中国社会保险费的就业效应研究

发布时间：2018-03-30 12:57

本文选题：社会保险费　切入点：缴费基数　出处：《华中科技大学》2013年博士论文

【摘要】：中国社会保险制度经过几十年的发展,特别是改革开放以来的重大改革,已经取得了显著的成就。然而,在劳动力资源十分丰富且劳动市场规制不断完善和升级的背景下,由于缴费率偏高、缴费基数增长过快,以及相关制度及机制设计的缺陷与不足,我国社会保险缴费制度对就业产生了一定的负面影响。为减少社会保险缴费制度对就业产生的负效应,本文拟在梳理社会保险费就业效应的理论和实证研究文献的基础上,应用相关经济理论和计量方法,对中国社会保险费的就业效应进行系统研究和分析,并提出改善社保缴费制度就业效应的政策建议,以促进我国的社会保险制度健康发展,真正提升中国社会保险制度的福利效应和就业效应。我国现行社会保险缴费制度在筹资模式、缴费基数、统筹层次和征缴体制等方面都存在不利于就业的因素,加上劳动力供求关系的结构性失衡,我国失业问题的严重性远远超过官方统计数据显示的程度。中国社会保险缴费的快速上涨增加了企业的用工成本,而“最低工资”规制使企业无法通过进一步降低工资以完全转嫁缴费给企业带来的成本负担,因此,过高的社会保险缴费可能导致企业减少对劳动力的需求；另一方面,由于社会保险费减少了劳动者的可支配收入,而缴费的未来收益又存在不确定性,因此过快增长的社会保险费还可能影响劳动力供给。显然,过高的社会保险缴费会从劳动力供求两方面对就业产生不利影响。本文基于我国社保缴费模式的特点和劳动力市场现状,对社会保险费的就业效应进行计量检验并得出相关结论。第一、检验了我国社会保险费的就业挤出效应。首先通过1989～2011年的时序数据发现我国社会保险费与失业量之间存在长期的协整关系,社会保险费是失业增加的格兰杰原因；然后通过2004～2010年的省级面板数据分析,发现社会保险费对就业有显著的挤出效应：对高收入地区的就业挤出效应大于中低收入地区,对总就业的挤出效应大于城镇就业。究其原因,前者与收入水平相对较高的地区社会保险覆盖面更广,征缴力度更大,监管更加严格等因素有关,后者与总就业中低技能低收入劳动者所占的比重高于城镇就业有关,这也说明社会保险缴费对低层次劳动者就业的挤出效应更大。第二、检验了社会保险费的劳动供给效应。本文把社会保险费的上涨对劳动供给的影响当作一项准自然实验,利用中国营养与健康调查(CHNS)的跨期横截面数据研究表明,社会保险费的上涨对参加城镇社保体系的男性劳动供给有正效应,但对低收入女性的劳动供给有负效应。女性劳动时间的减少可能与我国劳动力市场上女性的相对弱势地位和承担的家务责任有关；男性劳动时间的延长与Stiglitz所指出的在劳动供给相对充裕而社会福利水平较低的国家,劳动者需要更加努力工作赚钱以预防今后可能发生的各种风险有关。研究还发现,劳动者的工作时间普遍超过了国家法定工作时间,这也说明社会保险费的上涨会增加男性过度劳动的风险,进而对社会福利也有消极的影响。第三、检验了社会保险最低缴费基数的就业效应。由于社保最低缴费基数一般高于最低工资标准,因此我国大部分城市低收入劳动者的实际社保缴费率高于名义缴费率,这对低收入者就业产生了不利的影响。北京、上海、天津、重庆四个直辖市的经验证据表明,相比起上调最低工资标准,社保最低缴费基数的上涨对就业的负面影响更为严重。这是因为最低工资标准的提高是资金从企业向劳动者的转移,劳动者可能会付出更多的工作努力；而社保最低缴费基数的提高导致资金从企业向社保统筹账户的转移,带有典型的税收性质。因此在给企业增加的用工成本相同的情况下,社保最低缴费基数的上调对就业的挤出效应将超过最低工资标准的提高。我国社保缴费制度改革的主要目的是通过针对性的制度改良以减少社会保险缴费对就业的不利影响。通过对国际上社保缴费制度设计和缴费结构调整等方面经验的梳理,本文提出了适度降低社会保险缴费率、加大政府对社保的专项转移支付、取消缴费工资基数下限以及对低收入者进行社保费补贴等政策建议,并指出向名义账户制转型有可能是我国社会保险缴费体制改革的方向。
[Abstract]:Chinese social insurance system after decades of development, especially major reform since the reform and opening up, has made remarkable achievements. However, relatively abundant labor resources and labor market regulation continues to improve and upgrade the background, the contribution rate is high, the base pay increases too fast, and the related system design defects and its mechanism and the lack of social insurance system in China has a negative impact on employment. To reduce the negative effect of social insurance system of employment, this paper based on theoretical and empirical research literature in the sort of social insurance on the employment effects on the application of relevant economic theory and econometric methods, research and analysis of system the employment effect of Chinese social insurance premiums, and put forward the improvement of social security payment system on the employment effects of policy recommendations to promote the healthy development of social insurance system in China To truly improve the welfare and employment effects of China's social insurance system.
China's current social insurance system in the mode of financing, payment base, overall level and collection system are factors not conducive to employment, structural imbalance and the relationship between labor supply and demand, the serious problem of unemployment in our country is far more than the official statistics data. The rapid rise in Chinese social insurance payment of the enterprise the cost of labor, and the "minimum wage" regulation to enable enterprises to further reduce wages in order to fully pass through payment brings to the enterprise cost burden, therefore, the payment of social insurance is too high may cause the enterprise to reduce the demand for labor; on the other hand, because of the social insurance premiums reduced workers disposable income, and payment in the future returns and uncertainty, so the social insurance premium growth could also affect labor supply. Obviously, the high social insurance payment It will have an adverse effect on employment from the two sides of labor supply and demand. Based on the characteristics of social insurance payment mode and the status quo of labor market in China, this paper makes a quantitative test of the social insurance premium's employment effect and draws relevant conclusions.
