基于系统动力学的养老地产PPP项目收益模拟仿真

发布时间：2019-07-08 10:19

【摘要】：按照国际上关于老龄化社会的定义,我国在20世纪末就已经进入老龄化社会,且老年人口数仍以每年2.3%的速度向上攀升。国家统计局发布的最新数据显示,2016年我国60岁以上老年人口已达2.31亿,占总人口的16.7%,人口老龄化程度进一步加深。与此相伴的是,以机构养老为支撑的三大养老服务体系发展滞后,存在服务条件差、资源难整合、管理效率低等现实问题。随着我国养老需求不断飙升和房地产行业进入下行周期,我国经济告别高位发展,这些盘绕着的动态变化一步步倒逼着养老地产的快速发展,囿于我国养老产业现阶段的发展困境,房企并未找到盈利模式的合适出口。2016年12月23日,国务院印发《关于全面放开养老服务市场提升养老服务质量的若干意见》中提出对在养老服务领域采取政府和社会资本合作(PPP)方式的项目,可以国有建设用地使用权作价出资或者入股建设。在中国社会情境下,将政府在协助获取土地,审批、养老政策等方面的优势与开发商先进管理水平和高效率的工作模式和产品供给相结合,可以直接降低项目的土地和影子成本,提供更高的产品效率以及利益风险分配。基于此,文章首先分析了养老地产和中国式PPP的内涵,对比中国式PPP和国际PPP的不同点及优缺点,为养老地产PPP项目的运作奠定理论基础。然后,通过讨论PPP在养老地产项目中适用性以及运作机制,为政府在运作PPP项目时的操作流程和实施计划提供参考。其次,对养老地产PPP项目收益的影响因素进行了分析,运用系统动力学方法和Vensim软件建立养老地产PPP项目收益的仿真模型。最后,结合SUNAC公司与北京FX共同开发的紫瑞城PPP项目案例,检验了模型的有效性,对该项目未来30年的收益进行模拟仿真,并观察紫瑞城项目后期收益的走势以及各因素的敏感性分析。论文研究结果表明:中国式PPP和国际PPP有着本质上的区别;在养老地产PPP项目中,租售并举模式的回款速度远超纯会员租赁模式;在租售规模比约为2:1(租售套数比)的情况下,特许会员制价格、年入住量、特许销售价格分别对净现值与特许期的有着正向和负向的敏感性,且其敏感度依次减弱;文章所建立的系统动力学仿真模型能够有效预测养老地产PPP项目的未来收益和投资回收期,并适用于其他PPP项目中;私营企业可通过观察项目的收益走势来决定合作与否,政府可通过测量各因素的敏感性来敲定最终的特许合同细节,进而为项目公司对后期运营策略的调整提供有效的决策支持。
文内图片：

图片说明：项目交通图
[Abstract]:According to the international definition of aging society, China has entered an aging society at the end of the 20th century, and the number of elderly population is still rising at an annual rate of 2.3%. The latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics show that in 2016, the elderly population over 60 years of age in China has reached 231 million, accounting for 167% of the total population, and the aging degree of the population has been further deepened. With this, the development of the three pension service systems supported by institutional pension system lags behind, and there are some practical problems, such as poor service conditions, difficult integration of resources, low management efficiency and so on. With the soaring demand for the aged in China and the downward cycle of the real estate industry, China's economy bid farewell to the high development of the economy, these dynamic changes step by step forced the rapid development of the old-age real estate, due to the current development predicament of the pension industry in China, housing enterprises have not found a suitable export of the profit model. December 23, 2016, In some opinions issued by the State Council on comprehensively liberalizing the market for providing for the aged and improving the quality of old-age services, it is proposed that projects that adopt the mode of government and social capital cooperation (PPP) in the field of old-age services may be invested or invested in the right to use state-owned construction land. In the social situation of China, the combination of the advantages of the government in obtaining land, examination and approval, pension policy and the advanced management level and efficient working mode and product supply of developers can directly reduce the land and shadow cost of the project, and provide higher product efficiency and benefit risk distribution. Based on this, this paper first analyzes the connotation of pension real estate and Chinese PPP, compares the differences, advantages and disadvantages between Chinese PPP and international PPP, and lays a theoretical foundation for the operation of pension real estate PPP project. Then, by discussing the applicability and operation mechanism of PPP in pension real estate projects, this paper provides a reference for the operation process and implementation plan of the government in the operation of PPP projects. Secondly, the influencing factors of pension real estate PPP project income are analyzed, and the simulation model of pension real estate PPP project income is established by using system dynamics method and Vensim software. Finally, combined with the case of Ziruicheng PPP project jointly developed by SUNAC Company and Beijing FX, the validity of the model is tested, the income of the project in the next 30 years is simulated, and the trend of the later income of the Ziruicheng project and the sensitivity analysis of various factors are observed. The results of this paper show that there is an essential difference between Chinese PPP and international PPP. In the PPP project of pension real estate, the return speed of rent and sale mode is much faster than that of pure member rental mode. When the ratio of rent to sale is about 2:1 (the ratio of rental to sale sets), the price of licensed membership, the annual occupancy and the price of concession have positive and negative sensitivity to NPV and concession period, respectively, and their sensitivity is weakened in turn. The system dynamics simulation model established in this paper can effectively predict the future return and investment payback period of pension real estate PPP project, and can be applied to other PPP projects. Private enterprises can decide whether to cooperate by observing the income trend of the project, and the government can finalize the details of the final concession contract by measuring the sensitivity of each factor, thus providing effective decision support for the project company to adjust the later operation strategy.
【学位授予单位】：山东建筑大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：N941.3;F283;F299.23

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