基于局部多项式模型的沿海地区保险发展与经济增长之间动态关系研究

发布时间：2018-03-19 16:17

本文选题：沿海地区　切入点：保险密度　出处：《中央财经大学学报》2015年10期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：笔者以保险业发展与经济增长之间的关系为研究基础,以中国沿海地区作为研究对象,探寻沿海地区保险业发展与经济增长之间的动态影响路径。根据局部多项式估计结果,对区域保险密度与人均GDP之间的拟合效果、单调性、凹凸性及动态变化特征进行分析后得出的结论是:保险业发展与区域经济增长之间的效率及边际收益在沿海不同地区之间存在着明显的差异,各区域两变量的关系在2003年前后呈现出由复杂到简单的动态变化过程。以沿海地区整体保险业发展与经济增长的拟合曲线作为参照标准,北部沿海地区与南部沿海地区的拟合曲线变化相对稳定,东部沿海地区拟合曲线的变化较为复杂。总体上,沿海地区保险业发展对经济增长的正向作用是可以肯定的,边际产出递减规律在大多数情况下也成立。在此基础上,笔者从政策制定的针对性、产业发展的优先性等方面提出有关各沿海地区促进保险业发展的对策性建议。
[Abstract]:Based on the study of the relationship between insurance development and economic growth, and taking the coastal areas of China as the object of study, the author explores the dynamic influence path between the development of insurance industry and economic growth in coastal areas, and estimates the results according to local polynomials. The fitting effect between regional insurance density and per capita GDP, monotonicity, After analyzing the characteristics of concavity and convexity and dynamic change, it is concluded that there are obvious differences in efficiency and marginal income between the development of insurance industry and regional economic growth in different coastal areas. The relationship between the two variables of each region shows a dynamic process from complex to simple around 2003. The fitting curve between the overall insurance development and economic growth in coastal areas is taken as the reference standard. The variation of the fitting curve between the northern coastal region and the southern coastal area is relatively stable, while that of the eastern coastal area is relatively complex. In general, the positive effect of the development of the insurance industry in the coastal area on the economic growth is certain. The law of diminishing marginal output is also true in most cases. On the basis of this, the author puts forward some suggestions on how to promote the development of insurance industry in coastal areas from the aspects of the pertinence of policy making and the priority of industrial development.
【作者单位】：中国海洋大学经济学院;中国海洋大学海洋环境学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目“风暴潮灾害脆弱性测度及损失补偿对策研究”(项目编号:71373247) 教育部人文社科青年项目“基于SSIO损失评估模型的风暴潮灾害保险多主体参与对策研究”(项目编号:14YJCZH223) 山东省优秀中青年科学家科研奖励基金“多元协同的海洋灾害保险参与机制研究”(项目编号:BS2014HZ017)
【分类号】：F842.7

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