A股上市保险公司股价趋势研究

发布时间：2018-02-27 21:36

本文关键词： 上市保险公司股票价格综合模糊理论　出处：《山东大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：保险业是国民经济中的重要组成部分,保险行业的健康发展关系着整个社会的安全与稳定。改革开放以来,中国经济迅速发展,居民的可支配收入水平迅速提升,这在很大程度上激发了居民对于保险产品的需求,保险业迎来了快速发展的黄金时期。目前,国内A股市场有四家上市保险公司,分别为中国人寿、中国太保、中国平安和新华保险,这四家险企占据了国内保险行业近一半的市场份额,在行业中具有举足轻重的地位。四家险企在A股上市使投资者能够有机会分享国内保险业发展的成果,如何判断上市保险企业的股票价格走势,对投资者来讲尤为重要。本文采用定性和定量相结合的方法,从上市保险企业面临的内部因素、外部因素着手,运用层次分析法将内、外因层层分析,并采用综合模糊理论对A股四大上市保险公司的股票未来价格走势进行判断。文章分为七部分,第一部分是导论,主要阐述了本文的选题背景、研究上市保险公司股票价格的目的和意义、本文研究方法、创新之处及不足；第二部分阐述了主流的股票估值理论及其它们的优缺点,并介绍了国内外当前的研究现状；第三部分介绍本文的研究方法——综合模糊理论；第四部分将影响A股上市保险公司发展的外部因素分为经济金融、人口社会和政策法律三方面,采用层次分析法详细分析每个方面的子因素：第五部分从上市险企业务状况、公司治理和财务状况三方面将四家A股险企单独分析,详细了解四家保险企业的内部状况；第六部分运用综合模糊理论对A股上市险企的内部、外部因素进行实证分析,并对四家险企的股票价格走势做出判断；第七部分梳理全文的研究过程,并对全文进行总结。通过本文的研究,得出以下结论：四家上市保险公司未来股票价格上升的可能性大于下降的可能性,其中,中国平安在四家险企中表现最优,投资价值最高；国内人口社会环境和政策法律环境对保险公司的发展较为有利,而受国内外宏观经济的影响,保险公司面临的经济金融环境不佳；中国太保和中国人寿在业务经营方面表现较佳,中国平安和中国太保在公司治理和财务方面表现突出。
[Abstract]:The insurance industry is an important part of the national economy. The healthy development of the insurance industry is related to the safety and stability of the whole society. Since the reform and opening up, the Chinese economy has developed rapidly, and the level of disposable income of the residents has been rising rapidly. This to a large extent stimulated the demand for insurance products, insurance industry ushered in a golden period of rapid development. At present, there are four listed insurance companies in the domestic A-share market, namely, China Life Insurance, China Taibao, China Ping an and Xinhua Insurance. These four insurance companies account for nearly half of the market share of the domestic insurance industry. It is very important for investors to judge the stock price trend of listed insurance companies. In this paper, the qualitative and quantitative methods are used to analyze the internal and external factors of the listed insurance enterprises, and the internal and external factors are analyzed by the Analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The paper is divided into seven parts, the first part is the introduction, mainly expounds the background of this paper. The purpose and significance of the research on the stock price of listed insurance companies, the research methods, innovations and shortcomings of this paper. The second part describes the mainstream stock valuation theory and their advantages and disadvantages, and introduces the current research situation at home and abroad. In the third part, the author introduces the research method-comprehensive fuzzy theory. Part 4th divides the external factors that affect the development of A-share listed insurance companies into three aspects: economy and finance, population, society and policy and law. Using AHP to analyze the sub-factors of each aspect in detail: part 5th analyzes the four A-share insurance companies separately from the three aspects of listed insurance business, corporate governance and financial situation, to understand the internal conditions of the four insurance companies in detail; Part 6th uses the comprehensive fuzzy theory to analyze the internal and external factors of A-share listed insurance companies, and makes a judgment on the stock price trend of the four insurance companies; 7th part combs the research process of the full text, and summarizes the full text. Through the research of this paper, the following conclusions are drawn: the possibility of stock price rising in the future of four listed insurance companies is greater than the possibility of falling, among which, Ping an of China is the best among the four insurance companies, and the investment value is the highest; The domestic population social environment and policy and law environment are more favorable to the development of insurance companies, but the economic and financial environment of insurance companies is not good due to the influence of domestic and foreign macroeconomic. China Taibao and China Life performed better in business operations, while China Ping an and China Taibao outperformed in corporate governance and finance.
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.51;F842.3

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