我国寿险公司盈利能力研究

发布时间：2018-03-25 03:18

本文选题：盈利能力　切入点：蒙特卡洛模拟　出处：《北京工商大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：作为市场经济的产物，，寿险公司继承了一般企业追求利润最大化的基本经营目标。自1982年我国恢复人身险业务以来，寿险公司的保费规模和经营效率都在逐步提高，承保业务和投资业务作为寿险公司的两个利润来源，在寿险公司实践经营活动中受到重点关注。总的来说，国内对寿险公司盈利能力的研究还不深入，本文将结合概率统计理论，运用蒙特卡洛模拟方法，利用历史经验数据，分析我国寿险公司利润产生路径并建立模型，模拟未来五年寿险公司盈利情况并将各考察因素对利润产生的影响进行定量分析，分析我国寿险公司未来的盈利能力及主要影响因素，为提高我国寿险公司盈利能力提供参考。结果表明:我国寿险公司在未来五年的盈利能力状况良好，但存在一定波动;投资业务将成为未来五年寿险公司利润的主要可能增长点，且在银行存款、基金、证券及股权五类投资中，股权投资将对利润的贡献度最大；退保率对寿险公司盈利能力的影响在长期内不显著。对于此实证结果，作者认为应该做四个方面的努力，以改进寿险公司盈利能力。第一，进一步放宽投资渠道与投资比例，优化投资结构；第二，强化内部控制与赔（给）付管理，改变寿险营销模式；第三，加强寿险产品创新设计，提高保险服务水平，妥善处理退保现象，重塑保险业形象；第四，严格执行保险监督管理委员会“防风险、促发展”的决策部署，脱掉“虚盈利”的华丽外衣，警惕新主体快速盈利下的风险。
[Abstract]:As the product of market economy, life insurance company inherits the basic business goal of seeking profit maximization. Since 1982, the life insurance company's insurance premium scale and operation efficiency have been improving gradually since our country resumed the life insurance business. As two sources of profit for life insurance companies, underwriting business and investment business have attracted great attention in the practice of life insurance companies. In general, domestic research on the profitability of life insurance companies has not been thoroughly studied. In this paper, combining with the theory of probability and statistics, using Monte Carlo simulation method and using historical experience data, we will analyze the profit generation path of life insurance companies in China and establish a model. This paper simulates the profit situation of life insurance companies in the next five years and analyzes the future profitability and main influencing factors of life insurance companies in our country by means of quantitative analysis of the influence of various factors on the profit, so as to provide a reference for improving the profitability of life insurance companies in China. The results show that the profitability of Chinese life insurance companies in the next five years is good, but there are certain fluctuations, and investment business will become the main possible growth point of life insurance companies' profits in the next five years. Among the five types of investment in securities and equity, equity investment will contribute the most to profits, and the impact of withdrawal rate on the profitability of life insurance companies is not significant in the long run. To improve the profitability of life insurance companies. First, to further relax the investment channels and investment ratio, optimize the investment structure; second, strengthen internal control and compensation (payment) management, change the life insurance marketing model; third, We should strengthen the innovative design of life insurance products, improve the level of insurance service, properly handle the phenomenon of withdrawal of insurance, and reshape the image of the insurance industry. Fourth, we should strictly implement the policy plan of the Insurance Supervision and Administration Commission to "prevent risks and promote development". Take off the "false profit" of the ornate coat, beware of the new subject under the risk of rapid profit.
【学位授予单位】：北京工商大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F842.3

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