农业旱灾风险管理：自我保险与农业旱灾保险

发布时间：2018-03-07 07:25

本文选题：农业旱灾风险　切入点：自我保险　出处：《四川农业大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：农业是受自然灾害影响最大的产业。尤其是旱灾的发生不仅给农民、农村、农业带来巨大的损失,也给整个国民经济的发展造成影响。因此,建立健全农业旱灾风险管理机制能够确保农村经济的可持续发展和国民经济的稳定。自我保险和市场保险作为两种有效的风险管理工具,在Ehrlich和Becker(1972)在对保险需求的经典研究中认为两者是相互替代的。但在农业旱灾风险管理中,农业旱灾保险和自我保险的关系是否同样存在替代关系,实施农业旱灾保险在多大程度上会挤出自我保险仍不明确。这将影响农业旱灾风险管理整体水平的提高。本文将发展Ehrlich和Becker(1972)的研究,对农业旱灾风险管理中的自我保险与农业旱灾保险的关系进行研究,并从自我保险的角度对农业旱灾保险进行评价,最终促进整体农业旱灾风险管理水平的提高。首先,明确农业旱灾风险管理中的自我保险和农业旱灾保险的概念,分析其作用和实施现状。其次,借鉴Ehrlich和Becket(1972)对保险需求的分析框架,通过预期效用和无差异曲线理论,分析农业旱灾保险与农业生产中自我保险是否相互替代,以及特殊性。最后,采用多元线性回归分析模型对2010年的“四川省水稻旱灾保险支付意愿农户问卷调查”的数据进行实证分析。研究旱灾附加保险的购买是否影响防旱措施中自我保险的投入,从而验证农业旱灾保险是否对自我保险具有挤出作用。本文的主要研究结论如下：(1)在农业旱灾风险管理中的自我保险和农业旱灾保险可以共存。在购买农业旱灾保险后,农户仍然会进行自我保险。即在现有的农业旱灾保险制度设计下,自我保险的风险控制和农业旱灾保险的灾后补偿是相互结合,可以共存的。(2)农业旱灾保险对自我保险存在有限挤出作用。购买农业旱灾保险会减少自我保险的投入,但对于自我保险的整体水平而言,减少的程度有限。农户仍然会保持正常的自我保险投入。(3)农业旱灾保险制度的设计可行,但保障水平却仍需提高。农业旱灾保险的普及率较高,灾害发生后能够补偿一定的生产成本,保障农业的再生产。但目前的保障水平还难以实现确保农民收入的增长,保障农业投资安全,稳定农业生产。(4)同时提高农业旱灾保险保障水平和减少自我保险成本能够使农业旱灾风险管理水平最大化。提高农业旱灾保险补贴将更多地挤出自我保险,但完善农业基础设施等措施将减少自我保险的成本,提高自我保险的水平。这将平衡增加农业旱灾保险补贴对自我保险挤出作用。根据研究结论,可提出以下几点政策性启示：(1)完善农业旱灾保险,提高农业旱灾保险的保障水平。(2)加强农田水利建设,完善农业基础设施,减少自我保险成本。(3)分散种植业风险,促进非农收入增加,提高农民抗风险能力。
[Abstract]:Agriculture is the industry most affected by natural disasters. Especially, the occurrence of drought not only brings huge losses to farmers, rural areas and agriculture, but also affects the development of the national economy as a whole. Establishing and perfecting agricultural drought risk management mechanism can ensure the sustainable development of rural economy and the stability of national economy. Self-insurance and market insurance are two effective risk management tools. In the classical study of insurance demand, Ehrlich and Becker (1972) considered that the two are mutually substituted. But in agricultural drought risk management, the relationship between agricultural drought insurance and self-insurance is the same. The extent to which the implementation of agricultural drought insurance will crowd out self-insurance remains unclear. This will affect the overall level of agricultural drought risk management. This paper will develop the research of Ehrlich and Becker (1972) to study the relationship between self-insurance and agricultural drought insurance in agricultural drought risk management, and evaluate the agricultural drought insurance from the perspective of self-insurance. Finally promote the improvement of the overall agricultural drought risk management level. First, define the concepts of self-insurance and agricultural drought insurance in agricultural drought risk management, analyze its role and implementation status. Using the framework of Ehrlich and Becketn 1972to analyze the demand of insurance, through the theory of expected utility and non-difference curve, this paper analyzes whether the agricultural drought insurance and the self-insurance in agricultural production replace each other and the particularity. Based on the multiple linear regression analysis model, this paper makes an empirical analysis on the data of the questionnaire on the willingness to pay of Rice drought Insurance in Sichuan Province in 2010, and studies whether the purchase of additional drought insurance affects the input of self-insurance in drought prevention measures. So as to verify whether agricultural drought insurance has an extrusion effect on self-insurance. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) Self-insurance in agricultural drought risk management and agricultural drought insurance can coexist. Farmers still carry out self-insurance. That is, under the design of the existing agricultural drought insurance system, the risk control of self-insurance and the post-disaster compensation of agricultural drought insurance are combined. Agricultural drought insurance has a limited effect on self-insurance. Purchasing agricultural drought insurance will reduce the input of self-insurance, but for the overall level of self-insurance, The degree of reduction is limited. Farmers will still maintain their normal self-insurance input. 3) the design of the agricultural drought insurance system is feasible, but the level of protection still needs to be improved. After a disaster occurs, it can compensate for certain production costs and ensure agricultural reproduction. However, the current level of guarantee is still difficult to ensure the growth of farmers' income and ensure the safety of agricultural investment. Increasing agricultural drought insurance benefits and reducing the cost of self-insurance can maximize the risk management level of agricultural drought. Increasing subsidies for agricultural drought insurance will more squeeze out self-insurance. But improving agricultural infrastructure and other measures will reduce the cost of self-insurance and increase the level of self-insurance. This will balance the effect of increasing agricultural drought insurance subsidies on self-insurance crowding out. According to the conclusions of the study, we can put forward the following policy implications: 1) improve agricultural drought insurance, improve the level of protection of agricultural drought insurance, and strengthen the construction of farmland water conservancy and improve the agricultural infrastructure. Reduce the cost of self-insurance. 3) disperse the risk of planting, promote the increase of non-agricultural income, and improve the ability of farmers to resist risks.
【学位授予单位】：四川农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F842.66

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