出口信用保险贸易促进作用的地区差异和门槛效应——基于中国省际面板数据的分析

发布时间：2018-03-21 23:03

本文选题：出口信用保险　切入点：促进作用　出处：《保险研究》2017年08期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本文基于中国进出口信用保险公司22家省级分公司的业务数据,以出口信用保险保费而非保额为核心解释变量,构建了分析出口信用保险出口促进作用的省际面板数据模型。利用工具变量法,以2SLS和GMM法估计有效地解决了出口额和保费间的内生性问题。实证结果表明,出口信用保险对中国出口有显著的促进作用,金融危机期间表现得尤其明显,具有较强的"逆周期性"。出口信用保险的出口促进作用存在显著的地区差异,对中部地区出口的边际促进作用最大,西部次之,东部最小。出口信用保险的出口促进作用还具有显著的门槛效应,当发展到特定水平,越过某个门槛后,对出口的促进作用会显著增强,甚至发生质的飞跃。对赔付率低且稳定的中西部省份,保险人应实施积极的承保策略,以更有效地促进出口。通过出口信用保险政策支持出口必须将支持力度提高至一定的水平,否则不会产生预期的效果。
[Abstract]:Based on the business data of 22 provincial branches of China Import and Export Credit Insurance Company, this paper takes the export credit insurance premium as the core explanatory variable. This paper constructs a provincial panel data model to analyze export promotion of export credit insurance. By means of tool variable method, 2SLS and GMM methods are used to estimate the endogeneity between export value and premium. The empirical results show that, Export credit insurance plays a significant role in promoting China's exports, especially during the financial crisis, and has a strong "counter-cyclical" effect. There are significant regional differences in the export promotion effects of export credit insurance. The marginal promotion of export in the central region is the largest, followed by the west, and the smallest in the east. The export promotion of export credit insurance also has a significant threshold effect. When the export credit insurance reaches a specific level and passes a certain threshold, The promotion of exports will be significantly enhanced, or even qualitative leaps will occur. Insurers should implement active underwriting strategies for provinces in the central and western regions with low and stable odds of loss. Export support through export credit insurance policies must be increased to a certain level, otherwise it will not have the desired effect.
【作者单位】：闽江学院新华都商学院;中国保险监督管理委员会财产保险监管部;
【基金】：2017年福建省自然科学基金项目“福建省基于车载通讯系统实施UBI汽车保险的可行性研究”(批准号:2017J01799) 2015年福建省社科规划项目“延迟退休年龄与延迟申领养老金年龄的框架效应研究”(批准号:FJ2015B209) 2015年福建省中青年教师教育科研项目“基于职业年金发展的养老保险并轨研究”(批准号:JAS150475)
【分类号】：F752.62;F842.682

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