First, the test of social insurance in China. First, the crowding out effect by the time series data of 1989~2011 years found that there exists long-term cointegration relationship between China's social insurance premium and the amount of unemployment, social insurance is the Grainger reason of increasing unemployment; and then through the provincial panel data analysis of the 2004~2010 year, that social insurance premiums have crowding out significant effect on employment of higher income areas: the crowding out effect is greater than the low income area, the crowding out effect on total employment than urban employment. The reason for the relatively high level of income and the area of social insurance coverage, the collection of greater intensity, the more strict regulatory factors, the latter and total employment low skill and low income workers the proportion is higher than that of urban employment, this also shows that the crowding out effect of social insurance payment of low level employment is greater.
Second, to test the effect of the social insurance labor supply. The influence of social insurance on the labor supply rose as a quasi natural experiment, using Chinese health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS) across the cross-sectional data shows that social insurance premiums rise had positive effect on the urban social security system. The male labor supply, but have a negative effect on the labor supply of low-income women. Women may reduce the labor time and the relatively weak position in the labor market and women bear the housework responsibility; extension with Stiglitz male labor time that the labor supply is relatively abundant and lower level of social welfare countries. Workers need to work harder to make money to prevent various risks may occur in the future. The study also found that the working hours are generally more than the statutory working hours It also shows that the rise in social insurance premiums will increase the risk of excessive labor for men, and also have a negative impact on social welfare.
Third, test the employment effect of social insurance contribution base. Because of the lowest minimum social security contribution base is generally higher than the minimum wage, so the actual payment of social security in most of our city low income rate is higher than the nominal premium rate, the low income employment adversely affected. Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Chongqing four empirical evidence municipalities showed that compared with the minimum wage increases, the negative impact of the minimum social security contribution base on rising employment is more serious. This is because the minimum wage is to transfer funds from the enterprise to the workers, workers may have to pay more to work; and the minimum social security contribution base leads to the increase in the transfer of funds and from the enterprise to the social security account, with the typical nature of the tax. Therefore enterprises to increase labor costs under the same conditions, the minimum social security payment The extruice effect of the fee base on employment will exceed the increase in the minimum wage.
The main purpose of China's social security payment system reform is the improvement of the system in order to reduce the adverse effects of social insurance payment on employment. Based on the international social security payment system design and payment structure adjustment experience analysis, is presented in this paper reduce social insurance payment rate, increase the government on social security special transfer payments cancel the payment of wages lower base and social insurance premium subsidies policy recommendations for low income people, and pointed out to the nominal account system transformation is possible is to reform the paying system of social insurance in China.

【学位授予单位】：华中科技大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F842.6;F249.21

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