长期护理保险财务需求实证分析

发布时间：2018-03-14 02:20

本文选题：长期护理保险　切入点：财务需求　出处：《南京财经大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：20世纪后期出现了很多终极问题,人口老龄化就是其中之一。中国是人口大国,目前老龄化已经非常严重。我国目前的经济尚不发达,如此快速地进入老龄化社会是对我国社会经济的巨大挑战。在社会结构变迁,家庭形态改变,家庭照顾功能逐渐弱化的情况下,如何解决好老年人的护理问题,让老人安度晚年,让子女安心工作,是摆在全社会面前一个亟待解决的问题。因此积极发展长期护理保险显得愈为重要。了解和分析老年人对长期护理保险的需求意愿及财务需求总量,将为长期护理保险制度推行的可行性提供必要的参考。本文首先介绍了研究背景,理论和实际意义,研究内容与方法,以及研究的思路和框架,阐述选题的创新性和可能遇到的难点。其次,通过文献综述介绍了国内外研究现状,并介绍了风险管理理论、需求与供给理论、大数法则理论及控制论,为本文研究长期护理保险的财务需求奠定了理论基础。接着,本文运用SPSS软件对长期护理保险需求影响因素进行分析,通过对所选取的因素和需求意愿进行二元logistic回归,得到结论：文化程度、家庭年收入、对护理保险认知程度、地区、其他保险参保情况、年龄、女儿数、健康状况8个变量对长期护理保险需求意愿有显著影响。因为老年人的长期护理保险需求意愿受多种因素影响,需要政府建立强制性的长期护理保险制度,体现政府的社会风险管理责任。然后,本文运用总体仿真模型法对长期护理保险财务需求进行估算,得到结论：我国长期护理保险的财务需求总量属于正常范围,2015年财务需求占全国GDP的0.46%,此后比重逐渐上升,到2050年财务需求占GDP的比重为1.15%。最后,基于上述结论,本文提出以下六点政策建议：第一,建立强制性长期护理保险制度；第二,制定法律法规,协调部门职能；第三,加大宣传力度,提高需求意愿；第四,建立激励机制,加大补贴力度；第五,构建多渠道的资金筹集机制；第六,规范长期护理服务标准。
[Abstract]:In 20th century, there were many ultimate problems, among which the aging population was one of them. China is a large country with a large population, and the aging is already very serious. The economy of our country is still underdeveloped. It is a great challenge to the society and economy of our country to enter the aging society so quickly. With the change of social structure, the change of family form and the weakening of family care function, how to solve the nursing problems of the elderly is well solved. Let the old man spend his twilight years, let his children work at ease, It is an urgent problem for the whole society. Therefore, it is more and more important to actively develop long-term care insurance. To understand and analyze the desire of the elderly for long-term care insurance and the total amount of financial demand, This paper first introduces the research background, theoretical and practical significance, research contents and methods, as well as the ideas and framework of the research. Secondly, this paper introduces the current situation of domestic and foreign research, and introduces the theory of risk management, the theory of demand and supply, the theory of law of large numbers and the theory of cybernetics. It lays a theoretical foundation for this paper to study the financial needs of long-term care insurance. Then, this paper uses SPSS software to analyze the influencing factors of long-term care insurance demand, and carries out binary logistic regression to the selected factors and demand willingness. Conclusion: education level, family income, cognition of nursing insurance, area, other insurance status, age, number of daughters, Eight variables of health status have a significant effect on the willingness to demand long-term care insurance, because the willingness of the elderly to have long-term care insurance needs to be affected by many factors, so it is necessary for the government to establish a compulsory long-term care insurance system. Then, this paper uses the overall simulation model to estimate the financial needs of long-term care insurance. It is concluded that the total financial demand of long-term care insurance in China belongs to the normal range. In 2015, the financial demand accounted for 0.46% of the national GDP, then the proportion gradually increased, and by 2050, the proportion of financial demand to GDP was 1.15. Finally, based on the above conclusions, This paper puts forward the following six policy suggestions: first, to establish a compulsory long-term care insurance system; second, to formulate laws and regulations to coordinate the functions of the department; third, to increase publicity efforts to increase demand willingness; 4th, to establish an incentive mechanism. Increase subsidy; 5th, build multi-channel fund raising mechanism; 6th, standardize long-term nursing service standard.
【学位授予单位】：南京财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F842.6

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