不同人口变动路径对职工基本养老保险基金收支的影响研究——基于“全面二孩”政策调整后的人口模拟分析

发布时间：2018-03-12 15:32

本文选题：“全面二孩”政策　切入点：人口老龄化　出处：《华中师范大学学报(人文社会科学版)》2017年05期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：人口老龄化对我国城镇企业职工基本养老保险制度带来了挑战。文章通过构建人口预测模型和基金收支模型,研究了"全面二孩"政策调整下职工基本养老保险社会统筹基金财务收支关系的变化。研究发现:第一,"全面二孩"政策可以缓解人口老龄化进程,到预测期末,政策调整生育率低、中、高方案下老龄化水平比基准方案分别降低1.8、4.7和8.1个百分点;第二,基准方案下,社会统筹基金将分别在2025年和2032年出现当期缺口和累计缺口;第三,"全面二孩"政策能够改善统筹基金财务状况,预测期末,政策调整生育率低、中、高方案下基金收入比基准方案分别增加4.53%、12.59%和25.1%;第四,进一步分析发现,在维持原生育政策不变下的财务收支状况时,统筹基金缴费率可以从20%下降至17.8%-19.52%。
[Abstract]:The aging of the population has brought challenges to the basic old-age insurance system of urban enterprise workers in China. This paper constructs a population forecasting model and a fund income and expenditure model. This paper studies the changes of the relationship between the financial income and expenditure of the basic old-age insurance social balance fund under the adjustment of the "comprehensive two-child" policy. It is found that: first, the "comprehensive second-child" policy can alleviate the aging process of the population, and reach the end of the forecast period. The fertility rate of the policy adjustment is low, and the aging level under the policy adjustment scheme is 1.84.7 and 8.1 percentage points lower than that of the benchmark scheme, respectively; second, under the benchmark scheme, the current and cumulative gaps will appear in the Social Co-ordination Fund on 2025 and 2032, respectively. Third, the "comprehensive two-child" policy can improve the overall financial situation of the Fund, and forecast the end of the year, the policy adjustment fertility rate will be low, and the fund income under the high scheme will increase by 4.53% or 12.59% and 25.1% respectively over the benchmark scheme; and 4th, further analysis will find that, When maintaining the financial income and expenditure under the original fertility policy, the contribution rate of the overall fund can be reduced from 20% to 17.8- 19.522.
【作者单位】：华中科技大学社会学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目“生育政策调整下目标人群的生育响应研究”(16CRK004)
【分类号】：F842.67

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