新型农村社会养老保险对农民消费水平的影响研究及实证分析

发布时间：2018-04-02 11:07

本文选题：新农保　切入点：农民消费　出处：《中国农业科学院》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：新型农村社会养老保险政策是我国政府为了进一步保障农民老年生活而推出的社会保障措施,该政策于2009年12月正式开展了试点工作,在一定程度上减轻了我国农民的养老之忧,受到社会各界的广泛好评。对于新农保在宏观经济领域的影响,即新农保与农民消费水平的关系,学术界一直存在争议。本文建立了从大到小三个层次的模型,包括生命周期模型、倍差法模型和结构方程模型,全面测算了新农保对农民消费的影响并深入探究了政策影响机制,为研究我国新农保和农民消费的关系贡献了新的方法和思路。首先,本文运用1997-2011年从探索到试点实施的数据做回归分析,结果证明新农保可以有效促进农民消费增加,新农保支出增加1%,消费相应增加0.046%,说明新农保在全国范围内具有拉动内需的作用。其次,本文选取山西省作为代表省份,对其试点和非试点进行对比研究,根据倍差法建立的模型得出结论,在全省范围内新农保抑制了消费增加；而经济条件较好的地区消费可以增加2.52%。这说明新农保对于不同区域影响不同,实施力度还需要进一步加强。最后,本文运用结构方程模型得出新农保对农民消费有正负两方面的影响,通过增加农民的安全感和收入感知促进农民消费,同时新农保的保费缴纳也挤出了部分的消费。由此可见虽然新农保在心理上减弱了农民对未来养老的不确定性,但其保障作用仍有待加强。经过综合研究,本文建议加大新农保施行力度并尽快探索相关机制的创新。我国农村社会保障和新农保事业的发展体现了政府对农民群体的关注和重视,也是我国社会稳定、经济发展必不可少的后盾。本文从三方面提出了政策建议：(1)继续加大新农保实施力度,确保其持续健康发展；(2)重视对养老保障体系的研究,充分发挥其良性作用；(3)定期调研新农保进展,完善数据统计。
[Abstract]:The new rural social old-age insurance policy is a social security measure introduced by our government in order to further protect the elderly peasants' life. The policy officially launched the pilot work in December 2009. To a certain extent, it has alleviated the worries of the peasants for the aged in our country, and has been widely praised by all walks of life in the society. As for the influence of the new rural insurance in the macroeconomic field, that is, the relationship between the new rural insurance and the consumption level of the peasants, There has always been controversy in academic circles. In this paper, three levels of models from large to small are established, including life cycle model, double difference model and structural equation model. This paper comprehensively estimates the influence of new rural insurance on farmers' consumption and probes into the policy influence mechanism, which contributes new methods and ideas to the study of the relationship between new rural insurance and farmers' consumption in China. First of all, this paper uses the data from 1997 to 2011 to do regression analysis, the results show that the new rural insurance can effectively promote the increase of farmers' consumption. The expenditure of new rural insurance increases by 1 and consumption increases correspondingly by 0.046, which shows that the new rural insurance has the function of stimulating domestic demand in the whole country. Secondly, this paper selects Shanxi Province as the representative province, and makes a comparative study on its pilot and non-pilot projects. According to the model established by the double difference method, it is concluded that the new rural insurance can restrain the increase of consumption in the whole province, while the consumption in the areas with better economic conditions can increase by 2.52, which indicates that the new rural insurance has different effects on different regions. Finally, using the structural equation model, this paper draws a conclusion that the new rural insurance has a positive and negative impact on farmers' consumption, and promotes farmers' consumption by increasing their sense of security and income perception. At the same time, the premium payment of the new rural insurance has also squeezed out part of the consumption. It can be seen that although the new rural insurance weakens the uncertainty of the peasants' pension in the future psychologically, it still needs to be strengthened. After a comprehensive study, this paper suggests to strengthen the implementation of new rural insurance and explore the innovation of relevant mechanisms as soon as possible. The development of rural social security and new rural insurance in China reflects the government's concern and attention to farmers' groups, and is also the social stability of our country. This paper puts forward policy recommendations from three aspects: 1) continue to strengthen the implementation of new rural insurance, to ensure its sustainable and healthy development) and attach importance to the study of the old-age security system. Give full play to its positive role) regular research on the progress of new rural insurance, improve data statistics.
【学位授予单位】：中国农业科学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F323.8;F842.67

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