延迟退休对我国劳动力供给的影响分析

发布时间：2019-02-28 17:23

【摘要】：人口老龄化问题在世界各国中已广泛存在。近年来,为了应对人口逐渐老龄化的趋势,世界各国特别是老龄化程度比较严重的发达国家纷纷调整了自己法定的退休年龄。我国的人口老龄化问题也不容乐观,在人口老龄化不断加深的情况下,劳动力供给和需求状况也发生了变化,同时也带来了养老保险基金的短缺问题,养老制度改革早已被提上日程,如今,延迟退休也成为大势所趋。我国关于延退的讨论始于20世纪90年代的中期,之后一直被社会各界人士所关注,众多学者对这一问题也开展过研究和讨论。直到2016年初,人社部作出明确表示,延迟退休方案将会在2017年正式出台,并且这一方案出台后会有五年左右的过渡期,过渡期后才会正式实施。本文共分为七章。第一章为本文的绪论部分,包括选题的背景、意义、国内外文献综述、研究方法与技术路线、创新点和不足之处。第二章为相关概念与理论基础。对退休与退休年龄、延迟退休、劳动力市场、劳动力供给等进行了相应的概念界定,阐述了与本文有关的生命周期理论、人力资本理论、延迟退休影响劳动力供给的理论机理。第三章为我国延迟退休政策与劳动力市场相关现状分析。分析了我国现行退休政策的发展历程、我国现行退休政策存在的问题、延迟退休政策的提出与发展以及我国当前劳动力市场供给现状。第四章为延迟退休对劳动力供给的影响分析。首先,从增加适龄劳动人口数量角度和延长人力资本回收期角度来证明延迟退休政策是可以带来正面影响的;然后,验证了延迟退休对劳动力市场供给的负面影响,即对年轻人就业情况可能产生的消极影响,这里运用了计量分析方法,证明了延迟退休政策对青年人就业所产生的挤出效应。第五章为延迟退休的国际经验借鉴。首先归纳了国外实施延退政策的社会背景,重点列举了美国、法国、英国等几个典型发达国家的相关政策实施内容,简要对比部分OECD国家的相关政策实施内容,然后提出了国际经验对于我国的启发和可借鉴之处。第六章为延迟退休的政策建议,包括延迟退休政策实施的基本原则和推进措施两个部分。第七章为本文的结论与展望。本文运用了文献研究法、计量分析法、对比研究法,得出研究结论:延迟退休年龄对于我国的劳动力供给,既存在正面影响也存在负面影响。正面影响主要体现在增加我国适龄劳动人口数量和延长人力资本回收期两个方面,负面影响主要体现在,退休年龄的延迟会在一定程度上对我国的就业起到阻碍作用,尤其是对青年人就业造成一定的不利影响。因此我国在制定延迟退休政策时,需要谨慎研究、统筹兼顾,将不利影响降低到最小的程度。
[Abstract]:The problem of population aging has been widespread in all countries of the world. In recent years, in order to cope with the trend of population aging, many countries in the world, especially the developed countries with serious aging, have adjusted their legal retirement age one after another. The aging of the population in our country is also not optimistic. With the deepening of the aging population, the supply and demand of the labor force has also changed, and at the same time, it has also brought about the shortage of the endowment insurance fund. Pension reform has long been on the agenda, and now delayed retirement has become an irresistible trend. The discussion on delay in China began in the mid-1990s, and has been concerned by people from all walks of life since then. Many scholars have also carried out research and discussion on this issue. Until early 2016, the Ministry made clear that the delayed retirement plan would be formally introduced in 2017, and that the plan would be followed by a transitional period of about five years, after which it would not be formally implemented. This paper is divided into seven chapters. The first chapter is the introduction of this paper, including the background, significance, domestic and foreign literature review, research methods and technical route, innovation and shortcomings. The second chapter is related concepts and theoretical basis. The concept of retirement and retirement age, delayed retirement, labor market, labor supply and so on are defined, and the life cycle theory, human capital theory, and the theoretical mechanism of delayed retirement affecting labor supply are expounded. The third chapter is the analysis of the present situation of delayed retirement policy and labor market in China. This paper analyzes on the development course of the current retirement policy in China, the problems existing in the current retirement policy in China, the proposal and development of the deferred retirement policy, and the present supply situation of the labor market in China. The fourth chapter is the analysis of the impact of delayed retirement on labor supply. First of all, from the perspective of increasing the number of working-age workers and extending the payback period of human capital, it is proved that the policy of delaying retirement can have a positive effect. Then, the negative impact of delayed retirement on the supply of the labour market, that is, the possible negative impact on the employment situation of young people, is verified, and the quantitative analysis method is used here. It is proved that the delayed retirement policy has an crowding-out effect on the employment of young people. The fifth chapter is the international experience of delayed retirement. Firstly, the paper summarizes the social background of the implementation of the deferred policy in foreign countries, emphatically enumerates the relevant policy implementation contents of several typical developed countries, such as the United States, France, Britain and so on, and makes a brief comparison of the relevant policy implementation contents of some OECD countries. Then it puts forward the inspiration and reference of international experience to our country. The sixth chapter is the policy suggestion of delaying retirement, which includes two parts: the basic principle of delay retirement policy implementation and the measures to promote it. The seventh chapter is the conclusion and prospect of this paper. By using the methods of literature research, econometric analysis and comparative study, this paper draws the conclusion that the delayed retirement age has both positive and negative effects on the supply of labor force in China. The positive effects are mainly reflected in the two aspects of increasing the number of working age workers and extending the payback period of human capital in our country. The negative effects are mainly reflected in the fact that the delay in retirement age will hinder the employment of our country to a certain extent. In particular, it has a certain negative impact on the employment of young people. Therefore, in formulating the delayed retirement policy, we need to study carefully and take into account all the factors, so as to reduce the adverse effects to a minimum.
【学位授予单位】：山东财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F249.2

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