费的低碳城镇化;对低城镇化水平省市,要在健康稳步推进城镇化时,走技术支撑低碳可持续的绿色城镇化道路。并提出适合我国低碳城镇化发展的措施。
[Abstract]:Our country is in the new urbanization construction and the industrialization fast development, the new type urbanization is our country future development motive force. However, the current process of urbanization in China is not low-carbon, there are problems such as extensive urban construction land, serious consumption of resources, high carbon emissions from road traffic, and so on. It shows that urbanization in China is not only low carbon, but high carbon and high energy consumption. In order to solve the contradiction between urbanization process and carbon emission reduction in China, this paper calculates the urban carbon emissions and analyzes the influencing factors of urban carbon emissions, which provides the basis for low-carbon green and people-oriented low-carbon urbanization road. On the basis of literature analysis, the current situation of high carbon emission of urbanization in China is analyzed by using the experience and lessons of low carbon development of urbanization abroad for reference. Based on the data of energy consumption in different provinces, the carbon emissions of 30 cities and towns from 1995 to 2014 were studied quantitatively. Through the Eviews correlation analysis of urbanization rate and urban carbon emission, it is shown that there is a long-term cointegration between them, and then the regional differences of influencing factors of urban carbon emissions in 30 provinces and cities in China are studied. In order to study the regional differences, 30 provinces and cities were divided into three groups according to the urbanization level and analyzed by STIRPAT model. The choice of influencing factors is based on the model, and the industrial structure as an independent factor into the model. The results showed that the provinces and cities in the high level sample group were most sensitive to the population factor and the affluence factor, the middle level sample group was the most sensitive to the income level and the urbanization rate, and the coefficient of the industrial structure factor of the low level sample group was the highest among the three groups. The results showed that all of the five factors had an effect on carbon emissions, but the sensitivity of each factor was different under different urbanization levels. Based on the analysis of STIRPAT model, the low-carbon paths suitable for different levels of urbanization in China are put forward from the macro and micro perspectives. Macroscopically, we should strengthen the guarantee of government system, and microscopically put forward different development paths to three different levels of urbanization: the provinces and cities with high urbanization level should conform to the trend of urban development, take a steady and moderate urbanization with low carbon consumption; For the middle level provinces and cities, we should adjust and control the rapid population growth, walk away from the environment and harmonious and rational consumption of low-carbon urbanization; For the provinces and cities with low urbanization level, we should take the technology to support the sustainable green urbanization of low carbon when we promote urbanization healthily and steadily. And put forward the measures suitable for the development of low-carbon urbanization in China.
【学位授予单位】：华北理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F299.21

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