长江中游城市群绿色发展指数测度及时空演变探析——基于GWR模型

发布时间：2019-02-16 12:06

【摘要】：绿色发展兼顾资源环境与社会经济双重效益,是国家重点关注的区域发展新模式。通过熵权-TOPSIS法测度长江中游城市群31个城市的绿色发展指数,借助环境库兹涅茨曲线理论解析造成差异化格局的成因,进一步引入GWR模型深入探讨了影响因素的空间溢出效应,旨在揭示长江中游城市群在绿色发展进程中出现的问题和所面临的处境,加深区域政府及民众对绿色发展的认识,以期全面提升绿色发展指数并缩小其区域差异,推动城市群绿色发展一体化进程,进一步促进环境友好型、资源节约型社会建设。研究发现,(1)2009—2014年长江中游城市群整体绿色发展指数历经了"V"型触底反弹过程,位于绿色发展库伦涅茨曲线拐点左端"两难阶段"的城市数目由2009年的6个增加至2012年的22个,并于2014年降为18个,超过半数的城市仍处于绿色发展的"两难阶段",经济与环境矛盾依然严峻。(2)城市群绿色发展的5大影响因子为:人均GDP、经济密度、第三产业增加值比重、人均当地水资源量、人均公共绿地面积;其中,人均当地水资源量与绿色发展关系由负相关向正相关演进,其余4项影响因素对绿色发展的贡献均为正效应;经济刺激对区域绿色发展的驱动效应逐年减弱,产业结构及资源状况对绿色发展的边际作用力明显提升。(3)2009—2014年襄阳市和常德市呈现差异化演变趋势,前者绿色发展指数逐年锐减,已由绿色发展库兹涅茨曲线上方滑落至曲线下方,后者反之;产业结构、资源保护和绿化治理为襄阳市绿色发展的主要制约因素。
[Abstract]:Green development is a new mode of regional development which pays attention to the dual benefit of resources, environment and social economy. The green development index of 31 cities in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River is measured by entropy weight-TOPSIS method, and the causes of the difference pattern are analyzed with the help of the environmental Kuznets curve theory. The spatial spillover effect of the influencing factors is further discussed by introducing the GWR model in order to reveal the problems and the situation in the green development process of the urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, and to deepen the understanding of the regional governments and the people on the green development. The aim is to promote the green development index and reduce the regional differences, promote the integration process of urban agglomeration green development, and further promote the construction of environment-friendly and resource-saving society. It is found that (1) the overall green development index of urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River experienced a "V" bottoming rebound process in 2009-2014. The number of "dilemmas" at the inflection point of the green development Curennets curve increased from 6 in 2009 to 22 in 2012 and dropped to 18 in 2014, with more than half of the cities still in the "dilemma" of green development. The contradiction between economy and environment is still severe. (2) the five influential factors of urban agglomeration green development are: per capita GDP, economic density, tertiary industry added value proportion, per capita local water resources, per capita public green space area; Among them, the relationship between local water resources per capita and green development evolves from negative to positive, and the contribution of the other four factors to green development is positive. The driving effect of economic stimulus on regional green development is weakened year by year, and the marginal force of industrial structure and resource situation on green development is obviously enhanced. (3) Xiangyang city and Changde city show a trend of differentiation and evolution from 2009-2014. The green development index of the former has decreased sharply year by year, which has fallen from the top of the Kuznets curve to the bottom of the curve, whereas the latter has not. Industrial structure, resource protection and greening management are the main restricting factors of Xiangyang green development.
【作者单位】：湖北大学旅游发展研究院;
【基金】：湖北省社会科学基金项目(2015190)
【分类号】：F299.27;X22

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