我国新型农村社会养老保险实施效果研究

发布时间：2018-03-21 00:39

本文选题：新型农村社会养老保险　切入点：断点回归设计　出处：《山西财经大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：新农保政策自从试点以来,受到了各界的关注,但是这项政策是否实现了最初的目标,还有待实证结果的进一步验证。因此,本文使用CHARLS数据库,运用断点回归以及倾向得分匹配方法,估计了该项政策的实施效果。全文分成七个章节,第一章是绪论;第二章是文献综述,这一章对相关文献进行分块整理,最后说明后文将要做的深化与完善;第三章是理论分析,就养老保险相关的理论进行分类整理;第四章是宏观分析,从宏观层面分析了政策覆盖及保障情况;第五章是基于断点回归方法的实证分析;第六章是基于倾向得分匹配的实证分析;第七章是结论与政策建议。本文的结果显示,在收入方面,领取养老金能够提高家庭收入,使得经济保障能力增强。进一步研究表明,将居民收入分组之后,养老金对低收入群体的影响效应最强;对收入中等群体影响程度次之,对高收入群体的影响效应最弱;在消费方面,参保在一定程度上刺激了家庭消费,支出额有所增加,从整体上看,新农保政策在农村地区的实施,增加了居民信心,人们对这项政策期望很高。另外,对老年人养老模式的影响结果表明,在居住安排偏好方面,新农保使得老年人降低了与子女同住的可能性,并且由k近邻匹配得到的降低程度最大,与子女同住的可能性降低了7.9个百分点。在代际支持金额方面,新农保养老金增加了老人与子女之间的代际支持金额,并没有对子女代际支持产生“挤出”效应,代际支持金额的增加,一方面体现了新农保养老金的保障额度仍然有限,并没有“挤出”子女代际支持;另一方面也可能像一些文献中提到的那样,与子女同住能够实现家庭的规模经济效应,能够从子女那里得到更多隐性经济支持,这种支持人们一般不会精确计算金钱投入。参保之后有些老人选择独居,这部分经济支持将会突显出来,因此会出现代际支持金额增加的情况。在养老资金来源方面,五种匹配方法得到的结果略有差异,但都体现了新农保使得农村老年人的养老资金来自家庭的可能性下降,大约降低6个百分点,并且在95%的置信水平上显著。这说明农村老年人的养老资金来源不再单纯的依靠储蓄或者子女供给,也从一定程度上依靠养老金或者商业养老保险。综上所述,尽管取得了一定成果,但新农保政策目前的保障水平依然较低,新农保的影响效果十分有限,为了使这项惠农政策具有可持续性,还有很长的一段路需要走,需要探求与市场经济发展相适应的政策实施方案,真正实现农村地区老有所养。
[Abstract]:Since the pilot, the new rural insurance policy has attracted much attention from all walks of life. However, whether the policy has achieved its initial goal or not has yet to be further verified by the empirical results. Therefore, this paper uses CHARLS database. Using breakpoint regression and tendency score matching method, the paper estimates the effect of the policy. The paper is divided into seven chapters, the first chapter is the introduction, the second chapter is the literature review, this chapter classifies the relevant documents. The third chapter is the theoretical analysis, the related theory of pension insurance is sorted out; the 4th chapter is the macro analysis, from the macro level to analyze the policy coverage and security situation; Chapter 5th is empirical analysis based on breakpoint regression method; Chapter 6th is empirical analysis based on propensity score matching; Chapter 7th is conclusion and policy recommendations. Further research shows that pension has the strongest effect on the low-income group, followed by the middle income group and the high-income group. In terms of consumption, participation in insurance has stimulated household consumption to a certain extent, and the amount of expenditure has increased. On the whole, the implementation of the new rural insurance policy in rural areas has increased the confidence of the residents, and people have high expectations for this policy. The results show that, in the aspect of living arrangement preference, the new rural insurance makes the elderly less likely to live with their children, and the degree of reduction obtained by the k-nearest neighbor matching is the greatest. The possibility of living with their children was reduced by 7.9 percentage points. In terms of the amount of intergenerational support, the New Rural Insurance Pension increased the amount of intergenerational support between the elderly and the children, and did not have an "crowding out" effect on the intergenerational support of the children. The increase in the amount of intergenerational support reflects, on the one hand, that the coverage of the new rural pension is still limited and that it does not "crowd out" the intergenerational support of children; on the other hand, it may also be as mentioned in some literature. Living with your children can achieve the economies of scale of your family, and you can get more hidden financial support from your children. This kind of support generally doesn't accurately calculate your money. Some old people choose to live alone after the insurance. This part of the financial support will be highlighted, so there will be an increase in the amount of intergenerational support. In terms of the source of pension funds, the results of the five matching methods are slightly different. But they all reflect the fact that the new rural insurance has reduced the likelihood that the old-age pension funds of the rural elderly will come from their families, which is about 6 percentage points lower. And it is significant in the confidence level of 95%. This shows that the old people in rural areas no longer rely solely on savings or child supply, but also depend on pension or commercial old-age insurance to some extent. To sum up, Although some achievements have been made, the current level of protection of the new rural insurance policy is still relatively low, and the impact of the new rural insurance policy is very limited. In order to make the policy sustainable, there is still a long way to go. Need to explore the development of market economy in line with the implementation of policies to truly achieve a sense of security in rural areas.
【学位授予单位】：山西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F842.67;F323.89

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