城市CIS物理关联脆弱性的动态分析方法

发布时间：2019-06-07 19:28

【摘要】：本文以城市关键基础设施系统(Critical Infrastructure System,CIS)为研究对象,将关键基础设施之间组成的复杂物理网络划分为个体层面、中观层面和系统层面三种类型,从物理关联势差的角度分析了城市CIS内部物理关联机理。根据城市CIS物理关联特性,引入元胞自动机(Cellular Automata,CA),以一种物理资源为主导建立模型,采用"自底向上"的方法,从微观关键基础设施活动推出宏观城市CIS表现。选取元胞连通性、元胞正常状态变化率和传输效率作为脆弱性评估指标,估算不同时间点城市CIS脆弱性的动态变化,实现物理关联脆弱性的动态分析,并运用加权平均值作为一段时间内城市CIS脆弱值。最后,以S城市为例,对物理关联脆弱性动态分析方法的合理性和有效性进行验证,评估结果为城市CIS保护提供支持。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the urban key infrastructure system (Critical Infrastructure System,CIS) is taken as the research object, and the complex physical network composed of key infrastructure is divided into three types: individual level, meso level and system level. The physical correlation mechanism of urban CIS is analyzed from the point of view of physical correlation potential difference. According to the physical correlation characteristics of urban CIS, cellular automaton (Cellular Automata,CA) is introduced, a model is established with a kind of physical resources as the leading factor, and the macro-urban CIS performance is derived from the micro-critical infrastructure activities by using the "bottom-up" method. Cell connectivity, cell normal state change rate and transmission efficiency are selected as vulnerability assessment indexes to estimate the dynamic changes of urban CIS vulnerability at different time points, and to realize the dynamic analysis of physical association vulnerability. The weighted average value is used as the vulnerability value of urban CIS for a period of time. Finally, taking S city as an example, the rationality and effectiveness of the dynamic analysis method of physical association vulnerability are verified, and the evaluation results provide support for urban CIS protection.
【作者单位】：哈尔滨工业大学管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(91024028,91024031,91324018,71473058)
【分类号】：F299.24

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