基于间接网络的电动汽车充电桩点位布局研究

发布时间：2019-04-07 20:53

【摘要】：电动汽车作为节能减排的有效手段,同时也是国家大力扶持的产业,近年来在社会各界受到了广泛关注。在电动汽车的发展过程中,不可避免的会涉及充电设施,其对电动汽车普及的促进作用不言而喻,但充电桩作为市场产物,具有商业属性,受成本、市场等因素影响。本文从间接网络效应角度出发,分析电动汽车与充电桩市场之间的影响机理,探讨合理的充电桩规模,并基于此对两种类型的充电桩点位的选址进行分析。间接网络效应是研究互补市场中,各自的市场规模对对方的影响,简言之是研究"鸡和蛋"的关系,两者之间既可以是正反馈,带来互利双赢,也可以是负反馈,导致产品推广失败。本文探讨电动汽车市场与充电桩市场间的间接网络效应,分别构建消费者采用决策方程以及充电桩运营企业的进入决策方程,通过联立方程,分析是否到达均衡状态以及均衡点的性质。在达到均衡时,第一个均衡点至关重要,对于互补市场而言,市场规模未超过该点,则市场将最终面临失败,反之,即使在其他条件未变的情况下,市场也会自发的趋向更高层次的普及。本文以北京市为例,通过搜集历年销量数据,通过Eviews回归方程估计具体参数值。这一结论不仅为选址提供约束条件,均衡状态分析还对相关部门出台激励政策提供了参考。在选址部分,主要为公共充电桩点位选址定容。充电桩点位,即充电桩集群,不同于充电站,点位具有无需占地,更加灵活等特点。在以往的研究中,通常将城市内的需求概括为点需求,城市间的需求为路径需求,但在实际生活中,电动汽车作为短途出行工具,往往同时面临点需求和路径需求。本文创新性的综合考虑用户的点需求和路径需求,以服务车辆最多为目标,分别构建一般情形下和基于间接网络效应下的选址定容模型。以海淀区为例,分析2017年四个季度的布局决策,通过Lingo软件进行求解。结果证明,一般情形下,充电桩和电动汽车规模是递减的,而基于间接网络效应情形下,两者是递增的。结合选址结论分析运营商的收益情况可知,后者前期投入大,但收益增长率大于前者。因此,基于间接网络效应的选址定容,对于电动汽车推广以及运营商收益都是有积极影响的。
[Abstract]:Electric vehicle, as an effective means of energy saving and emission reduction, is also an industry supported by our country. In recent years, it has received extensive attention in all walks of life. In the process of the development of electric vehicles, charging facilities will inevitably be involved, and its promotion to the popularization of electric vehicles is self-evident. However, as a product of the market, charging piles have commercial properties and are affected by such factors as cost, market and so on. From the point of view of indirect network effect, this paper analyzes the influence mechanism between electric vehicle and charging pile market, discusses the reasonable size of charging pile, and analyzes the location of two kinds of charging pile points based on this. Indirect network effect is to study the influence of each market size on each other in complementary markets. In short, it is to study the relationship between "chicken and egg". The relationship between the two can be positive feedback, mutual benefit and win-win, or negative feedback. Lead to product promotion failure. In this paper, the indirect network effect between the electric vehicle market and the charging pile market is discussed, and the decision-making equation of consumer adoption and the entry decision-making equation of the charging pile operation enterprise are constructed, respectively, by means of the simultaneous equation. Whether to reach the equilibrium state and the properties of the equilibrium point are analyzed. When equilibrium is reached, the first equilibrium point is essential, and for complementary markets, where the size of the market does not exceed that point, the market will eventually face failure and, conversely, even if other conditions remain unchanged, The market will also spontaneously tend to a higher level of popularity. In this paper, Beijing is taken as an example, by collecting the data of sales over the past years, the specific parameters are estimated by the Eviews regression equation. This conclusion not only provides constraints for location selection, but also provides a reference for the relevant departments to issue incentive policies. In the location part, mainly for the public charging pile site location fixed capacity. Charging pile point, that is, charging pile cluster, which is different from charging station, has the characteristics of no need to occupy land, more flexibility and so on. In previous studies, the demand in a city is usually summarized as a point demand, and the demand between cities is a path demand. However, in real life, as a short-distance travel tool, electric vehicles often face both point demand and path demand. In this paper, considering the user's point requirement and path requirement, this paper takes the maximum number of service vehicles as the goal, and constructs the location and volume determination models under general and indirect network effects respectively. Taking Haidian district as an example, the layout decision of four quarters in 2017 is analyzed and solved by Lingo software. The results show that in general, the size of charging piles and electric vehicles is decreasing, while in the case of indirect network effect, the size of charging piles and electric vehicles is increasing. Combined with the conclusion of location analysis, the operator's income situation shows that the latter has a large initial investment, but the revenue growth rate is greater than that of the former. Therefore, the location and capacity determination based on indirect network effect has a positive impact on the promotion of electric vehicles and the profit of operators.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F299.24

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