中国农作物保险效果评估及相关政策改善研究

发布时间：2018-03-14 22:22

本文选题：农作物保险　切入点：效果评估　出处：《中国农业科学院》2014年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：效果评估是风险管理流程中十分重要的一环，通过效果评估既可以对拟定的风险管理政策进行检验，又能为风险管理政策的进一步完善提供依据。农业保险的效果评估和模拟在美国农业保险方案的完善过程中起到了十分重要的作用，而这项工作在我国却十分滞后，虽然2007年以来我国政策性农业保险获得了巨大的发展，但实务中至今尚未开展全面、深入的效果评估工作。因此，在我国农业保险一方面蓬勃发展、一方面经营粗放、许多深层次问题亟待解决的背景下，我国农业保险效果到底如何？如何进行评估？应该如何完善成为社会各界关注、争论和研究的热点，但学界在这方面的研究还远远不够。基于此，为夯实学界在此方面的研究、为实务工作提供理论方法指导，本文在福利经济学理论、农业经济学理论、风险管理理论的指导下，首先对农作物保险效果进行了理论分析，从目标、实施主体、作用客体三个维度对农作物保险效果的内涵和作用机理进行了剖析；其次，对保险效果的外在表现、度量指标及影响因素进行分析，在对效果评估已有方法进行评述的基础上，提出了基于农户效用等值和数值模拟技术的农作物保险效果评估方法；然后，以河北、河南等10个省份1004个农户为例，借助数理统计软件MATLAB、统计软件STATA和专业风险分析软件SIMETAR对我国现行农作物保险的实施效果进行定量评估；最后对保额、保费、保险产品、政府补贴比例等农作物保险效果各影响因素的变动效果进行了模拟仿真，提出了完善我国农作物保险方案具体和有针对性的政策建议。根据理论分析和实证模拟结果，本文得出了如下结论：1）从农户视角评估农作物保险效果较为合适，作物保险效果可以利用农民效用确定性等值进行度量，利用数值模拟技术进行评估；2）我国现行农作物保险确实增加了农民福利水平，对粮食大省的贡献要高于其它省份，但改变保费补贴资金的使用方式（如本文中假定直接补贴给农民）可以发挥更大的作用，因此亟待完善；3）以县为单位精算费率能够显著提升农作物保险效果（10个省份中有7个会因精算费率而受益）；4）保额提高在政府补贴超过一定比例后会增加农民农业保险福利，保持农民福利不变则可以适度降低政府补贴比例；5）50%及以上的平均保费补贴比例是我国农作物保险顺利开展的前提；6）在政府保费补贴一定的情况下保持高补贴比例更为重要；7）区域指数保险+个体保险补充的组合保险效果良好，该思路值得推广试点。本论文的创新之处主要体现在：第一，在农作物保险效果评估的视角和方法方面具有一定创新性，较为系统的构建了农作物保险效果评估的理论分析框架，首次提出并运用数值模拟技术对我国农作物保险方案的实施效果进行了定量评估，并对我国农作物保险几种优化方案的效果进行了模拟，提出了切实可行的优化方案；第二，农作物生产风险评估评估是农作物保险费率厘定的关键环节和重要基础，以往评估方法存在低估风险或无法具体到作物的缺陷，本文根据我国数据资源特点，在国内外首次提出了基于数据融合的评估方法，克服了传统评估方法的不足；第三，首次提出了我国农作物保险可能的产品创新形式：组合保险。
[Abstract]:Effect evaluation is a very important part of risk management in the process of the evaluation can test the proposed risk management policies, and further improve the risk management policy provides the basis for evaluation of agricultural insurance and the effect of simulation in the process of improvement of American agricultural insurance scheme plays a very important role, and the work in our country is very backward, although since 2007, China's agricultural insurance policy has achieved great development, but in practice has yet to carry out a comprehensive and thorough assessment work. Therefore, in the vigorous development of China's agricultural insurance industry on the one hand, on the one hand, management is extensive, many deep-seated problems to be solved under the background, China's agricultural insurance effect how? How to evaluate? How to improve a social concern, hot debate and research, but the academic research in this field is It's far from enough.
Based on this, for the study of solid circles in this aspect, to provide theoretical guidance for the practical work based on the theory of welfare economics, agricultural economics theory, risk management theory, firstly the theoretical analysis, from the target to the implementation of the main crop insurance effect, the three dimensions of role object connotation to crop insurance effect and the mechanism is analyzed; secondly, the external manifestations of the insurance effect, measure index and influencing factors analysis, based on the evaluation of the existing methods are reviewed, presents the method to evaluate the effectiveness of the equivalent of farmers and numerical simulation based on crop insurance effect; then, in Hebei, Henan and other 10 provinces in 1004 farmers as an example, using MATLAB statistical software, statistical software STATA and the professional risk analysis software SIMETAR on the effect of crop insurance in our country. We conduct quantitative evaluation. Finally, we simulate the effect of various factors on crop insurance effect, such as the amount of insurance, premium, insurance products and the proportion of government subsidies, and put forward specific and targeted policy recommendations for improving crop insurance program in China.
According to the theoretical analysis and empirical results, this paper draws the following conclusions: 1) from the perspective of farmers to assess crop insurance effect is more appropriate, crop insurance effect can be measured by the certainty equivalent utility, using numerical simulation technology for evaluation; 2) the current crop insurance in China has increased the level of farmers' welfare, the province of grain the contribution is higher than other provinces, but the change of premium subsidies (such as the use of the assumption of direct subsidies to farmers) can play a greater role, therefore needs to be improved; 3) to the county as a unit of actuarial rates can significantly enhance the effect of crop insurance (10 provinces in 7 due to the actuarial rate and benefit) 4); increase more than a certain proportion in the amount of government subsidies will increase farmers' agricultural insurance and welfare, the welfare of the peasants keep unchanged can moderately reduce government subsidies proportion; 5 50%) and above average proportion of premium subsidies is a prerequisite for the smooth development of the crop insurance in China; 6) to maintain a high proportion of subsidies is more important in the case of government premium subsidies of 7); regional index insurance + individual insurance supplement the portfolio insurance effect is good, the idea is worth promoting the pilot.
The innovation of this paper is mainly reflected in: first, the innovative perspective and methods in the assessment of crop insurance effect, systematically constructs the evaluation of crop insurance effect theory analysis framework is proposed for the first time and the use of numerical simulation for quantitative assessment of the implementation of the effect of technology on China's agricultural crop insurance program, and the effect of of China's crop insurance several optimizing schemes are simulated, proposed the optimization scheme is feasible; second, risk assessment of crop production is the important foundation and key link of crop insurance pricing, the previous evaluation methods have underestimated the risk or not specific to the crop defects, according to the characteristics of China's data resources in China for the first time put forward an evaluation method based on data fusion, to overcome the shortcomings of traditional evaluation methods; third, for the first time in China were put forward. The possible product innovation of crop insurance: combination insurance.

【学位授予单位】：中国农业科学院
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F842.66

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