中国城镇职工基本养老保险改革模式选择与财务可持续性研究

发布时间：2018-02-05 02:00

本文关键词： 养老保险现收现付制基金积累制部分积累制统账结合　出处：《中国社会科学院研究生院》2014年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：自上世纪90年代以来，我国开始实施养老保险制度改革，建立了社会统筹和个人账户相结合的城镇职工基本养老保险制度。但是，由于转轨成本未得到有效解决、制度设计不尽完善以及人口老龄化加剧等因素，引发了社会各界对该制度合理性的广泛关注。本论文在认真梳理以往研究成果、分析制度运行现状的基础上，运用严谨的经济学方法，对以下三个关键问题进行了深入研究并得出了相应的结论。一是关于当前个人账户空账运行的城镇职工基本养老保险制度的性质问题。与国内学术界普遍将我国城镇职工基本养老保险制度归为部分积累制的主流观点不同，本论文在对现收现付制、基金积累制和部分积累制等三种世界最典型养老保险制度的运行机制及特点进行深入比较分析的基础上，认为在当前个人账户空账运行的条件下，我国统账结合的城镇职工基本养老保险制度在性质上应该属于现收现付制，确切地说，，应该属于收益确定型的社会统筹账户和名义账户制的个人账户相结合的现收现付制。二是关于当前我国城镇职工基本养老保险制度改革方向问题。针对学术界争论最集中的现行制度应该补充完善还是另起炉灶的问题，本文从社会福利的帕累托改进和改革成本两个视角进行了深入分析，得出了在当前我国城镇化快速发展、体制内参保人口大幅增长的条件下，选择个人账户空账运行的统账结合基本养老保险制度具有现实合理性和可行性的结论。三是关于我国城镇职工基本养老保险制度的财务可持续性问题。在肯定现行制度合理性的基础上，该制度能否在未来中长期实现财务可持续发展就成为关注的焦点。在借鉴国内外研究成果的基础上，本论文通过对2013-2070年我国城镇职工基本养老保险财务收支状况进行模拟测算后发现，如果现行养老保险参数不进行及时调整，将难以应对人口老龄化的挑战。在此基础上，本论文研究分析了适当延长退休年龄等参数改革以及划拨国有资产、加大财政支持力度等措施对解决养老保险财务收支失衡问题的影响。模拟测算发现，通过及时调整人口政策、适当延长退休年龄并辅之以其他措施，现行城镇职工基本养老保险制度完全可以应对老龄化挑战，从而实现促进制度可持续和改善退休人口福利的双重效果。
[Abstract]:Since -10s, China has begun to implement the reform of the old-age insurance system, and has established a basic old-age insurance system for urban workers combined with social planning and personal accounts. Because the cost of transition has not been effectively solved, the system design is not perfect, and the aging population, and other factors, has aroused widespread concern about the rationality of the system from all walks of life. This paper is carefully combing the previous research results. On the basis of analyzing the current situation of system operation, this paper makes a thorough study of the following three key problems and draws corresponding conclusions by using rigorous economic methods. The first is about the nature of the basic old-age insurance system for urban staff and workers, which is currently running with empty personal accounts. The mainstream view that the basic old-age insurance system for urban workers in China is generally classified as part of the accumulation system in the domestic academic circles is not the main point of view. Same. This paper analyzes the operating mechanism and characteristics of the three most typical old-age insurance systems in the world, such as pay-as-you-go system, fund accumulation system and partial accumulation system. The author thinks that under the condition of empty account operation of personal account, the basic old-age insurance system of urban staff and workers should belong to pay-as-you-go system in nature. The pay-as-you-go system should be a combination of social balance account and personal account. The second is about the direction of the reform of the basic old-age insurance system for urban workers in China. From the perspective of Pareto improvement of social welfare and the cost of reform, this paper makes a deep analysis, and concludes that under the condition of the rapid development of urbanization and the substantial increase of the insured population in the system. It is reasonable and feasible to choose the system of general account and basic old-age insurance. The third is about the financial sustainability of the basic old-age insurance system for urban workers in China, on the basis of affirming the rationality of the current system. Whether this system can realize the financial sustainable development in the future will become the focus of attention, on the basis of drawing lessons from the domestic and foreign research results. This paper through the basic old-age insurance financial income and expenditure of urban workers in China from 2013-2070 to conduct a simulation calculation found that if the current pension insurance parameters do not adjust in time. It will be difficult to cope with the challenge of population aging. On this basis, this paper studies and analyzes the appropriate extension of retirement age and other parameters of reform and the allocation of state-owned assets. Increase financial support and other measures to solve the problem of financial imbalance in pension insurance. Simulation results show that through timely adjustment of population policy, appropriate extension of retirement age and other measures. The current basic old-age insurance system for urban workers can completely meet the challenge of aging, thus realizing the dual effect of promoting the sustainability of the system and improving the welfare of the retired population.
【学位授予单位】：中国社会科学院研究生院
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F842.67;F840.4

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