四川省农业保险发展效应的理论与实证分析

发布时间：2018-03-01 12:17

本文关键词： 四川省农业保险效应 VAR模型　出处：《西南财经大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：本文研究内容是四川省农业保险发展的效应。本文首先就农业保险发展效应的内涵进行试探性研究,通过借鉴以往学者对农业保险发展效应内涵的解释,本文提出应从农业保险的交互效应和正负效应两个方面来分析其内涵,并给出相应的原因；在此基础上,本文还提出研究四川省农业保险发展效应的现实意义。接下来进入文章的主体部分。笔者首先就农业保险发展效应进行系统性的理论分析,并从两个方面进行理论分析,一方面是对农业保险发展带来的正效应进行分析,其中主要包括农业保险与财政补贴之间的相互促进效应、农业保险与法律法规之间的相互推动效应、农业保险与农业保障之间的相互带动效应、农业保险与农村经济之间的相互拉动效应等：另一方面是对农业保险发展带来的负效应进行分析,并主要就农险财政补贴的社会福利损失效应进行研究。通过以上对农业保险发展效应进行理论分析的基础上,笔者考虑相关数据的可获得性,着重对四川省农业保险与农村经济之间的相互拉动效应进行实证分析,其中反映农村经济发展的指标选为四川省第一产业增加值、四川省农村居民人均纯收入,反映农业保险发展的指标选为四川省单位受灾面积农业保险赔款支出额、四川省农业保险保费收入,另外因农业受灾程度是联系两者的重要变量,故笔者将其纳入分析模型中,反映其指标选为四川省农业自然灾害受灾比。选取的研究模型为VAR模型(vector autoregressive model),并根据运行的具体结果对两者之间的相互拉动效应进行详细分析,实证结论为：一方面,农业保险保费收入对第一产业增加值的存在显著的正向影响,但存在滞后性,而农险赔款对第一产业增加值的存在显著的正向影响,且不存在滞后性；另一方面,第一产业增加值和农村居民人均纯收入对农业保险保费具有显著的正影响。最后通过以上分析,笔者对如何提升四川省农业保险发展效应给出政策建议,主要包括：不断提高四川省农村经济发展水平,农险财政补贴政策的持续和合理化,加强农业保险法律制度的建设,加强农业保障工作,农业保险与农业信贷相结合等。
[Abstract]:The research content of this paper is the effect of agricultural insurance development in Sichuan province. Firstly, this paper makes a tentative study on the connotation of agricultural insurance development effect, and explains the connotation of agricultural insurance development effect by drawing lessons from previous scholars. This paper puts forward that the connotation of agricultural insurance should be analyzed from two aspects: the interactive effect and the positive and negative effect, and the corresponding reasons are given. This paper also puts forward the practical significance of studying the development effect of agricultural insurance in Sichuan Province. Then, it enters the main part of the article. Firstly, the author makes a systematic theoretical analysis on the development effect of agricultural insurance, and makes a theoretical analysis from two aspects. On the one hand, it analyzes the positive effects brought about by the development of agricultural insurance, including the mutual promotion effect between agricultural insurance and financial subsidies, and the mutual promotion effect between agricultural insurance and laws and regulations. The mutual driving effect between agricultural insurance and agricultural security, the mutual pulling effect between agricultural insurance and rural economy, etc. On the other hand, the negative effect brought by the development of agricultural insurance is analyzed. Based on the above theoretical analysis of the development effect of agricultural insurance, the author considers the availability of relevant data. This paper focuses on the empirical analysis of the mutual pulling effect between agricultural insurance and rural economy in Sichuan Province, in which the index reflecting the development of rural economy is chosen as the added value of the primary industry in Sichuan Province, and the per capita net income of rural residents in Sichuan Province. The index reflecting the development of agricultural insurance is chosen as the expenditure amount of agricultural insurance indemnity per unit affected area of Sichuan province, the insurance premium income of Sichuan agricultural insurance, and because the degree of agricultural disaster is an important variable related to both, the author brings it into the analysis model. The research model selected as VAR model is vector autoregressive model. According to the specific results of operation, the mutual pulling effect between them is analyzed in detail. The empirical conclusions are as follows: on the one hand, The agricultural insurance premium income has a significant positive effect on the value added of the primary industry, but there is a lag, while the agricultural insurance indemnity has a significant positive impact on the value added of the first industry, and there is no lag; on the other hand, The value added of the primary industry and the per capita net income of rural residents have a significant positive impact on the agricultural insurance premium. Finally, through the above analysis, the author gives some policy suggestions on how to promote the development effect of agricultural insurance in Sichuan Province. The main contents include: continuously improving the level of rural economic development in Sichuan Province, continuing and rationalizing the policy of financial subsidy for agricultural insurance, strengthening the construction of the legal system of agricultural insurance, strengthening the work of agricultural security, combining agricultural insurance with agricultural credit, and so on.
【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F842.66

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