基于内含价值的保险上市公司投资价值分析

发布时间：2018-01-14 19:11

本文关键词：基于内含价值的保险上市公司投资价值分析　出处：《山东财经大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着我国经济实力的不断增强,人们生活日益改善,思想观念也在不断的更新变化。人们开始对保险业有了新的认识并且需求不断增加。日前,《保险法》新一轮地修改使得保险业变得更加有活力。保险“新国十条”放宽了对多种新型金融投资领域的限制,鼓励保险公司进行多种方式的投资;同时也提出了对保险公司投资者的要求,要发挥他们的积极作用,为保险股的长期地稳定地发展提供强有力的支持。保险业发展的核心业务为投资业务和险业承保业务,它们为保险业的发展做出了突出的贡献。随着保险业的快速发展,内部竞争压力也在逐渐增加,承保业务的利润率出现下滑,不足以保证保险公司的稳定经营。在这个时候,投资业务成为重要的利润增长点,为保险业的发展做出突出贡献。保险公司的投资者们最关心的问题是要用何种指标来衡量保险上市公司的投资价值,怎么控制即将面临的市场风险,对保险上市公司的投资价值如何进行客观公正的反思与评价。四家保险上市公司对投资收益率的假设一般是在5.0%到5.5%之间,与实际的收益率比较接近,所以现阶段内含价值法对保险公司进行自身估值是非常合适的。本文运用内含价值法,通过对四家保险上市公司年报中关于描述内含价值数据的分析,从而得出各个保险公司目前的投资价值,并对2015年各指标通过MATLAB软件进行拟合、预测,得出四家保险上市公司在2015年的投资价值。希望通过本文的分析可以给投资者在投资时提供一些参考。在阅读和研究了大量文献后,本文对四家保险上市公司的投资价值进行了研究,本文共分为五个部分,每个部分的内容如下:第一部分为导论,分为四个部分进行论述,研究的背景理及研究意义,国内外对内含价值研究现状,写作方法及研究思路和文章的创新和存在的不足。第二部分介绍内含价值估值方法的原理,包括内含价值的含义和构成,利用内含价值进行价值评估的优势与劣势,内含价值评估方法和步骤,内含价值评估参数的确定,内含价值变动分析和敏感性分析。第三部分为内含价值评估方法的运用,首先对四大保险上市公司公布的内含价值(包括有效业务价值和调整净资产)数据进行分析和对比,然后通过SPSS进行因子分析,得出四家保险上市公司目前的投资价值。第四部分用MATLAB对数据进行多项式拟合得出年份与内含价值、新业务价值、调整后净资产、有效业务价值、净利润和净资产收益率六个指标的函数关系式,得出2015年各指标的大小,然后通过SPSS软件进行因子分析,对四大保险上市公司2015年的投资价值进行预测。第五部分对本文的论述进行总结。
[Abstract]:With China's growing economic strength, the increasing improvement in people's lives, ideas are changing the update. People began to have a new understanding and increasing demand for the insurance industry. The day before, "the insurance law > new round of change makes the insurance industry become more active. The insurance ten new countries relax on a variety of new financial investment restrictions, to encourage insurance companies to conduct various forms of investment; at the same time also put forward to investors in the insurance company's requirements, to play their positive effects, provide strong support for the long-term stable development of insurance stocks. The core business development of the insurance industry for business and investment insurance industry underwriting business, made outstanding contributions for the development of the insurance industry. With the rapid development of the insurance industry, the internal pressure of competition is also gradually increased, underwriting profit margins decline, not enough To ensure the stable operation of the insurance company. At this time, the investment business has become an important profit growth point, have made outstanding contributions for the development of the insurance industry. The insurance company's investors are most concerned about is to measure the listed insurance company with which the indexes of investment value, how to control market risk, how to reflect on and an objective and fair evaluation of the insurance investment value of listed companies. The four listed insurance companies on the investment income rate assumed in general is 5% to 5.5%, compared with the actual rate of return, so at this stage of its intrinsic value valuation of insurance companies is very appropriate. This paper uses the embedded value method based on four insurance listed company's annual report on description and analysis of embedded value data, so that each insurance company investment value at present, and through the M of each index in 2015 ATLAB software fitting prediction, obtained four insurance investment value of Listed Companies in 2015. We hope that this paper can provide some reference to investors in the investment. In reading and studying a lot of literatures, this paper studies on the four insurance investment value of listed companies, this paper is divided into five parts and the contents of each part are as follows: the first part is the introduction, is divided into four parts, the background and research significance of the study, the domestic and foreign research status of value connotation, creative writing methods and research ideas and articles and shortcomings. The second part introduces the principle of embedded value method, including the embedded value the meaning and composition, advantages and disadvantages of value assessment using intrinsic value, intrinsic value assessment methods and steps to determine the parameters of evaluating embedded value, value analysis and inclusion Sensitivity analysis. The third part is the use of embedded value evaluation method, the four listed insurance companies released by the embedded value (including the effective business value and adjusted net assets) were analyzed and compared, then factor analysis is carried out by SPSS, the four insurance investment value of listed companies at present. In the fourth part, using MATLAB polynomial the fitting results of year and the intrinsic value of the data, the value of new business, adjusted net assets, effective business value, the function relation between net profit and net assets income rate of six index, the index that in 2015 the size, then the factor analysis by SPSS software, the four listed insurance companies in 2015 investment value forecast. The fifth part summarizes the discussion on this article.

【学位授予单位】：山东财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F842.3;F840.4

【参考文献】